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Packers Open as 1.5-Point Favorites Over Rams in Week 12 Matchup

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Updated Nov 21, 2021 · 6:04 PM PST

Aaron Rodgers launches a throw
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) throws a pass during the first half of an NFL football game against the Minnesota Vikings, Sunday, Nov. 21, 2021, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)
  • The Green Bay Packers (8-3) opened as 1.5-point favorites over the LA Rams (7-3) in Week 12 on Sunday (Nov. 28th, 4:25 pm ET)
  • Green Bay was defeated 34-31 on a last second field goal by Minnesota in Week 11, while Los Angeles was on its bye week
  • Read below for analysis on which way the line will move ahead of kickoff

Two of the top-eight contenders in the Super Bowl 56 futures market square off in Week 12, as the Green Bay Packers host the Los Angeles Rams. Green Bay lost a nail-biter in Minnesota 34-31 in Week 11, rallying back from a two score deficit, only to lose on the final play of the game.

LA meanwhile, was on bye in Week 11, but dropped back-to-back prime time games in Weeks 9 and 10. The Rams were upset at home by Tennessee two weeks ago on Sunday Night Football, and were blown out last week on Monday Night Football 31-10 by San Francisco.

Rams vs Packers Opening Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
LA Rams +106 +1.5 (-110) OFF
Green Bay Packers -124 -1.5 (-110) OFF

Odds as of Nov. 21st at FanDuel.

The Packers opened up as a 1.5-point favorite, while the total is currently off the board. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 pm ET on Sunday (Nov. 28th) at Lambeau Field, a place where Green Bay has yet to taste defeat this season.

Rodgers Shines Despite Toe Injury

The Packers loss to the Vikings, overshadowed a classic Aaron Rodgers performance. The reigning MVP threw for a season-high 385 yards and four touchdowns, and was on the field for four consecutive TD drives.

He tossed two scores to Davante Adams, and one each to Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Josiah Deguara, despite playing with a severe toe injury. Rodgers was held out of practice on Wednesday and Thursday this week, and told reporters after the game it’s considered more severe than turf toe. He’ll likely miss most of Green Bay’s practice time this week, but said he still plans on playing versus the Rams.

After holding seven straight opponents to 22 points or less, the Packers defense was exposed by Minnesota. Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson shredded them for 8 receptions, 169 yards and 2 TD, while Green Bay yielded 408 yards in total. The Packers were playing without two of their leading pass rushers Rashan Gary and Za’Darius Smith, and the defense failed to generate the type of pressure it had been over the previous couple months.

Green Bay was also missing stud left tackle David Bakhtiari, who’s yet to return from last season’s ACL tear, and lost another key lineman on Sunday. Elgton Jenkins, who’s been excelling at left tackle in Bakhtiari’s absence, went down with a knee injury and had to be carted off the field.

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Rams Reeling

Speaking of injuries, LA was dealt a huge blow last week when Robert Woods tore his ACL. Fortunately, the Rams had just signed Odell Beckham Jr. the day before, but he couldn’t fill Woods’ shoes against the 49ers in Week 10.

For the second straight week, LA scored fewer than 17 points and Matthew Stafford tossed two interceptions. The Rams put up only 278 total yards, and held the ball for roughly half as long as San Francisco.

They allowed 30+ points for just the second time all season, and were gashed by the Niners rushing attack. San Fran ran the ball 44 times for 156 yards, and a score.

Darrell Henderson left the game to be evaluated for a concussion, but later returned. Other than Woods, LA’s roster is fairly healthy, and the defense should get a boost if newcomer Von Miller is able to play a full compliment of snaps in his second game.

Rams vs Packers Line Analysis

Green Bay is a league best 8-2-1 against the spread this season, and that won’t go unnoticed by bettors leading up to this game. Neither will the fact that these two teams met at Lambeau Field in the playoffs last January, and the Packers cruised to a 14-point win.

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Stafford meanwhile, is 7-13 all-time versus the Packers, and has underwhelmed in back-to-back outings. Even with Rodgers’ toe issue, and the plethora of other injuries Green Bay is dealing with, expect this line to move slightly in the Packers’ favor.

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