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Opening Texans vs Patriots Odds for the 2026 Divisional Round

Sascha Paruk

By Sascha Paruk in NFL News

Published:


Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud throwing a pass
Oct 13, 2024; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) throws the ball against the New England Patriots during the first half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images
  • The New England Patriots will host the Houston Texans in the 2026 NFL Divisional Round
  • The Patriots have opened as slight home favorites
  • See the opening Texans vs Patriots odds, including the spread, moneyline, and total for Sunday, Jan. 18

The Houston Texans (13-5, 6-3 away, 10-8 ATS) routed Pittsburgh in the final Wild Card game on Monday night, setting up a Divisional Round clash with the New England Patriots (15-3, 7-3 home, 12-5-1 ATS) on Sunday, January 18th. The winner will face either the #6 Buffalo Bills or #1 Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday, January 25th.

Dating back to the regular season, the Texans have now won an NFL-best ten straight games. But oddsmakers expect that streak to come to an end next weekend, listing New England as a slight favorite in the opening Texans vs Patriots odds.

Opening Texans vs Patriots Odds & Spread

Bet TypeTexansPatriots
Spread+2.5 (-105)-2.5 (-115)
Moneyline+122-144
TotalO 41.5 (-110)U 41.5 (-110)

The Texans/Patriots point spread has opened at New England -2.5 (-115). The Texans are priced at -105 to cover as 2.5-point road underdogs. On the moneyline, the Patriots are a relatively short -144 (59.02% implied win probability), with Houston at +122 (45.05% implied win probability) to win straight-up.

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These teams haven’t met since Week 6 of the 2024 regular season, when the Texans romped to a 41-21 win in New England over a rookie Drake Maye.

H2H Team Stats: HOU vs NE

StatTexansPatriots
Points Per Game23.828.8
Points Allowed Per Game17.418.8
Yards Per Game327.0379.4
Yards Allowed Per Game277.2295.2
Turnover Differential+17+3
DVOA Rank5th4th
Overall PFF Rank4th9th

Houston and New England compiled their gaudy win/loss records in very different ways during the regular season. Houston used a tenacious, takeaway-happy defense to both grind opponents down and give its own offense short fields. The Patriots averaged 52.4 more yards per game than the Texans on offense.

The Patriots booked their ticket to the Divisional Round with a 16-3 home win over the Chargers. The Pats put on a defensive clinic, limiting Los Angeles to just 206 total yards of offense and holding the Bolts to 1-of-10 on third down.

Not to be outdone, the Texans held the Steelers to 175 yards of total offense in their 30-6 win on Monday night. As its done all season long, the Houston defense forced multiple turnovers, returning both a fumble recover and an interception for touchdowns.

Bookmark SBD’s NFL odds page to see up-to-the-minute lines for every 2026 NFL playoff game.

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Sascha Paruk
Sascha Paruk

Managing Editor

Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.

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