Over/Under for Most Touchdown Passes Thrown in 2019 Set at 42.5, Most Passing Yards Offered at 5,100
- Oddsmakers are offering prop wagers on most passing yards and touchdown passes in 2019
- The over/under for TD passes is set at 42.5; the total for passing yards is 5,100 yards
- Should bettors wager over or under on the latest 2019 NFL props?
When it comes to passing yards and passing touchdowns, oddsmakers are asking what will come to pass during the 2019 NFL regular season.
The sportsbook is offering a pair of prop bets on totals for NFL quarterbacks. The first centers on how many yards the league’s leading passer will have in 2019, with the bar set at 5,100.
The second prop covers touchdown passes for the league leader, with the total at 42.5.
Let’s take them in order.
Most Passing Yards By Any NFL Quarterback During 2019 Regular Season
| Over/Under | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 5,100 | -115 |
| Under 5,100 | -115 |
*Odds taken 8/19/19.
With this prop, oddsmakers are optimistically anticipating that the NFL will continue its trend away from the run game toward an even more pass-happy league.
Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger works through a downpour during training camp Tuesday in Latrobe. pic.twitter.com/ZNo2uzVrid
— Matt Freed (@MattFreedPhoto) August 13, 2019
Last season, Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers became just the seventh NFL quarterback to go over 5,101 yards in a single season when he piled up 5,129 yards
. Both Roethlisberger and Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs surpassed 5,000 yards, the first time that had happened since 2013.
NFL Passing Yardage Leaders: 2016-19
| Season | Leading Total (QB) | QBs Over 5,101 Yards |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 5,129 (Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers) | 1 |
| 2017 | 4,577 (Tom Brady, Patriots) | 0 |
| 2016 | 5,208 (Drew Brees, Saints) | 1 |
While it’s only happened on seven occasions, it’s worthy of note that all seven 5,101-plus yard seasons have come since the 2011 season. It’s definitely a recent NFL trend.
New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees topped 5,101 yards in three successive seasons – 2011 (5,476), 2012 (5,177) and 2013 (5,162). He’s the only passer to achieve this feat in consecutive years. And Brees accomplished this feat again in 2016, throwing for 5,208 yards.
Most games with 300+ passing yards in 2018:
1. Patrick Mahomes: 10
T-2. Matt Ryan: 8
T-2. Ben Roethlisberger: 8
T-2. Jared Goff: 8
5. Andrew Luck: 7
6. Drew Brees: 6— Field Yates (@FieldYates) August 14, 2019
Tom Brady of the Patriots (5,235) also did it in 2011. Peyton Manning on the Denver Broncos passed for an NFL-record 5,477 yards in 2013.
It’s also interesting to note that while 5,101 yards was surpassed five times between 2011-13, it’s only been bettered twice since.
Pick: Under 5,101 (-115)
Most Touchdown Passes By Any NFL Quarterback During 2019 Regular Season
| Over/Under | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 42.5 | -115 |
| Under 42.5 | -115 |
For much of last season, it appeared as if the NFL would witness a new touchdown pass record. In his first season as a starter, Mahomes came out of the blocks on fire.
Mahomes passed for 10 TDs in his first two games, 13 in his first three, and 37 through his first 11 games. He threw for at least four TDs in six of those 11 games.
QB confab here in Pittsburgh. #Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes and #Steelers’ Ben Roethlisberger, chatting pregame. One is expected to play about a half “or somewhere thereabouts” (per Andy Reid), the other not at all. pic.twitter.com/Snmw4CIImt
— Aditi Kinkhabwala (@AKinkhabwala) August 17, 2019
It would be wrong to suggest that Mahomes tailed off. After all, he completed 13 touchdown passes over Kansas City’s last five games of the season. Still, he fell five shy of Manning’s 2013 NFL mark of 55 TD passes for the Broncos.
Mahomes joined Brady (2007) in second spot on the single-season list at 50 TDs. And Brady did it during a season when his Patriots went 16-0.
Quarterbacks to throw 50 TDs in a single season: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and now… @PatrickMahomes5! #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/ZZQzt0h5vF
— NFL (@NFL) December 30, 2018
Along with Manning, they are the only three QBs in NFL history to toss for 50 touchdowns in a single season.
Regardless, you’d think that playing the over on 42.5 touchdown passes this season would be a given.
Well, better think again.
NFL Touchdown Pass Leaders: 2016-19
| Season | Leading Total (QB) | QBs Over 42.5 TDs |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 50 (Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs) | 1 |
| 2017 | 34 (Russell Wilson, Seahawks) | 0 |
| 2016 | 40 (Aaron Rodgers, Packers) | 0 |
Last season, Andrew Luck of the Indianapolis Colts was second in the NFL in TD passes with 39. But in 2017, that number would’ve led the league by five.
That season, Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks (34) was the NFL TD pass champion. In 2016, Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers was the lone QB to get to 40 TD passes, leading the league with exactly that total.
Because it's 50 days until #Kickoff2017…
ALL of Tom Brady's 50 regular season passing TDs from 2007! https://t.co/cYD56850ym
— NFL (@NFL) July 19, 2017
In fact, between 2014-17, no quarterback threw for more than 40 touchdowns in a single season.
The three prior seasons, though, quarterbacks were lighting up the end zone. Manning fired for his record 55 scores in 2013. Brees led the league with 43 in 2012. And in 2011, Brees also showed the way with 46 TD passes.
Pat Mahomes is the best QB in the NFL right now. There is no debate.
— uSTADIUM Fantasy (@uSTADIUMFantasy) August 16, 2019
Mahomes may slip back a bit from his sensational 2018 campaign. But not that far.
As well, there’s a deep crop of rookie receivers entering the league this season. The passing game should only continue to gain yards with NFL offenses.
Pick: Over 42.5 (-115)
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
