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Over/Under on Jameis Winston TD Passes Set at 26.5; Passing Yards at 4,400

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Will Jameis Winston surpassing 26.5 passing touchdowns and 4400 yards in 2019? Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr).
  • Jameis Winston is entering the final year of his contract with Tampa Bay this season.
  • Winston has never passed for more than 4,090 yards in a season.
  • Winston threw 19 touchdowns in 11 games last season.

As we head into the 2019 NFL season, Jameis Winston is one of the most intriguing quarterbacks in terms of fantasy and individual performance. The former first overall pick has talent but he’s been inconsistent. Is this the year he finally puts it together with Bruce Arians as his head coach? If so, there could be value betting ‘over’ on some of his props.

Jameis Winston 2019 Props

Prop Line Over Odds Under Odds
Total Passing Touchdowns 26.5 -125 -105
Total Passing Yards 4,400 -115 -115

Odds taken 08/15/19.

Can Winston Approach Career-Highs?

Although it might surprise you, these over-under numbers for Winston – the 26.5 touchdown passes and 4400 passing yards – would either approach or be new career-highs. Winston’s high watermark for touchdowns was 28 in the 2016 season and he’s never passed for more than 4,090 yards in full season.

The main reason why there’s optimism surrounding Winston this season is the new head coach. Arians is known as a quarterback guru and has previously helped talented-but-inconsistent quarterbacks put it together. Arians’ offenses are also pass-happy, so that’s why many are bullish on Winston’s prospects in 2019.

Quarterback Of Bruce Arians Offenses In Last Three Years

Year Quarterback(s) Total Passing Yards
2017 Carson Palmer / Blaine Gabbert / Drew Stanton 3,958
2016 Carson Palmer 4,233
2015 Carson Palmer 4,671

As you can see, Arians has a strong record for quarterback success in his system.

Even during the Cardinals ill fated 2017 season in which a season-ending injury to Carson Palmer in Week 7 left him with just Blaine Gabbert and Drew Stanton behind center, the trio nearly combined for nearly 4000 yards.

Will Winston Surpass 26.5 Passing Touchdowns?

Only once has Winston topped this number as his totals in the other three seasons were 22, 19 and a 19. However, keep in mind that he had 19 passing touchdowns in just 11 games last season. Fleshed out over 16 games, that would have resulted in 27.6 touchdowns last year.

It’s also important to note how Winston finished the year versus how he started. Remember, he started the year suspended and when he finally won his job back from Ryan Fitzpatrick, he actually had 11 interceptions versus eight touchdowns in his first five outings. He tossed 11 touchdowns and just three interceptions in his final six starts.

By all accounts, Winston has been more consistent in training camp this year and he’s worked on his mechanics to clean up mistakes. Arians has said he’s seen “the light go on” and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich has praised him.

The reality here is that this has become a pass-first league and 12 quarterbacks had at least 26 passing touchdowns last season. The ground game in Tampa Bay isn’t very good but Winston has a stellar wide receiver duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

As long as Winston is healthy this season, I expect him to go over this mark.

Jameis Winston Career Passing Yards By Season

Year Passing Yards
2018 2,992
2017 3,504
2016 4,090
2015 4,042

Will Winston Surpass 4400 Passing Yards?

This is a tricky prop as Winston has never even finished a season within 300 yards of that number. However, he’s more than capable.

The challenge with Winston is consistency. Taking a look at his 2018 numbers, he had five 300-yard games, four of which were with 336 passing yards or more. At the same time, he had four games with 213 passing yards or less. He’s been a real boom-or-bust type of quarterback.

The good news is that 4400 yards is not a really big bar to hop over. That boils down to 275 passing yards per game, which is not far off his career average (261.2). Winston actually averaged 269.5 in 2017 and 272 last season, so we’re really only asking him to throw for a few more yards per game.

On the surface, that might not seem like a big deal – especially in an air attack oriented Arians offense.

However, keep in mind that only six quarterbacks surpassed 4400 passing yards last season,  while just three inn 2017 and four in 2016 passed the mark.

Established stars like Philip Rivers and Drew Brees didn’t get over that mark; do you really think Winston gets there?

I think he’ll get over the touchdown mark but falls short of 4400 passing yards in 2019.

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