- The Buffalo Bills (7-4) opened as 3-point favorites over the New England Patriots (8-4) on Monday Night Football (Dec. 6, 8:15 pm ET) in Week 13
- New England has won six straight, the longest active winning streak in the NFL
- Read below for analysis on which way the line will move ahead of kickoff
Are the New England Patriots the best team in the AFC? Their record says so, as does their recent play. The Pats have reeled off six straight victories to go from 2-4 all the way to the best record in the conference.
New England cruised to another blowout victory in Week 12, dismantling Tennessee 36-13. The Patriots will now travel to Buffalo on Monday Night Football in Week 13, for a showdown with the 7-4 Bills.
Patriots vs Bills Opening Odds
|New England Patriots||+140||+3 (-110)||OFF|
|Buffalo Bills||-166||-3 (-110)||OFF|
Odds as of Nov. 28th at FanDuel.
Despite New Englands incredible run over the past six weeks, they’ll actually be catching points in Buffalo. The Bills opened up as 3-point favorites, in a game that could go a long way to deciding the AFC East champ. Buffalo will enter the contest at 7-4, and fresh off a convincing win on Thanksgiving.
Buffalo Bills Betting Analysis
The Bills throttled the New Orleans Saints 31-6 in the Caesars Superdome, outgaining them 361-190, and possessing the ball for nine more minutes.
Josh Allen threw four touchdown passes, and scrambled for 43 yards, while the defense came within 15 minutes of its third shutout of the season. No other defense has more than one.
Most turnover-worthy plays in the NFL:
Josh Allen 18
Ben Roethlisberger 16
Patrick Mahomes 16
Sam Darnold 15
Taylor Heinicke 15
Trevor Lawrence 15
Ryan Tannehill 15
— Steve Palazzolo (@PFF_Steve) November 24, 2021
But it wasn’t all good news in the Big Easy. Allen committed two turnovers for the third time in four games. He now has seven interceptions and a fumble during that stretch, and the sloppy play has coincided with two Buffalo losses.
The worst news however, came on the injury front. All-Pro corner Tre’Davious White tore his ACL and is done for the season. White is considered one of the premier cover corners in the league and his absence will especially be felt when the Bills face a team with an alpha wide receiver.
CB Tre’Davious White suffered a torn ACL and will miss the remainder of the 2021 season.
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) November 26, 2021
Fortunately for Buffalo, they won’t have to worry about that versus the Pats. New England would much rather run the ball down its opponent’s throat, although they showed they’re not just a once trick pony against the Titans.
New England Patriots Betting Analysis
The Patriots rank fifth in the NFL in rushing attempts and ninth in run play percentage. They still managed to rack up 100+ yards on the ground versus Tennessee, but Mac Jones was the primary offensive catalyst. The rookie QB threw for a season-high 310 yards and two scores, while registering the second best quarterback rating of his career.
From @ESPNStatsInfo: The Patriots have 3 straight wins by 20 points with the same rookie starting QB in Mac Jones. The only other team/rookie QB to have that all-time was the Seahawks with Russell Wilson in 2012 (Week 14-16).
— Mike Reiss (@MikeReiss) November 28, 2021
Through 12 weeks he looks like the best rookie QB of the 2021 class, suggesting once again that Bill Belichick is playing chess, while everyone else is playing checkers.
New England’s defense once again stood on its head, yielding less than 14 points for the fifth time in six games. The Pats forced four more turnovers giving them 25 on the season, two short of the NFL lead.
ARE THE PATS BACK?!
They have outscored their opponents by 148 POINTS during their 6-game win streak 😳 pic.twitter.com/gze6jpOShp
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 29, 2021
New England has now outscored its opposition 211-63 over the past six games and leads the league in point differential (+146).
On the injury front, the Pats escaped their clash with the Titans in good health. Their top-two running backs, Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, were questionable heading into Week 12, but both played and neither suffered a setback.
Patriots vs Bills Line Movement
As good as New England has been this season, Buffalo’s advanced metrics are just as impressive. The Bills entered Week 12 with the league’s second best point differential (+144), while ranking fifth overall in DVOA, and first on the defensive side of the ball.
The Patriots just posted their sixth undefeated November under Bill Belichick.
— Alex Barth (@RealAlexBarth) November 28, 2021
The Pats are third in overall DVOA, and second on defense. This game is a virtual coin flip, and given that home field is worth roughly 3 points, it makes perfect sense for the line to open at up at that number. Don’t expect any movement in either direction this week.