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NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 12: Bet on Joe Burrow and the Bengals

Zach Reger

By Zach Reger in NFL News

Published:


Joe Burrow on the sideline with a headset on
Injured Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) walks the sideline with a headset in the second quarter of the NFL Week 7 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers at Paycor Stadium in downtown Cincinnati on Thursday, Oct. 16, 2025.
  • It is NFL Week 12
  • I went 2-1 in my NFL ATS picks last week
  • Keep reading for all my NFL Week 12 against the spread picks and best bets

We have reached NFL Week 12, and the NFL playoff bracket is coming together. Some surprising teams are missing from the current playoff picture, including the Chiefs, Ravens, and Lions.

This week’s NFL slate features a lot of key games for playoff seeding and divisional races. shaping up. There are also multiple double-digit spreads this weekend, so Sunday should have a little bit of everything.

In my NFL picks against the spread last week, I went 2-1 with my best bets. This week, I am targeting one favorite and two underdogs to cover their respective spreads.

See below for my NFL Week 12 against the spread picks for Sunday, November 23, plus my analysis for my best bets.

NFL Week 12 Picks Against the Spread

MatchupSpreadPick
Vikings vs PackersGB -6.5Vikings +6.5
Steelers vs BearsCHI -2.5Bears -2.5
Patriots vs BengalsNE -7Bengals +7
Giants vs LionsDET -12.5Lions -12.5
Seahawks vs TitansSEA -13Seahawks -13
Colts vs ChiefsKC -3.5Chiefs -3.5
Jets vs RavensBAL -13.5Ravens -13.5
Browns vs RaidersLV -4Raiders -4
Jaguars vs CardinalsJAX -3Cardinals +3
Eagles vs CowboysPHI -3Cowboys +3
Falcons vs SaintsNO -2Saints -2
Buccaneers vs RamsLAR -6.5Buccaneers +6.5
Panthers vs 49ersSF -749ers -7

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NFL ATS Pick #1: Bengals +7 vs Patriots

Joe Burrow has been practicing and actually has a chance to play. This line was at 8.5, but as Burrow continues to practice, it continues to creep towards Cincinnati.

Whether he plays or not, I like getting seven points with the home underdog.

New England has been great this season, but they have been helped by an easy schedule. It is not like the Bengals are anything special, but Burrow could be the spark this team needs.

Sports Betting Dime •

Pick
Odds
HomePointSpread +7
Spread
NFL • New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals
-110 on Bet365
SCHEDULED • 11/23/2025
Tally (Win %)
0-0-0 (0%)
Money Meter
$0.00
ROI
0.0%
Betslip #1763748715014-eede-154

The Bengals have been close in a lot of games, and I expect this one to be no different. Burrow is 19-11 against the spread as an underdog in his career.

I have a hard time trusting the Patriots to win by over a touchdown on the road in what should be a pretty high-scoring game.

NFL Week 12 Pick: Bengals +7 (-110)

NFL ATS Pick #2: Chiefs -3 vs Colts

The Chiefs sit at 5-5, and now they host the 8-2 Colts off a bye. It will not be an easy game, but the fact that the Chiefs are favored tells me everything I need to know.

Kansas City is at home, and their defense will make things difficult for Daniel Jones and the Colts. Jones will play, but he is not 100%.

The Chiefs defense is top five in receiving yards allowed per game and rushing yards allowed per game. Jonathan Taylor will still have his plays, but I believe Kansas City will be able to limit him at home.

Sports Betting Dime •

Pick
Odds
HomePointSpread -3
Spread
NFL • Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs
-120 on Bet365
SCHEDULED • 11/23/2025
Tally (Win %)
0-0-0 (0%)
Money Meter
$0.00
ROI
0.0%
Betslip #1763746788044-eede-956

They are also a much different team at home. Kansas City is 4-1 against the spread at home, and they are 3-0 at home when they are favored.

The Chiefs are currently not in the playoffs, so every game is becoming increasingly important. They will be motivated and ready to go for this Week 12 battle.

  • NFL Week 12 Pick: Chiefs -3 (-120)

NFL ATS Pick #3: Cowboys +3.5 vs Eagles

I love betting on home underdogs in division games, and that is exactly what we have in Dallas on Sunday. I like it even more getting over a field goal in this NFC East matchup.

The Cowboys went into Philadelphia and lost a close game in Week 1. I expect this game to be close as well.

Sports Betting Dime •

Pick
Odds
HomePointSpread +3.5
Spread
NFL • Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
-122 on FanDuel
SCHEDULED • 11/23/2025
Tally (Win %)
0-0-0 (0%)
Money Meter
$0.00
ROI
0.0%
Betslip #1763747131704-eede-328

Philadelphia’s offense has been struggling, but their defense has come together. The Cowboys offense is firing on all cylinders, and their defense looked improved on Monday Night Football. Granted, it was the Raiders, so I won’t put too much stock into their defensive improvements quite yet, but it was nice to see.

The Cowboys are 3-1 against the spread as an underdog this season, and I like them to continue that trend on Sunday.

NFL Week 12 Pick: Cowboys +3.5 (-122)

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Zach Reger
Zach Reger

Social Media Manager; Sports Betting Personality & Handicapper

Zach has been involved in the sports betting industry for three years. After starting to bet on sports in college, Zach was interested in how it can make any game interesting. The trends, line movement, and finding unique angles to predict the outcomes of games captivated Zach to get more involved.

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