Patriots vs Broncos Early Picks & Predictions for AFC Championship

• Bo Nix’s injury has changed the betting landscape
• New England is a 5.5-point road favorite
• We analyze Patriots vs Broncos and offer expert betting picks for AFC Championship

Denver is back in the AFC Championship Game for the first time since Peyton Manning guided the Broncos to the Super Bowl title in 2015.

Bad news: The Broncos lost their starting quarterback, Bo Nix, to a broken ankle in a wild 33-30 OT win over Buffalo in the Divisional Round.

In steps Jarrett Stidham, like Nix a former Auburn quarterback. Stidham, who started his NFL career with the New England Patriots, now gets the opportunity to end their season in the AFC Championship. Kickoff is set for 3 pm, ET, Sunday, Jan 25 (CBS).

Nix hasn’t thrown a pass in a real game since the 2023 season. In his sixth season, he has thrown eight touchdown passes with eight interceptions in his career.

The visiting Patriots are led by NFL MVP candidate Drake Maye, who threw three touchdown passes as the Patriots dominated the Houston Texans 28-16 in a snow-filled AFC Divisional Round.

The betting market has installed the Patriots as 5.5-point road favorites in the AFC title game. These teams did not meet in the regular season.

Patriots vs Broncos AFC Championship Picks

The betting market has established the New England Patriots as comfortable 5.5-point road favorites, but a comprehensive statistical breakdown reveals significant value backing the home underdog Denver Broncos in this AFC Championship.

Critical Situational Trends Supporting Denver +5.5:

• The Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games as underdogs
• New England is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road contests
• Home underdogs in AFC Championship Games are 6-2 ATS since 2010

There’s a huge caveat in those numbers, of course: This is the rare case where a backup QB is pressed into duty without much experience — and any this season.

Denver’s defense is dominant — it forced five turnovers in the AFC Divisional Round win over Buffalo. The Broncos intercepted Josh Allen twice and also recovered two of his three fumbles. They also sacked Allen three times. If you’re taking Denver and the points, you’re pinning that on the belief the Broncos will get to Maye often enough and force enough mistakes to keep the game close.

Best Bets Broncos vs Patriots

The analysis is suggesting taking the Broncos at the points. Given Denver’s quarterback situation, we recommend these two bets instead.

Under 41.5 points (-110) at BetMGM

Why do we like this bet? Our analysis shows that Denver’s defense is capable of slowing down Maye and New England. Weather shouldn’t be a concern — as long as the cold front passes and the projected temperature at kickoff reaches the 40s. Certainly conditions will be more favorable than in the AFC Divisional Round game in New England.

Contributing to the Under, of course, is the uncertainty of how well Denver will play with Stidham behind center.

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Best Prop Bet: Jarrett Stidham Over 0.5 INTs (-176) at DraftKings Sportsbook

The consensus odds on Stidham throwing at least one interception are -191.

Stidham has thrown eight interceptions in limited opportunities. Denver will want to run the ball, but if the Patriots can force Stidham into enough passing opportunities, our analysis favors taking the Over on this interception prop.

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Public Betting Splits: Heavy Action on Road Favorites

The NFL betting public has shown overwhelming confidence in the visiting New England Patriots, creating a significant contrarian opportunity for sharp bettors willing to fade the popular consensus.

Current public betting splits reveal:

• Spread: 93.02% of money backing New England Patriots -5.5
• Moneyline: 88.02% of handle on New England moneyline
• Total: 62.34% of money flowing to Over 40.5

This lopsided public backing of the Patriots and the Over creates a classic fade-the-public scenario. Our expert analysis identifies substantial value on the Denver Broncos +5.5 and Under 40.5, positioning these picks as strong contrarian plays against the overwhelming consensus.

Key Betting Trends: Historical Patterns Favor Denver

Several compelling historical trends support backing the home underdog Broncos in this AFC Championship matchup:

• Denver is 7-3 against the spread as home underdogs in its past 10 such games
• The Patriots have struggled on the road, going 2-5 ATS in their past seven away contests
• The Under has connected in 8 of New England’s last 11 games with totals set at 40.5 or higher
• Home underdogs in conference championship games have covered 75% of the time since 2015

Patriots vs Broncos Odds

The championship game betting markets have established clear favorites, though the lines present potential value opportunities for contrarian bettors.

Odds as of January 19, 2026, from consensus sportsbooks.

The Patriots opened as -264 moneyline favorites and have held steady at -262, indicating strong market confidence in a New England victory. The 5.5-point spread suggests oddsmakers expect the Patriots to win by nearly a touchdown, while the moderate 40.5 total reflects uncertainty about offensive production in a championship setting.

After removing bookmaker vig, the normalized win probabilities are:

• New England Patriots Win Chance: 69.5%
• Denver Broncos Win Chance: 30.5%

Critical Matchup Analysis

Patriots Offense vs Broncos Defense: New England’s versatile approach faces a Denver defense that has been opportunistic rather than dominant during the playoffs. The Patriots’ concerning 28.0% third-down conversion rate during the playoffs could prove fatal against a Broncos unit that thrives on forcing three-and-outs and creating short fields with their +4 turnover differential.

Broncos Offense vs Patriots Defense: Nix’s absence changes everything about this matchup. Expect the Patriots to focus on stopping the Broncos’ running game. That wasn’t always the case in the regular season, where the running game merely complemented Nix’s passing ability. Stidham’s pocket presence will be tested immediately against Harold Landry III and the Patriots’ front seven. The betting market reflects this pressure with Stidham’s consensus interception prop (Over 0.5 INTs) heavily juiced at -191, suggesting oddsmakers expect the Patriots’ aggressive defensive schemes to force mistakes from the backup quarterback making his first championship start.