NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 5: The Saints Get Their First Win

• We are already at NFL Week 5
• In my NFL picks against the spread this week, I am targeting two underdogs and one favorite
• See below for all my ATS picks for NFL Week 5 on Sunday, October 5

NFL Week 5 is here, and there are a lot of big spreads. Entering Thursday Night Football, six teams were favored by at least a touchdown. The Rams lost outright as 8.5-point favorites vs the 49ers on TNF, so there are five more large favorites yet to play.

It is also the first week with bye weeks, so just 13 games are remaining this week.

Heading into Sunday, favorites are 34-31 (52.3%) against the spread, and I am once again looking at more underdogs to cover the spread in my NFL best bets for Week 5.

Keep reading for my NFL Week 5 picks against the spread, and my analysis for my NFL best bets on Sunday, October 5.

NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread

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NFL ATS Pick #1: Browns +4.5 vs Vikings

The Browns and Vikings meet in London in NFL Week 5. While this will be the Vikings second straight week in Europe, I like the Browns to cover the spread on Sunday.

The O/U in this game is a low one at 36.5, which makes me look to the underdog of over a field goal.

I expect this game to be close, hard-fought, and low-scoring, so the Browns should be able to keep this game close until the end.

Cleveland’s defense, and more importantly, their front seven, is no joke. Minnesota’s offensive line is injured, so Myles Garrett and company should make it very difficult for Carson Wentz to get anything going. Jordan Mason is a good running back, but the Browns have not let anyone run on them.

Last week, Jahmyr Gibbs was the first running back to see success against Cleveland’s front, but this season, they have held Chase Brown, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, and David Montgomery to 2.09 yards per carry or less.

Carson Wentz is going to have to win this game with his arm, and I do not trust him to lay 4.5 points.

The Vikings still have a strong defense, but they have allowed the tenth most rushing yards in the NFL this season. That is exactly what the Browns want to do with their rookie Quinshon Judkins, who has looked great.

The Browns are starting Dillon Gabriel, so I expect a big emphasis on the run game. I bet on the Giants last week, partially because of rookie Jaxson Dart getting his first start. There was no NFL film on him, and the team was going to play harder for their young quarterback. Gabriel is not the type of prospect Dart is, but some of that still applies to this game.

Teams do not have NFL film on Gabriel, Cleveland will rally around their young quarterback, and their defense will wreak havoc on a weak Minnesota offensive line. 4.5 is way too many points in this game, so take the Browns to cover the spread in London.

• Week 5 NFL Pick: Browns +4.5 (-115)

NFL ATS Pick #2: Broncos +3.5 vs Eagles

I bet against the Eagles last week, and it burned me. Nonetheless, I am picking against them again on Sunday against the Broncos.

Philadelphia is 20-1 straight up since last year, and they continue to find ways to win. Still, there are some issues with this team that the Broncos can exploit.

The Eagles are known for running the ball, but their rushing attack has been stagnant. Saquon Barkley has failed to reach 50 rushing yards in two consecutive weeks heading into Sunday, and he is averaging just 2.7 yards per carry.

Their secondary has also been worrisome, and teams have been able to throw the ball against them. They are allowing 11 yards per reception, which is tied for the tenth most in the NFL this year. Their rush defense has also struggled, giving up 4.8 yards per carry, which is tied for sixth most in the league.

The Broncos offense seemed to click on Monday Night Football. Yes, it was against the Bengals, but they did what they were supposed to do. They threw for 326 yards and ran for 186 yards on the ground. Bo Nix looked good, and both JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey played well.

Their offense should be able to move the ball against Philadelphia’s defense. On the other side of the ball, Denver’s defense is legit.

The Broncos have allowed the tenth-fewest rushing yards this season, so I do not expect Saquon Barkley to turn it around this week. They also have one of the top corners in the game in Pat Surtain, which will make it difficult for Philadelphia’s passing game.

The Eagles are also in a slight lookahead spot with a divisional opponent on deck. It is the Giants, but it will be on a short week, playing on Thursday Night Football.

I love getting over a field goal with Denver in this game.

• Week 5 NFL Pick: Broncos +3.5 (-105)

NFL ATS Pick #3: Saints -1.5 vs Giants

Spencer Rattler is 0-10 in his career as a starter, and he is favored in this game. I have to bet on this.

After diving into the matchup further, I understand why the Saints are expected to beat the Giants.

The Giants are coming off a huge, emotional upset victory over the Chargers, but they are not in a great spot this week. New York is on the road, traveling to New Orleans. They lost Malik Nabers for the year. Jaxson Dart is not 100% and now has some film on him.

New York also plays the Eagles on Thursday Night Football next week, making this a tough situation for New York.

The Giants defensive front is great, but they have not been able to stop the run. They have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards and the second-highest yards per carry at 6.1. Alvin Kamara and even Kendre Miller are in for a big day.

New Orleans has played a lot better at home and has been competitive in three of their four games. Even last week against the Bills, the Saints were in that game in the fourth quarter.

They have been playing hard and should get their first win against the Giants in Week 5.

• Week 5 NFL Pick: Saints -1.5 (-105)