Packers vs Cowboys Prediction, Picks & Betting Lines for Sunday Night Football

• The Packers are 7-point road favorites over the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football in Week 4
• Micah Parsons returns to Dallas wearing green and gold after his shocking trade to Green Bay
• See my Packers vs Cowboys prediction and picks below, plus the latest betting odds for Sunday Night Football

The revenge game narrative writes itself. Micah Parsons returns to AT&T Stadium for the first time since Jerry Jones shipped him to Green Bay in a blockbuster trade. The Packers (2-1, 1-0 away) face a Cowboys team (1-2, 1-1 home) decimated by injuries and struggling to find an identity.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:20pm CT from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX, with NBC providing the broadcast coverage.

Packers vs Cowboys Prediction and Picks

The line movement tells you everything about this game. Opening at Packers -2.5, it’s ballooned to -7 despite Green Bay’s ugly loss to Cleveland. That’s how bad Dallas looked against Chicago and how devastating the Lamb injury is.

But I’m not touching the spread. When 77% of the public is on one side and the line crosses key numbers, it raises a red flag. Home underdogs of 7+ points are 19-1-2 ATS in the first half of the season over the last three years. Cleveland just cashed that system last week.

Instead, I’m targeting the Packers team total. Green Bay has scored at least 31 points in their last five trips to Jerry’s World. They’ve averaged 35.6 points per game in Dallas since 2013. This Cowboys defense is a disaster, allowing 125.3 opponent passer rating and hemorrhaging yards.

Jordan Love bounces back after last week’s sandwich spot between Detroit and this primetime game. The Packers led 10-0 early against Cleveland before taking their foot off the gas. That won’t happen with Matt LaFleur’s team heading into a bye week.

• SNF Pick: Packers Team Total Over 26.5 (FanDuel -130)

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GB vs DAL Alternative Angles

The full game total dropped from 48.5 to 46.5 after Lamb’s injury news. That’s an overreaction. Dallas allowed 31 points to Chicago and 37 to the Giants. Even without their top receiver, the Cowboys can contribute enough to push this over.

Josh Jacobs over 73.5 rushing yards also catches my eye. Dallas allows 109.7 yards per game on the ground, and Green Bay will control this game script. Jacobs should see 20+ carries with the Packers protecting a lead.

GB Packers vs DAL Cowboys Betting Odds

The Packers opened as modest 2.5-point favorites in the Sunday night football odds. Sharp money and injury news pushed them through multiple key numbers to -7. The moneyline rocketed from -149 to -357.

The total has held steady at 47.5 after briefly dipping to 46.5. That suggests sharp money grabbed the under when it hit the lower number.

According to the NFL public betting percentages, 77% of spread bets are backing Green Bay. The massive public backing combined with the line movement creates a contrarian spot for Dallas backers.

Odds as of Sept. 27 at NFL betting apps. Shop multiple books for the best Packers vs Cowboys betting lines.

Green Bay vs Dallas Matchup Analysis

The Packers own this matchup completely. They’re 5-0 straight up and ATS in their last five visits to Dallas. They’ve scored 30+ points in every game at Jerry’s World since 2013. Last year’s playoff demolition saw Jordan Love throw for 272 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 48-32 rout.

Dallas can’t stop anyone right now. They’re allowing 6.62 effective yards per play, nearly three full yards more than Green Bay’s league-best 3.89. The Bears just hung 31 on them. The Giants dropped 37. This defense is broken.

The Parsons revenge angle adds another layer. He’ll be hunting Dak Prescott behind a patchwork offensive line. Prescott is 22-29 straight up and 16-35 ATS against winning teams since 2016. Now he faces his former teammate with backup tackles trying to protect him.

Recent History: Packers at Cowboys

Packers vs Cowboys Injury Report

Dallas gets some defensive help back. Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland were both full participants in practice and are expected to play. But the offensive losses are devastating. CeeDee Lamb is out with a high ankle sprain that will sideline him 3-4 weeks.

Right guard Tyler Booker is also out with an ankle injury. The Cowboys elevated Jalen Cropper from the practice squad, but he’s played just one NFL game. George Pickens becomes the primary target by default.

Green Bay’s offensive line took hits. Zach Tom and Anthony Belton are both out, leaving them thin at tackle. Left guard Aaron Banks is doubtful with a groin injury. But the key weapons remain healthy – Josh Jacobs cleared the injury report despite ankle concerns, and Micah Parsons is ready for his revenge game despite battling back issues.

LaFleur’s teams are 78-6 straight up and 56-26-2 ATS as favorites of 7+ points heading into their bye week since 2002. That’s a 68.3% ATS rate. Green Bay also thrives in primetime, going 19-8 straight up and 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 night games.

The Cowboys need a miracle to keep this close. They’re 1-6 as home underdogs in their last seven tries. I’m taking the Packers team total over as my Packers vs Cowboys prediction for Sunday Night Football.