- The point spread in KC vs Tennessee moved from Chiefs -4 to -6 after Patrick Mahomes went through a full practice on Wednesday
- The Chiefs are 1-1 straight up without Mahomes (dislocated right patella) the past two games
- The original diagnosis was that reigning NFL MVP Mahomes would miss a minimum of three games
The action on Sunday’s Kansas City Chiefs-Tennessee Titans game comes down to the movement of one player. It’s all about Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Mahomes, the reigning NFL MVP, participated in a full practice on Wednesday. Optimism about his health is increasing speculation that Mahomes might get the start on Sunday. It’s also causing a seismic shift in the betting line. Sportsbooks moved the Chiefs vs Titans odds a full two points, from KC -4 to KC -6.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans Odds
|Kansas City Chiefs||OFF||+6 (-105)||Over 47.5 (-110)|
|Tennessee Titans||OFF||-6 (-115)||Under 47.5 (-110)|
Odds taken Nov. 7.
Mahomes Uncertainty A Cause For Pause
Chiefs coach Andy Reid insisted that people shouldn’t read too much into the amount of work Mahomes got at practice on Wednesday. The team is merely testing the QB’s knee to see how much he can endure in order to gauge when Mahomes should return to action.
"We're not going to put him out there unless it's safe.'' — Reid on Pat Mahomes.
— Adam Teicher (@adamteicher) November 6, 2019
Both Mahomes and backup Matt Moore are taking reps in preparation for Sunday’s game. Moore has started the two games since Mahomes suffered a dislocated right patella against the Denver Broncos.
Wednesday’s practice was the first step in the process for Mahomes. Reid was adamant that they won’t rush Mahomes back into action. He won’t play until it’s safe for him to do so.
Kansas City Wanting Moore?
Moore replaced Mahomes against Denver and led the Chiefs to victory. He’s taken every snap since then and Kansas City is 2-1.
Matt Moore with an absolute dart for 6 🎯 pic.twitter.com/KbKdHRWJMW
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) November 3, 2019
Moore has a 64.8-percent completion rate. He’s passed for 569 yards and four touchdowns, without a single interception. His passer rating is a solid 100.9.
What’s The Hurry?
At 6-3, Kansas City owns a 1.5-game lead atop the AFC West over the 4-4 Oakland Raiders. The Chiefs have a bit of room to play with, and Moore has performed solidly. Last week, he beat the NFL’s #7 defense in the Minnesota Vikings.
Despite missing the last two weeks, Patrick Mahomes still leads in deep passing TDs
— PFF (@PFF) November 7, 2019
Minus Mahomes, the Chiefs are still breaking chunk plays. Last week, Damien Williams scampered 91 yards for a touchdown, while Moore and Tyreek Hill connected on a 41-yard scoring pass.
A blessing in disguise created by the Mahomes injury is that it’s forcing the maligned Chiefs defense to step up its game. They’ve held opponents to 54 points over the 11 quarters since Mahomes suffered his injury (19.6 PPG).
Tennessee Plays KC Tough
While this line is going to shift on every update to the status of Mahomes, it’s a good idea to take a step back and view the whole picture before placing a wager.
With or without Mahomes, the Chiefs face tough sledding against a Tennessee squad that’s had their number.
Kevin Byard discusses limiting explosive plays in Week 10 vs. the Chiefs. pic.twitter.com/XCUfMdS08P
— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) November 6, 2019
Straight up, the Titans are 3-0 against KC in the last three meetings. Against the spread, the Chiefs are 2-5 in their last seven when facing Tennessee.
They were 3-3 ATS in the six games before Mahomes was hurt and 2-1 ATS in the last three games.
Here’s another interesting twist – Kansas City is 2-0 both SU and ATS at Tennessee. The Chiefs are 4-0 SU on the road this season.
Crazy stat of the night… Andy Reid is 1-7 all time against the Titans… pic.twitter.com/jFIs6iPL9y
— Cory Curtis (@CoryCurtis2) November 7, 2019
In games decided by four points or less, the Titans are 2-1 ATS.
The Chiefs were mediocre at covering spreads with Mahomes at quarterback. Moore or Mahomes, more or less points, it doesn’t’ matter.
Either way, the Titans are the play.
Let's have fun and keep it civil.