- The Pittsburgh Steelers face the Kansas City Chiefs on Wild Card Weekend (Sunday, Jan. 16th, 8:15 pm ET)
- Ben Roethlisberger has failed to eclipse 160 passing yards in three of his past four games
- Read below for analysis and our favorite Steelers-Chiefs player prop bets
The AFC’s final playoff game on Wild Card Weekend features the Steelers and Chiefs. Ben Roethlisberger is set to retire at the end of the season, and with Pittsburgh coming in as a massive underdog, this will likely be Big Ben’s final game.
In honor of that, it seems only fitting we start our player props card for this matchup with Roethlisberger. His play has fallen off a cliff over the past couple years, so targeting the under on his passing prop seems like a prudent investment.
Steelers vs Chiefs Player Props
|Quarterback||Completions||Passing Yards||Passing TD|
|Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)||24.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||230.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||1.5 (Ov +150 | Un -205)|
|Patrick Mahomes (KC)||25.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130)||277.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||2.5 (Ov +150 | Un -200)|
|Running Backs||Attempts||Rush Yards||Rush + Receiving Yards|
|Najee Harris (PIT)||OFF||64.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||89.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)|
|Darrel Williams (KC)||OFF||56.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||82.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)|
|Wide Receivers + Tight Ends||Receptions||Receiving Yards||Longest Reception|
|Chase Claypool (PIT)||3.5 (Ov -165 | Un +125)||42.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||18.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)|
|Diontae Johnson (PIT)||6.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)||60.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||20.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)|
|Pat Freiermuth (PIT)||3.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||30.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||14.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)|
|Tyreek Hill (KC)||5.5 (Ov -130 | Un -105)||70.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||22.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)|
|Byron Pringle (KC)||OFF||30.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||16.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)|
|Travis Kelce (KC)||5.5 (Ov -140 | Un +105)||68.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||22.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)|
The Steelers are currently 12.5-point underdogs versus the Chiefs, and were blown out by them 36-10 in KC in Week 16.
Prop #1: Ben Roethlisberger Under 230.5 Passing Yards
Roethlisberger threw the ball 35 times in that matchup for a grand total of 159 yards. He’s thrown for less than 160 yards in three of his past four outings, and the only reason he eclipsed 200 yards last week versus Baltimore was because the game went to overtime.
"We don’t have a chance, so let’s just go in and have fun."
—Ben Roethlisberger on the Steelers' playoff game vs. the Chiefs
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 12, 2022
Even if Pittsburgh abandons the run and goes extremely pass heavy, Big Ben will still struggle to exceed this total. He’s averaging 4.5 yards per attempt over his past four games, and only 7 yards per completion.
Pick: Ben Roethlisberger Under 230.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Prop #2: Darrel Williams Over 56.5 Rushing Yards
If there’s one area the Steelers defense excels at it’s rushing the passer. What’s the fastest way to neutralize a potent pass rush? Running the ball effectively. KC’s number one RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out, opening up a ton of opportunity for Darrel Williams.
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 9, 2022
The 26-year-old has cleared this total three times this season in games Edwards-Helaire has missed, and reached 55 yards on 11 carries in Week 16 versus Pittsburgh, despite Edwards-Helaire getting nine rush attempts of his own.
The Steelers rank 27th in run defense per DVOA, and allowed a league-high 146.1 rushing yards per game during the regular season.
Pick: Darrel Williams Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Steelers vs Chiefs Scoring Props
|Player||Odds to Score 1st TD||Odds to Score Anytime TD|
|Travis Kelce (KC)||+600||-120|
|Darrel Williams (KC)||+650||-110|
|Tyreek Hill (KC)||+650||-105|
|Najee Harris (PIT)||+750||+120|
|Diontae Johnson (PIT)||+1100||+180|
|Mecole Hardman (KC)||+1400||+250|
|Pat Freiermuth (PIT)||+1600||+250|
|Derrick Gore (KC)||+1600||+275|
|Byron Pringle (KC)||+1600||+260|
|Jerick McKinnon (KC)||+1600||+270|
|Chase Claypool (PIT)||+1800||+300|
|Juju Smith-Schuster (PIT)||+1800||+300|
|Ray-Ray McCloud (PIT)||+2000||+330|
|Patrick Mahomes (KC)||+2000||+330|
|Demarcus Robinson (KC)||+2200||+380|
|James Washington (PIT)||+2800||+500|
Prop #3: Patrick Mahomes To Score 1st TD
As detailed in the preview for this contest, Roethlisberger has thrown one first half touchdown pass over his past seven games. Feels like it’s safe to eliminate the majority of the Steelers from 1st TD consideration.
Based on Pittsburgh’s atrocious run defense, it makes sense to target a KC rushing touchdown as the first score. You could ride with Williams at +650, but those odds seem a bit too short. Derrick Gore, who the Chiefs like to deploy at the goal line occasionally is option as well, but what about Patrick Mahomes.
First off, the +2000 price tag is very appealing. Second, he has a history of revving up his rushing production during the postseason.
Chiefs fans know nothing less than an AFC Championship Game appearance in the Patrick Mahomes era. pic.twitter.com/l4BSYjRzbV
— Kent Swanson (@kent_swanson) January 13, 2022
Mahomes has eight career rushing touchdowns in 63 regular season starts, but four rushing TD in only eight career playoff games. He averages over five rushing attempts per game in the playoffs, compared to only 3.7 rushing attempts per outing in the regular season.
Patrick Mahomes now has a rushing TD in 3 straight playoff games.
That's the longest streak by a QB since Steve Young across the 1994-95 postseasons. pic.twitter.com/dGfqJeS7RT
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 17, 2021
He’s scored at least one touchdown on the ground in each of his three career postseasons in KC, and two of his four career playoff rushing touchdowns have been the game’s 1st TD.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes 1st TD (+2000), Anytime TD (+330)