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Opening Line in 49ers vs Patriots Week 7 Matchup Favors New England By 3.5

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Oct 19, 2020 · 5:53 AM PDT

New England Patriots quarterback Cam Newton
New England Patriots quarterback Cam Newton celebrates his touchdown pass to Devin Asiasi in the second half of an NFL football game against the New York Jets, Sunday, Jan. 3, 2021, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)
  • The New England Patriots (2-3) host the San Francisco 49ers (3-3) in Week 7 (Oct. 25, 4:25 pm EST)
  • The Pats opened up as a 3.5-point favorite despite failing to score a touchdown in Week 6
  • Read below for analysis on which way the line will move ahead of kickoff

For the first time since 2002, the New England Patriots are below .500 after five games. That 2002 season also marked the last time the Pats failed to win 10-games, and they’ll now need to reel off eight wins in their final 11 contests to crack the double-digit win mark.

That’s because New England is fresh off yet another defeat, this time to the Denver Broncos. The Pats shockingly sit third in the AFC East, behind Buffalo and Miami, and will look to snap a two-game losing streak when the San Francisco 49ers come to town in Week 7.

49ers vs Patriots Opening Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
San Francisco 49ers +3.5 (-110) +138 OTB
New England Patriots -3.5 (-110) -167 OTB

Odds taken Oct. 18th at DraftKings.

The 49ers snapped a two-game losing streak of their own on Sunday Night Football in Week 6, upsetting the LA Rams as a 2.5-point underdog. The win improved San Fan to 3-3 ATS, but online sportsbooks still made New England a 3.5-point favorite in Foxborough.

Niners Bounce Back

Jimmy Garoppolo entered Week 6 dealing with a high ankle sprain and fresh off the worst performance of his career. Garpoppolo was picked off twice and completed just 7-of-17 passes before being pulled against the Fins in Week 5, but rebounded nicely against the Rams.

Jimmy G completed 70% of his passes, for 268 yards and 3 TD, while racking up a quarterback rating of 124.3. He peppered his alpha tight end George Kittle with 10 targets, which the former Iowa Hawkeye converted into 109 yards and a score.

The Niners offensive line was excellent in pass protection and run blocking, holding LA’s sixth ranked pass rush unit without a sack, and propelling San Fran runners to 122 yards.

On the other side of the ball, they held the Rams to their lowest output of the season. Jared Goff manged just 198 passing yards, and LA’s number one rushing attack by DVOA produced just 113 yards on the ground.

One bit of news to monitor throughout the week will be the status of Raheem Mostert. The 49ers leading rusher left the game with an ankle injury and did not return.

Patriots Show Major Rust

A big reason for New England’s sloppy 18-12 loss to Denver was a lack of preparation. The Pats barely practiced over the past two weeks due to multiple positive COVID-19 tests, and Cam Newton was away from the team from October 2nd to 15th.

Newton was picked off twice by the Broncos and finished with just 157 yards on 25 attempts. He did add 76 yards on the ground and a score, while his 16 receiving yards ranked fourth on the team.

This game could have been a lot uglier if not for an admirable performance by the defense. New England held Denver to 299 total yards, forced two turnovers and didn’t allow a single touchdown.

The loss marked the first time in the Bill Belichick era that the Pats failed to win when not surrendering a touchdown, snapping a 39-game winning streak under those circumstances.

Line Likely to Move Towards San Francisco

The New England offense was so bad in Week 6 that’s it’s hard to imagine bettors flocking to the window to bet the Pats. This line feels at least half a point too high, if not higher, and the money is sure to come in on the Niners.

Despite looking atrocious in Week 5, the 49ers still drew enough action in Week 6 to push the line against the Rams in their favor. Now, after a convincing win and a second straight Patriots defeat, it would be shocking if New England closed as more than a field goal favorite.

If you like San Fran, act now. Because come Sunday morning, this line could look a whole lot different.

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