Upcoming Match-ups

75% of Bets Have Packers Covering Spread vs Chiefs; 70% of the Money is on KC – Picks & Odds

Packers vs Chiefs
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are 4-point road favorites against the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. Photo by KA Sports (Flickr) [CC License].
  • The Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs square off on Sunday Night Football (8:20 PM ET, Oct. 27)
  • The Packers are 4-point road favorites, but 70% of the ATS money is on the Chiefs
  • Get the odds, our pick, and all the info you need to bet the game below

The Green Bay Packers (6-1) square off with the Kansas City Chiefs (5-2) on Sunday Night Football (8:20 PM ET, Oct. 27) in KC’s first gull game without the reigning MVP.

Speaking of MVP’s, Aaron Rodgers is now the favorite to win the award after a masterful six touchdown performance in Week 7 against the Raiders. Green Bay has won six of seven to start the season, and are currently 4-point road favorites at Arrowhead in our Packers vs Chiefs odds and stats.

Packers vs Chiefs Spread and Money Breakdown

Team Spread ATS Money%
Green Bay Packers -4.0 (-119) 30.0%
Kansas City Chiefs +4.0 (-101) 70.0%

*All odds & figures taken October 26

According to some books, 75% of the ATS bets are on Green Bay, but only 30% of the ATS money. That’s a strong indication that sharp bettors are wagering on KC. Sure enough, sportsbooks are reporting that 82% of the sharp ATS money is on the Chiefs, which begs the question: What do the wise guys see in KC?

The Matt Moore Experiment

The look ahead line with Patrick Mahomes under center was KC -3, which gives you an idea of just how valuable he is to this team. Andy Reid is Pro Football Focus’ highest rated play caller this season and he’ll need to dig deep into his bag of tricks to make Matt Moore a serviceable replacement.

Moore completed just 52% of his passes last week in relief, and more than half of his passing yards came on one throw to Tyreek Hill. If we remove that play, his average yards per attempt would be well below 6.0, and he doesn’t possess the accuracy or arm strength we’re used to seeing from Mahomes. In his last extended period of action in 2017, he had a 54.9 passing grade, threw more interceptions than touchdowns and was sacked three times per game.

Now he has to face one of the league’s top coverage units, that just happens to possess two of the NFL’s elite pass rushers. Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith have combined for 13 sacks already this season and will give Moore fits all game long.

Firing on All Cylinders

After a slow start on offense in 2019, the Packers appear to have finally figured out the Matt LaFleur scheme. Green Bay is averaging over 30 points a game since Week 3 and Rodgers is PFF’s highest graded quarterback this season.

He’s top-5 in the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns and now gets one of the softest matchups in football. KC is PFF’s 26th ranked defense and generates pressure at the league’s fifth lowest rate. They rank dead last against the run and will be missing their top two defensive linemen.

Even if the Chiefs can somehow contain Rodgers, Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams are poised to run all over this putrid KC rush defense. Green Bay will have no issues finding the paint and you can expect another 30+ point outing from the Pack.

Go Pack Go

The Chiefs won’t be able to match the Packers offensive production without Mahomes, making Green Bay an easy play in this matchup. Without Mahomes, the Packers are significantly better on both sides of the ball, and with Frank Clark and Chris Jones on the sidelines, Rodgers should have all day to pick the KC secondary apart.

Author Image
Discussion

Let's have fun and keep it civil.