Over/Under Sacks for 2019 NFL Rookies: Nick Bosa Favored to Record the Most
By Chris Amberley in NFL Football
Updated: April 7, 2020 at 12:46 pm EDTPublished:
- You can wager on the sack totals for the 2019 NFL defensive rookie class
- Nick Bosa has the highest projection and is the best pass rushing prospect since Myles Garrett
- What are the best bets?
Nick Bosa has genetics that most men would give their left eye for. He’s the fourth Bosa to be taken in the first round of the NFL draft and the early frontrunner to record the most sacks among rookies in 2019.
2019 NFL Over/Under Rookie Sack Totals
| Player | Projected Sacks in 2019 | Over Odds | Under Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bosa | 9 | -115 | -115 |
| Josh Allen | 7 | -115 | -115 |
| Quinnen Williams | 6.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Clelin Ferrell | 5.5 | -115 | -115 |
*Odds taken April 29
Bosa is also the favorite to win Defensive Rookie of the Year, but his sack projection falls slightly below his brother Joey’s first year production with the Chargers.
Nick Bosa Over/Under 9 Sacks
Nick is a carbon copy of his brother, only he’s stronger, faster and more explosive. He had a higher career pass rushing grade in college and was on par with Joey’s junior level pass rushing productivity as a sophomore.
DRAFT FACT: Nick Bosa posted a 93.6 career collegiate pass-rush grade per PFF (his brother Joey's was 93.0)
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) April 26, 2019
They each have the speed and power to win inside or outside, and if Joey was able to notch 10.5 sacks in just 12 games as rookie, there’s no reason Nick can’t exceed that total over a full 16 game season.
New San Francisco 49ers edge defender Nick Bosa's career grades during his time at Ohio State! pic.twitter.com/sIxJg1kKhb
— PFF (@PFF) April 26, 2019
He recorded 17.5 sacks at Ohio State despite missing most of his junior year, and only Myles Garrett has earned a higher collegiate pass rushing grade from Pro Football Focus since 2014.
Nick also has the luxury of joining a 49ers team that all of a sudden boasts one of the most intimidating defensive lines in football. He’ll line up alongside DeForest Buckner and Dee Ford, who combined for 25 sacks last season, and the presence of other elite rushers will earn him more 1-on-1 assignments, which he should dominate.
Pick: Bosa Over 9 Sacks (-115)
Quinnen Williams Over/Under 6.5 Sacks
While Pro Football Focus’ grading system is exceptionally high on Bosa, it’s equally bullish on Quinnen Williams.
The former Alabama defensive tackle earned a record-setting PFF pass rushing grade in 2018, in large part due to the whopping 55 pressures he generated.
Quinnen Williams was the highest-graded DI we have ever had in the PFF College Era. The Jets got an absolute play-maker. pic.twitter.com/0xW3YcrXKW
— PFF College (@PFF_College) April 28, 2019
He posted a 16.7% pressure rate last season and a 19.4% pass rush win rate. He had at least three pressures in nine of 15 games, and has the versatility to play all three positions along the defensive line.
The highest-graded defensive player in the nation, Alabama interior D-Lineman Quinnen Williams with the sack for the safety@PFF_College pic.twitter.com/Cbv1N72WKl
— Steve Palazzolo (@PFF_Steve) October 14, 2018
Unlike Bosa, he won’t be surrounded by elite talent, but he’s a nightmare to handle and will instantly improve a Jets squad that ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in pressure rate, pass rush win rate and pass rush productivity in 2018.
The Jets ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in pressure rate, pass rush win rate and pass rush productivity in 2018.
He produced eight sacks in his final season at Bama and needs just seven sacks to cover the over for this prop. With the speed, power and athleticism he demonstrated last year, it certainly seems well within his range of outcomes.
Pick: Williams Over 6.5 Sacks (-115)
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
