NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 11: Back JJ McCarthy vs the Bears

• We have reached NFL Week 11
• In my picks against the spread this week, I am targeting two favorites and one underdog to cover the spread
• See below for all my NFL Week 11 picks against the spread picks

It is now NFL Week 11, and the NFL playoff bracket is shaping up. This week’s NFL action features a lot of intriguing games, including eight divisional matchups.

In my NFL picks against the spread for Week 11, I am targeting two favorites and only one underdog, despite my love for divisional underdogs.

Keep reading for all my NFL ATS picks for Week 11, plus my analysis for my best bets.

NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Get Up To $1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US), Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD1500

CODE: SBD1500

SIGNUP BONUS

GET $1,500
BACK

BET NOW

Odds as of Friday, November 14, at BetMGM. Be sure to claim the best BetMGM promo code before locking in your NFL Week 11 picks.

NFL ATS Pick #1: Vikings -2.5 vs Bears

JJ McCarthy and the Vikings looked terrible last week vs the Ravens, but I am going to put my money on them yet again. They stay at home and host the Bears, who have won six of their last seven. That is great for the Bears, but I still have my worries about this team.

Their defense is vulnerable. They have a hard time defending the pass due to their secondary and their lack of a pass rush. Enter Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Chicago will have their hands full defensively.

Caleb Williams is 0-3 vs the Vikings in his career, including a Week 1 loss at home this season. JJ McCarthy and Minnesota came back to win that game 27-24. Now they are 2.5-point home favorites in Week 11.

The Vikings like to blitz, so they will do their best to make Williams’s day uncomfortable.

My other worry about this Bears offense is the teams that they have played. All six of Chicago’s wins have come against teams with losing records. They have beaten the Cowboys, Raiders, Commanders, Saints, Bengals, and Giants. Even more worrisome is that all six of those teams have bad defenses.

Minnesota is a step up in competition, and I believe the Bears will struggle on the road in this game. Bet on the Vikings to cover the short spread vs Chicago.

NFL Week 11 Pick: Vikings -2.5 (-118)

NFL ATS Pick #2: Steelers -5.5 vs Bengals

AFC North underdogs are almost an auto-bet for me, but I am looking at this game differently. The Steelers looked really bad against the Chargers on Sunday Night Football, but luckily for them, they now get to face the Bengals defense.

The Steelers are back at home, and they are seeking revenge after losing to the Bengals on Thursday Night Football earlier this season. Cincinnati lost two straight games before their bye last week, and both were in heartbreaking fashion. They allowed comeback wins to the Jets and the Bears.

Their defense is a real problem, and the Steelers will be extra motivated to win this game, especially with the Ravens returning to form.

Mike Tomlin is 27-11 straight up and 25-12-1 against the spread vs the Bengals as the Steelers head coach, and I expect him to get a big win on Sunday.

• NFL Week 11 Pick: Steelers -5.5 (-110)

NFL ATS Pick #3: Giants +7.5 vs Packers

My last NFL ATS pick for Week 11 is the Giants vs the Packers. Brian Daboll was fired from the Giants, so I expect the players to come out ready to play. We often see teams get a bump after their coach gets fired. They will also be turning to Jameis Winston under center with Jaxson Dart out due to a concussion.

While I do believe Jameis and the Giants can keep this game close, I am also fading the Packers in this spot. Green Bay is playing on a short week after a tough, hard-fought Monday Night Football loss.

They have covered the spread just once in their last six games. The Packers have also struggled as a favorite, going 0-5 against the spread this year as favorites of at least four points.

I cannot trust laying the points with Green Bay on the road, and I like getting a touchdown to play with in this game. Bet on the Giants to keep it close on Sunday.

NFL Week 11 Pick: Giants +7.5 (-120)