Packers vs Bears Predictions & Closing Lines for Saturday’s Wild Card Game

• The Packers are 2-point road favorites over the Bears in Saturday’s Wild Card game
• Wind gusts up to 28 mph have crushed the total from 47.5 to 45.5
• See below for my Packers vs Bears predictions, plus the closing line

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We’ve got ourselves a third installment of Packers vs Bears in just six weeks, and this time playoff seeding is on the line. The Packers (11-6, 5-3 away) head to Soldier Field to face the Bears (11-6, 6-2 home) in what’s shaping up to be a brutal weather game Saturday night.

Online sportsbooks have flipped this line completely. Chicago opened as 1-point favorites, but sharp money has hammered the Packers all week, pushing them to 2-point road chalk in the latest NFL odds. Even more telling is what’s happened to the total, which has plummeted 2 full points.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 pm ET from Soldier Field, in Chicago, IL, on Amazon Prime. Here are my Packers vs Bears predictions, as well as the closing line.

Packers vs Bears Prediction

• Packers ML (-130)
• Under 46.5 (-110)

Brady Trettenero

Sports Betting Dime • January 10, 2026 at 10:56pm

Pick

Odds

AwayTeam

Moneyline

NFL • Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

-130 on BetMGM

SCHEDULED • 01/11/2026

See all 2 picks

Betslip #1768085781847-481c-306

I’m riding with the Packers moneyline and the under in what should be a low-scoring slugfest. The line movement shows you exactly where the sharp money is going.

Green Bay opened at pick’em on Monday morning. By Tuesday evening, they were giving 1.5 points. Despite 70-71% of public bets backing Chicago, the line kept creeping towards the Packers.

When you see that kind of action, respected bettors are loading up on Green Bay. They’re getting a playoff-tested QB in Jordan Love going against Caleb Williams making his first postseason start.

Soldier Field Weather Forecast

The weather forecast is downright nasty. Temperatures will be in the low 30s at kickoff, but wind gusts reaching 20-28 mph will make it feel like single digits to low teens. There’s also a chance of snow flurries.

𝗕𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗞𝗜𝗡𝗚: A large SNOW storm is expected to hit near the Chicago area for the Bears – Packers wildcard game.

The weather is predicted to feel like 9 degrees and with wind up to 39 miles per hour.

Saturday night is looking to be a classic 🍿 pic.twitter.com/YLR4JXhuFt

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) January 9, 2026

That kind of wind kills passing games. The market knows it too. The total opened at 47.5 and has been hammered down to 45.5 at most books. Some even hit 44.0 briefly before stabilizing.

Since 2001, Wild Card games have gone under nearly 60% of the time. That number jumps even higher in cold, windy outdoor conditions. Sharp bettors are pounding the under, with 55-67% of handle backing it despite more balanced ticket counts.

Jordan Love vs Caleb Williams

Jordan Love is 4-0 against the Bears in games he’s started and finished. He’s coming off a Week 16 concussion but is fully healthy and ready to go. Meanwhile, Caleb Williams is making his playoff debut.

QBs making their first Wild Card start have gone 18-43 straight up since 2002. Williams has been solid this season, but playoff football is different, especially in these conditions.

The Packers have also won 15 of their last 17 games in Chicago, including the 2010 NFC Championship at Soldier Field. That edge matters.

Josh Jacobs Health Status

Josh Jacobs said this week he’s feeling the healthiest he’s been in over a month. That’s huge against a Bears defense that ranks 27th in rushing yards allowed per game at 134.5.

In the Week 14 meeting at Lambeau, Jacobs rushed for 86 yards and a TD on 4.3 yards per carry. Even in the Week 16 loss when Love got hurt, backup Emanuel Wilson gashed Chicago for 82 yards on 5.9 yards per carry.

Chicago has allowed 110+ rushing yards in 12 of 17 games this season, including three games over 200 yards. The weather conditions favor establishing the run, and Green Bay has the backs to do it.

Chicago Bears Defensive Stats

The Bears’ defense looks good on paper because they’ve forced 33 takeaways this season, leading the NFL with a +22 turnover differential. But their underlying metrics are shaky. They rank 27th in total yards allowed per game and surrendered the most passing TDs among playoff teams.

That turnover magic becomes less reliable in playoff football against a veteran QB who takes care of the ball. Love will have his full arsenal of weapons too.

Christian Watson X-Factor Potential

Christian Watson went off for 89 yards and 2 TDs in the Week 14 matchup when Love played the whole game. Watson has posted at least 80 receiving yards in three of his last five games.

Jordan Love with the fadeaway TD to Christian Watson!

CHIvsGB on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/ZSjle1vbj0

— NFL (@NFL) December 7, 2025

The Bears allowed 32 passing TDs this season, the most among any playoff team. Love also has Romeo Doubs (55 catches, 724 yards, 6 TDs) and Jayden Reed as options.

Even with the wind, Green Bay can work the short passing game to move the chains and keep drives alive. That keeps Chicago’s offense on the sideline.

Packers Bears Betting Prediction

Combining Packers ML and the under creates a clean game script. Green Bay controls the clock with Jacobs, Love makes enough plays when needed, and the defense forces Williams into mistakes in brutal weather.

The Packers can win 20-17, 23-20, or 24-21. All those scores stay comfortably under 44.5 while securing the moneyline. With Chicago relying on turnovers and Williams making his playoff debut in the biggest game of his life, I’m backing the more experienced team in a defensive battle.

This is playoff football in January at Soldier Field. Points will be hard to come by, and the team with the veteran QB usually finds a way.

Looking for more Packers vs Bears plays? Check out the following:

• Packers vs Bears same-game parlay
• Packers vs Bears player props
• Packers vs Bears picks and injury reports

Green Bay vs Chicago Closing Odds for Wild Card

Before placing any wagers on Saturday’s game, compare lines across multiple sportsbooks. The Packers moneyline ranges from -120 to -130 depending where you look, so it pays to shop.

For the spread, you’ll find between -1.5 and -2.5 available at different books. The under is sitting at 45.5 and 46.5 across most platforms with standard juice.

Odds as of Jan. 10 at 5:45 pm ET. Claim the bet365 bonus code before wagering on Wild Card Weekend.

Per the NFL public betting trends, Chicago is getting crushed with public money. The Bears are drawing 70% of spread tickets and 71% of moneyline bets. But the handle paints a different picture, with sharp action clearly on Green Bay based on that reverse line movement.

For the total, 61% of money is on the under at DraftKings despite slightly more tickets on the over. When sharps and squares disagree on totals, the smart money usually wins out.