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Spread in Steelers vs Chargers Moving in Favor of LA, Total Down from 43.5 to 41

Steelers coach Mike Tomlin
Mike Tomlin's Steelers will be down to third-string QB Devlin Hodges in Week 6. Photo by SteelCityHobbies (Wikimedia) [CC License].
  • Chargers are now -7 favorites, after opening at -5.5
  • The total has moved as well, dropping from 43.5 to 41
  • After Mason Rudolph injury, Steelers now on third-string quarterback Devlin Hodges

This Sunday night matchup looks much different than when the schedule was initially released, but there is still intrigue galore in the Week 6 matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4) vs LA Chargers (2-3).

With another quarterback injury for Pittsburgh, and a Los Angeles team that has been up and down, there has been some interesting movement in the Steelers vs. Chargers odds.

Steelers vs Chargers Odds

Team Point Spread at Bovada* Moneyline Total
Pittsburgh Steelers +7 (-115) +240 O 41.0 (-115)
Los Angeles Chargers -7 (-105) -290 U 41.0 (-105)

* Odds as of 10/09.

Value Betting the Over?

Since opening at 43.5, the total in this matchup has seen a drop to 41. That may look enticing as it sinks, but this game has real potential to be a low-scoring battle.

The Charger offense has underperformed this year, and the Steelers now move to the third quarterback on the depth chart, Devlin Hodges, who was forced into action when Mason Rudolph took a huge hit to the head in Week 5.

Chargers
VS
Steelers

1-4 Over/Under Record 2-3
20.6 Points Per Game 19.8
18.8 Points Allowed Per Game 22.8
119.8 Rush Yards Allowed Per Game 125.8
215.0 Pass Yards Allowed Per Game 229.8

Both of these teams have been trending towards the under this year, as well. The Chargers have hit the over only once through five weeks, and the Steelers are only one game better.

[This game] could turn into a ground-heavy affair with a constantly-ticking clock.

In addition, both defenses have played well, and both are much better against the pass than the run.

If the rushing attacks from each team can take advantage, this could turn into a ground-heavy affair with a constantly-ticking clock. The fact that the Steelers have a first-time starter under center makes it even more likely that the running game is leaned on this Sunday night.

Pick: Under 41.0 (-105)

Is the 7-Point Spread Enough?

The biggest talking point entering this game is certainly the Steelers’ quarterback situation.

Hodges played well in relief on Sunday, going 7 of 9 for 68 yards. He finished with a passer rating of 98.1. Now making his first start, the last few weeks are encouraging for a Steeler team that has already dealt with change at the quarterback position. In Rudolph’s two complete games, he was solid, and Pittsburgh covered the spread by an average of 11.5 points.

[T]he Chargers have one of the smaller stadiums and weaker home-field advantages in the league.

Another point in favor of the Steelers comes in the venue. It may be the first career start for the new passer, but the Chargers have one of the smaller stadiums and weaker home-field advantages in the league.

If Hodges can avoid turnovers and again play a smart and solid game, the Steelers are very capable of going into Los Angeles and covering the 7-point spread.

Pick: Steelers +7 (-115)

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