Opening Odds to Lead NFL in Passing Yards in 2019: Mahomes, Ryan & Luck All Given 4-1 Odds
By Robert Duff in NFL Football
Updated: April 11, 2020 at 6:21 pm EDTPublished:
- Sportsbooks list Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes as co-favorite to lead the NFL in passing this season
- Andrew Luck of the Indianapolis Colts, Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons and Mahomes are all given odds of +400
- Reigning passing yardage champion Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers is the fifth betting choice at +750
Sportsbooks are favoring a new arm to sling its way to the NFL passing yardage title during the 2019 season. The sportsbook has established Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs, Andrew Luck of the Indianapolis Colts and Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons as co-favorites to lead the league in yards gained through the air. Each QB is listed at odds of +400.
2019 NFL Passing Yardage Leader Odds
| Quarterback (Team) | 2019 NFL Passing Yardage Leader Odds |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) | +400 |
| Andrew Luck (Colts) | +400 |
| Matt Ryan (Falcons) | +400 |
| Aaron Rodgers (Packers) | +650 |
| Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers) | +750 |
| Drew Brees (Saints) | +1200 |
| Baker Mayfield (Browns) | +1200 |
| Jared Goff (Rams) | +1600 |
| Jameis Winston (Buccaneers) | +1600 |
| Philip Rivers (Chargers) | +2000 |
| Tom Brady (Patriots) | +2500 |
*Odds taken on 07/05/19. Follow the link in the table above for a complete list of all contenders.
Defending champion Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers is the fifth betting choice. Seven-time winner Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints is listed as odds of +1200.
Patrick Comes out Passing
In his first season as an NFL starter, Mahomes took the Chiefs to within a win of the Super Bowl. With 5,097 yards through the air, he was nipped for the title by Roethlisberger (5,129).
This is probably one of my favorite throws of the year! What you think? @N_shim_9er https://t.co/ENiSyFirTr
— Patrick Mahomes II (@PatrickMahomes) July 3, 2019
Mahomes dialed it back in the latter stages of the season, though. He threw for at least 300 yards in nine of his first 11 games. He did so just once in his last five games.
With a year’s experience under his belt, look for Mahomes to be better and his numbers to be bigger.
Is It Ryan or Luck?
Even during his MVP season, Ryan didn’t lead the NFL in passing yards. He’s been in the top 10 nine times. It’s a fact of historic record that Matt Schaub, Ryan’s backup last season, has led the NFL in passing yardage more times than Ryan (1-0).
If #MattRyan finishes 2019 with his 2010s season average of 4,485 passing yards, he will close out the decade with 44,849 passing yards.#Colts QB #PeytonManning finished the 2000s with 42,254 passing yards.
Now, let’s not talk era adjustment or mention the name #DrewBrees. pic.twitter.com/IKgVDxtLB3
— Ryan Michael (@theryanmichael) July 2, 2019
Last year’s third-place finish was just the second time he’s cracked the top three. Ryan’s not a sound investment.
Likewise, Luck is a consistent performer who’s never topped out as #1.
Andrew Luck has a knack for making magical plays. This play from 2016 in London was about an inch from being a career highlight for Luck. #Colts
(Requested by @AlexKahn28) pic.twitter.com/Ltvl5lQEKJ— Collin Telesz (@CT_Colts) June 20, 2019
He’s been in the top 10 in passing yards four times but Luck’s best campaign saw him finish third in 2014.
Chiming in on Big Ben
Antonio Brown is gone, so does that mean you simply throw out Roethlisberger as a contender? Yes, but that’s not the reason why. Big Ben still has weapons. But last year was a one-off.
Ben Roethlisberger going into the summer on a completion. pic.twitter.com/CLvxsnqRQr
— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) June 16, 2019
The previous time he led the league in passing was 2014. Roethlisberger finished fifth in 2017 and out of the top 10 in 2016.
.@DrewBrees: All-time passing yardage 👑
This moment never gets old.62 days until #NFL100! (via @NFLThrowback) pic.twitter.com/GTFDfqErC7
— NFL (@NFL) July 5, 2019
Speaking of old hands, what about Brees? Well, the facts are the he hasn’t topped the NFL since 2016 and the Saints are more of a balanced attack these days.
Thanks @TomBrady … bucket list check !!! I got hands still. @slic pic.twitter.com/BTXPOeY4uS
— Baron Davis (@BaronDavis) July 3, 2019
Likewise, as much as people love New England’s Tom Brady, the dude will be 42 when the season starts. He dropped to seventh in the league last sason.
It’s Pat
Maybe his arm got tired, or maybe he just balanced out the ledger a bit more in the latter stages of the season. No matter. As great as he was last year, Mahomes still possesses tremendous upside. He’s only going to get better. He’s devoted his offseason to self-improvement, seeking to reduce his body fat percentage to single digits. It was at 12-percent.
Patrick Mahomes torched man coverage last season for a 120.7 passer rating! pic.twitter.com/K8YnX5Sit5
— PFF (@PFF) July 4, 2019
Mahomes might not throw for the combo of 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns again this season but he will lead the NFL in passing yardage.
Bet on it.
Sports Writer
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
