Packers vs Bears Predictions, Picks, Betting Splits & Injury Reports (Wild Card)

• The Packers meet the Bears on Saturday, Jan. 10
• The Packers/Bears spread has moved across zero and now Green Bay is favored
• See my data-driven Packers vs Bears picks, predictions, updated lines and betting splits

The NFL’s oldest rivalry takes on new meaning as the Green Bay Packers (9-7-1, 4-4-1 away, 6-10-1 ATS, 9-8 O/U) travel to face the Chicago Bears (11-6, 6-2 home, 11-6 ATS, 8-9 O/U) in a Wild Card playoff battle with season-ending stakes. This NFC North battle features two teams that know each other intimately, with the Packers entering as slight road favorites despite playing at the hostile confines of Soldier Field. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 pm CT/8:00 pm ET with Amazon Prime Video carrying the broadcast.

The primary narrative centers on quarterback Jordan Love, who’s looking to validate his postseason credentials, facing a Bears defense anchored by pass rusher Montez Sweat (10 sacks) and safety Kevin Byard III (NFL-best seven INTs).

This article provides comprehensive betting analysis, diving deep into the team stats, odds, and betting trends to find the best Packers vs Bears picks and predictions.

Jump to: PICKS || LATEST ODDS || BETTING SPLITS || INJURY REPORTS

Packers vs Bears Wild Card Picks & Predictions

The playoff atmosphere transforms this matchup into something entirely different from their regular-season encounters, with the Bears’ home-field advantage amplified by the postseason intensity. My analysis points toward a grinding, defensive battle where field position and red-zone efficiency become paramount.

The tight 1.5-point spread reflects the true nature of this matchup – two evenly matched divisional foes who understand each other’s tendencies, making every possession crucial in a win-or-go-home scenario.

ATS Prediction: Chicago Bears +2.0 (-110 at Fanatics)

In playoff football, home-field advantage carries exponential weight, particularly in a venue as intimidating as Soldier Field in January. The Wild Card weather forecasts call for significant cross-winds, which will make explosive, downfield throws difficult. That plays right into the Bears’ hands. Chicago finished the regular season tied for third in rushing offense at PFF, compared to the Packers in 13th. Green Bay, on the other hand, was second in the league in passing offense, compared to the Bears in 15th. If aerial attacks are hampered by the cold, blustery weather, the Packers will be adversely impacted to a far greater degree.

The Packers’ offense will face its stiffest test against a Bears defensive front that generates consistent pressure without blitzing. Expect Chicago’s crowd to create communication issues for Love’s passing game, while the Bears’ offense benefits from simplified concepts designed to minimize mistakes and lean on their ground-and-pound attack.

Total Points: Under 44.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

Playoff football historically trends under, and the market movement from 46.5 to 44.5 indicates sharp money recognizing this reality, particularly in light of the inclement weather.

In their two regular-season meetings, the Packers and Bears combined for just 81 points in regulation time, averaging just over 40 points per four quarters. If the Green Bay offense is limited by the weather factors, Chicago will be able to lean even more heavily on its ground game to churn clock and shorten the game.

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears Wild Card Odds

As mentioned, the Packers/Bears spread opened with Chicago as a 1.5-point favorite and slight -110 favorites on the moneyline. Now the Packers are favored by as many as two points and the Chicago moneyline has climbed as high +110 at DraftKings. The best Green Bay moneyline is now -124 at FanDuel.

The total has dropped from 46.5 all the way to 44.5. All books are uniform on the total and there are only minor discrepancies in the over/under odds.

Vig-Free Win Probabilities:

• Green Bay Packers: 53.7%
• Chicago Bears: 46.3%

Packers vs Bears Public Betting: Sharp Money Signals Defensive Battle

The NFL public betting splits show strong confidence in the home underdog, creating an interesting dynamic where recreational money aligns with our analytical conclusions. However, the most telling indicator emerges in the totals market, where contrarian signals point toward a lower-scoring contest than casual bettors anticipate.

Current Handle Distribution:

• Spread: 69.52% backing Chicago Bears +1.5
• Moneyline: 65.12% supporting Bears outright victory
• Total Points: 54.12% on Over 44.5

The game-total market reveals sharp money influence, with larger wagers driving the line down from its 46.5 opener despite public preference for a higher-scoring game.

This creates a classic sharp-versus-public scenario on the total, where my under 44.5 pick fades recreational money while following professional action.

Packers vs Bears Injury Report: Key Players

Both teams enter this Wild Card matchup managing significant injury concerns. The Bears list 12 players on their final injury report, while the Packers carry fewer than 10 questionable designations into this elimination game.

The concussion concerns for multiple players reflect the physical intensity leading into playoff football, with player availability potentially shifting based on final medical clearances before kickoff.

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