Patriots Open as 6.5-Point Favorites vs Bills in Week 16

• The New England Patriots beat the Buffalo Bills 16-10 in Buffalo in the teams’ first meeting this season
• The Bills are 0-15 at Gillette Stadium in games where Tom Brady plays all four quarters
• Brady has passed for 190 yards or less in three of his last four games

We’ve got three Saturday games on tap this week, one of which is an all-important AFC East showdown between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots. The Patriots, who host this matchup, have opened as a 6.5-point favorite. Which way will the line move as we get closer to kickoff?

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Odds

Odds taken Dec. 15

Patriots Get By Bengals

The final score shows that the Patriots won handily on Sunday, beating the one-win Cincinnati Bengals 34-13. However, those who watched the game know that game flow told a very different story.

The Patriots finished the day with just 291 yards of offense with just 116 yards coming through the air. Tom Brady had 45 passing yards on the first drive of the game and then had just 83 the rest of the way. The Patriots actually trailed early in the game and didn’t get right until the Bengals started making a mountain of mistakes.

Brady finds Harry in the back of the end zone. @NkealHarry15 | @TomBrady pic.twitter.com/U3Nen3o9EV

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) December 15, 2019

Of concern was the Patriots defense, which struggled to get stops early on. Each of the Bengals’ first three drives lasted at least seven plays while compiling 159 yards and 10 points. This is the one-win Bengals we’re talking about. They coughed up 164 rushing yards on the ground too.

We know that New England’s offense has struggled of late and they struggled in this game too. Those who merely look at the box score will think that this team got right but that couldn’t be further from the truth.

Bills Earn Big Win on Sunday Night Football

The Bills win on Sunday Night Football was important for the franchise as it clinched a playoff berth. Beyond that, it was their 10th win of the season, which is something they hadn’t done since 1999. They’ve been fighting for credibility all season long and this was a big win for them.

The Steelers entered the week having won eight of their last nine games and are typically very difficult to beat at home in primetime. However, Buffalo did just enough as they ran for 131 yards and made less mistakes. They had just two turnovers compared to the Steelers five.

“The Bills are in the playoffs, what are you going to do now?”

Bills Mafia:pic.twitter.com/4nLjt6H5uF

— Someone’s An Idiot (@SomeonesAnIdiot) December 16, 2019

Even so, the Bills will still have their doubters as quarterback Josh Allen was just 13-of-25 for 139 yards, a touchdown and a pick. The defense did their job but they were also facing a third-string quarterback who threw a lot of bad passes on Sunday.

Which Way Will the Line Move?

I’m fully expecting the money to be on the Bills in this spot. With the line opening at 6.5, it looks like the books are trying to attract some public money and teasers on the Patriots, but to be honest, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bills won this game.

New England is a vulnerable team as their offense just isn’t very good right now. The Bills nearly won the first meeting between the teams as they lost 16-10 but remember that quarterback Josh Allen was knocked out with a cheap shot in that game.

.@TomBrady in the building ? pic.twitter.com/oUYFKMIiKz

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) December 15, 2019

Sharps are going to look at these teams and think there really isn’t much between them, so I would expect them to bet Buffalo. They’ll figure we’ll see a low-scoring, defensive struggle, which means a touchdown could be too much to give up.

Even though the Bills have never beaten the Patriots at Gillette Stadium when Tom Brady plays all four quarters (0-15), I would expect the pros to be siding with the Bills to at least cover in this spot. That should push this down to +6 or lower throughout the week.