- Todd Gurley had the most rushing touchdowns last year but enters 2019 facing serious injury concerns
- Ezekiel Elliot and Saquon Barkley were the top two RB in rushing attempts last season
- Barkley is expected to play a major role in the Giants’ offense after they traded Odell Beckham Jr. to Cleveland
When the favorites for an NFL futures bet are paying +800, it’s value you need to investigate.
Sportsbooks have listed Ezekiel Elliot and Saquon Barkley as the favorites to record the most regular season rushing touchdowns this year. Both are listed at +800 and you could argue it’s great value on either one of them but it’s the New York Giants star that has my attention.
Odds to Score the Most Regular Season Rushing TDs in 2019
|Who Will Record the Most Regular Season Rushing Touchdowns?||Odds|
*Odds taken 07/10/19
Reigning Rookie of the Year Primed for Big Season
Saquon Barkley was a stud in his first season, capturing the Rookie of the Year trophy thanks to 2,031 total yards and 15 TD. Of those 15 touchdowns, 11 came on the ground and that’s what matters most here. Only four players had more rushing touchdowns – Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, and James Conner.
Saquon Barkley had the most avoided tackles in the NFL last season ??? pic.twitter.com/DPNNUaJ7gV
— PFF NY Giants (@PFF_Giants) July 4, 2019
Considering the Giants plan is to start Eli Manning at quarterback, it’s likely Barkley will have an increased role in the offense in 2019. Even if Manning is eventually replaced, rookie Daniel Jones would need to lean on Barkley as well. With a year of growth and an elevated role in the offense, I’d expect Barkley to end up north of 11 touchdowns.
Other Contenders Facing Big Question Marks
Todd Gurley has too many injury concerns to trust entering the upcoming season, and Alvin Kamara is just as much of a threat to snag a receiving touchdown as he is a rushing one. Ezekiel Elliot will be great again, but he only had six rushing touchdowns last year thanks to Amari Cooper and an expanded passing game in Dallas. Nick Chubb plays for the Browns, who for the first time in forever actually can say they have too many weapons for any one player to rack up gaudy TD totals.
Five players. Age 25 or younger.
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) July 9, 2019
Derrick Henry and James Conner are threats, but Barkley appears to be the most likely player to reach double digit touchdowns on the ground. There is too much opportunity coupled with too much talent when it comes to Barkley.
More Attempts Provide More Opportunity to Score
The top two players in rushing attempts last season were Elliot and Barkley. With many rushing touchdowns coming within yards of the goal line, sometimes it can boil down to luck and opportunity more than talent. Betting on the players who will have the ball the most is definitely a smart play. For this reason, more than any other, Elliot is my second choice and Barkley is my first.
Pick: Saquon Barkley (+800)
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