NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 14 – SBD Formula is 36-22-2 This Season

• Week 14 of the 2021 NFL season continues Sunday, December 12th
• The SBD Formula is a red-hot 36-22-2 against the spread through 13 weeks
• Read below for analysis on the Week 14 NFL slate, plus against the spread picks for every game based on the SBD Formula

The SBD Formula stayed hot in Week 13, compiling a 4-1 record against the spread with its best bets. That brings the SBD Formula’s record to a cool 36-22-2 against the spread with its top plays this season, good for a 62% hit rate, and a massive ROI.

We nailed our three best bets in last week’s column by trusting the SBD Formula’s projections, and we’ll look to keep the momentum rolling in Week 14.

Week 14 Against the Spread Picks

Odds as of Dec. 9th at DraftKings and FanDuel.

The action starts in Gotham City, where the New Orleans Saints are visiting the Jets, looking to snap a five-game losing streak.

Saints vs Jets Pick Against the Spread

The Saints are still 5.5-point road favorites over the Jets in spite of their struggles, a number the SBD Formula doesn’t think is nearly high enough.

4-1 in Week 13 ATS picks

Now 36-22-2 on the season https://t.co/QtRhab6Z0v

— Matt McEwan (@SBD_Matt) December 7, 2021

New Orleans rates out significantly better than New York in almost every key statistic. For example, the Saints are ranked 13th per DVOA, while the Jets are ranked 28th. New Orleans has the league’s fifth best defense per DVOA, while New York owns the worst.

Offensively, the gap isn’t as wide but it still favors the Saints. New Orleans checks in ranked 21st in offensive DVOA, compared to 24th for the Jets, but a big reason for the Saints lousy ranking has been the absence of Alvin Kamara.

Back-to-back full practices for Alvin Kamara (knee). Meanwhile, Mark Ingram (COVID) likely out. Jets are dead last by a mile in our DvP vs. running backs. https://t.co/N9uQJUFw3F

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) December 9, 2021

The Saints only true explosive talent has missed the past four games, and to no one’s surprise New Orleans is winless during that stretch. Kamara is set to return this week, which spells trouble for New York. The Saints are 5-3 with Kamara in the line-up, and average 25.1 points per game, compared to only 18.2 when he’s absent.

Jets QB Zach Wilson looked better last week versus Philadelphia earning offensive rookie of the week honors, but New York still lost by 15. The Jets have failed to cover in three straight homes games, and all but one of their nine losses this season have been by at least a touchdown.

Pick: New Orleans Saints -5.5 (-110), 1 unit

Cowboys vs Washington Pick Against the Spread

Next up, let’s target Washington getting 4.5-points at home versus Dallas. Not only does the SBD Formula think this number is too high, it’s predicting an outright victory for the underdog Football Team.

Upsets are nothing new to Washington though, as they’ve reeled off four straight outright wins as a ‘dog. They haven’t trailed for a second of any game since coming off their Week 9 bye, a stretch that includes victories over the defending champs, and most recently Las Vegas.

IT'S UP TO US

🤝 @MDLottery pic.twitter.com/gnXm2rfqvb

— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) December 6, 2021

Washington went on the road last week to knock off the same Raiders team that just beat the Cowboys at Jerry’s World.

After failing to cover in their first four games at home, the Football Team is 2-0 against the spread in their past two games at FedExField, and has covered in four straight overall.

Y'all aint goin nowhere!🤠🤠🤠🤠 pic.twitter.com/65W8GfKofq

— Stephen A Smith (@stephenasmith) December 6, 2021

Dallas meanwhile, has dropped two of three, and could have trouble generating a ton of points in this matchup. Washington has yielded an average of just 17.5 points during its winning streak, holding its last two opponents to only 15 points a piece.

Pick: Washington Football Team +4.5 (-110), 1 unit

49ers vs Bengals Pick Against the Spread

Last but not least, let’s target the San Francisco 49ers as 1.5-point favorites in Cincinnati. To be fair, we’re getting far from the best of the number as the Bengals opened as the 2-point chalk. That line didn’t last long however, and the SBD Formula agrees with the move. It projects a double-digit victory for San Fran, and that doesn’t even take into account Joe Burrow’s injury status.

From NFL Now: #Bengals QB Joe Burrow plans to play this week, mangled finger or not. pic.twitter.com/0bIgS2pOB3

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 6, 2021

Burrow is practicing, but only on a limited basis thanks to a mangled finger on his throwing hand. He suffered the injury last week versus the LA Chargers, and proceeded to have one of his worst games of the season. He committed three turnovers, and posted a QBR of just 32.6, en route to a 41-22 defeat.

The 49ers are coming off a disappointing loss of their own in Seattle, but are still a stronger team statistically. They rank significantly higher in both offensive and defensive DVOA, and since Week 8 lead the NFL in expected points added per play.

George Kittle walks the tightrope for a 48-yard score 🔥

That’s his 2nd TD of the day

(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/x9RrmNIRGN

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 5, 2021

Also working in San Fran’s favor is their proficiency when they get into scoring position. They’re the number one red zone team in the league, converting 75.8% of their trips inside the 20 into touchdowns.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers -1.5 (-110), 1 unit