By Brady Trettenero in NFL News
Published:
Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season continues after Thursday night’s shocking Giants upset over Philadelphia. The action resumes Sunday morning with the Broncos and Jets squaring off in London at 9:30 AM ET, followed by 13 more games through Monday night. SBD’s formula has generated score predictions for the remaining matchups, and I’ve identified two home underdogs primed for upsets.
The biggest storylines include Lamar Jackson missing his second straight game with a hamstring injury, multiple star receivers sidelined across the league, and weather potentially wreaking havoc on the Ravens-Rams matchup. I’m targeting the Panthers and Falcons as my upset picks this week.
The computer is predicting that San Francisco will upset Tampa Bay and Detroit will take down Kansas City, making them the model’s only outright Week 6 underdog predictions.
Neither of these picks I can confidently recommend. Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield has surged into the top-10 of the NFL MVP odds and should feast against San Fran’s banged-up secondary. Meanwhile, Andy Reid is 14-2 straight coming off a loss, and Pat Mahomes can take advantage of Detroit’s weakened secondary that just lost Terrion Arnold.
I disagree with the formula on two other games this week. These games both involve home underdogs getting points in spots where situational factors and matchup advantages make them strong upset candidates.
I nearly picked against the computer in Ravens-Rams too. The weather creates such ugly conditions that this game becomes a complete toss-up. But with Cooper Rush under center for Baltimore, I can’t pull the trigger on the outright upset. Still, the Ravens getting 7.5 at home is my best bet for Week 6.
This number feels inflated based on public perception. The Ravens sit at 1-4, but they’re getting key players back and playing at home with their season on the line.
Baltimore gets Kyle Hamilton and Marlon Humphrey back in the secondary, which is massive for a defense that’s been torched without them. Ronnie Stanley returns at left tackle to protect Cooper Rush’s blind side. These aren’t backups. They’re All-Pro caliber players who transform this defense.
The weather forecast shows an 80% chance of rain with sustained winds in the upper teens and gusts into the low 30s. This completely changes the game script. Both teams will lean heavily on the run, and that favors Baltimore with Derrick Henry. The Ravens are 10-1 when Henry rushes for 90-plus yards, and the Rams rank 29th in expected points added per rush allowed.
Cooper Rush isn’t as bad as his three-interception disaster against Houston suggests. He was 4-1 when he didn’t throw picks during his Dallas stint. With a full week to prepare and Baltimore’s skill players healthy, he just needs to manage the game and avoid turnovers.
The Rams are coming off a brutal overtime loss to San Francisco and now fly cross-country for a 1 PM ET kick. This is their third trip east this season. Road favorites laying more than a touchdown have been inconsistent, and desperate home teams with their backs against the wall often keep games close.
Seven and a half points is too many in what I project as an ugly, weather-affected grinder. Take the Ravens plus the points. And for more spread analysis, check out Zach Reger’s NFL picks against the spread for Week 6.
The formula has Dallas winning 29.7 to 25.9, but this game has all the ingredients of a trap for the Cowboys. The Panthers are getting three points at home, where they’ve been tough all season.
Dallas enters this game in rough shape. CeeDee Lamb remains out with his ankle injury, leaving their passing game without its best weapon. The Cowboys offensive line is missing Tyler Booker and has Tyler Smith questionable with a knee issue. When you’re already without your WR1, losing protection up front becomes even more problematic.
The Cowboys defense has been atrocious this season. They’re allowing 412 yards per game (dead last in the NFL) and 284.6 passing yards per contest (also worst). They’re surrendering 30.8 points per game, ranking 29th. Even with DaRon Bland and Trevon Diggs expected back, both are playing through injuries and won’t be at full speed.
Rico Dowdle destroyed Miami for 206 rushing yards in Week 5. The former Cowboy gets a revenge game against a Dallas defense that’s been gashed on the ground. With Chuba Hubbard still out, Dowdle should see another 20-plus touches.
Carolina’s offensive line ranks top-seven in run block win rate and top-five in PFF run grades. Bryce Young has been significantly better at home throughout his career. He draws a Dallas secondary that’s allowed the most passing yards and nearly three touchdowns per game over recent weeks.
Sharp money has noticed. 62% of the handle is on Carolina despite 78% of bets backing Dallas. When the public and professionals split this dramatically, side with the sharps.
Monday Night Football at Mercedes-Benz Stadium provides the perfect atmosphere for an upset. The formula likes Buffalo 26-17.4, but several factors favor Atlanta.
The Falcons own the NFL’s top-ranked defense, allowing just 244 yards per game. They’ve had extra time to prepare coming off their bye week. Atlanta’s defensive coordinator has historically given Josh Allen problems with zone coverage and delayed pressure packages.
Buffalo’s been vulnerable as road favorites. They’re just 1-3 ATS in their recent games as favorites and have struggled to cover big numbers away from home. Allen’s been turning the ball over at critical moments, including multiple turnovers against New England in Week 5.
Here’s the mismatch that swings this game: Bijan Robinson against Buffalo’s pathetic run defense. The Bills surrender 145.6 rushing yards per game (27th in NFL) at an absurd 5.56 yards per carry. Robinson’s averaging 136.5 rushing yards per contest and torched Washington for 181 total yards before the bye.
Buffalo’s missing linebacker Matt Milano, their best run defender. Without him, they’ve been gashed repeatedly. Tyler Allgeier provides quality depth behind Robinson, keeping the ground game fresh all night.
Michael Penix Jr. doesn’t need to be spectacular. If Atlanta controls clock and field position with their rushing attack, they can keep Allen on the sideline. The Falcons rank 7th in total offense and have shown they can sustain drives.
The Jets will be without Lazard for personal reasons. Denver should control this game with their defense.
Cooper Rush takes over again for Baltimore. The Ravens get Kyle Hamilton and Marlon Humphrey back from injury, which helps shore up a depleted secondary. Ronnie Stanley also returns at left tackle. Flowers is expected to suit up but won’t be 100% and will see reduced snaps.
Miami’s offense continues without their explosive playmaker. The Chargers face serious protection issues with multiple offensive linemen sidelined. Johnston is trending toward missing the game to avoid reinjury.
Dallas’s best offensive weapon remains out, and Tyler Smith is questionable. Both starting corners are expected back for the Cowboys. Rico Dowdle’s emergence makes Hubbard’s absence less relevant for Carolina.
Tampa Bay has no proven receivers behind their third-stringers. Mac Jones starts again for San Francisco while dealing with knee and oblique issues. The 49ers are also without their star tight end.
Murray’s a game-time decision after limited Friday practice, but he’s likely to be sidelined. His mobility would be limited even if he plays.
Chase missed Friday practice due to illness but is expected to suit up. Green Bay is down two of their top receivers.
Detroit’s defense loses their starting nose tackle and a key corner. Their offensive line also takes a hit with Decker out.
Watson’s Achilles injury keeps him sidelined. Shedeur Sanders has been promoted to QB2 behind Dillon Gabriel following the Joe Flacco trade. Pittsburgh will be without one of their deep threats.
Gibson suffered a torn ACL that ended his season. Gonzalez’s potential absence would weaken New England’s secondary. Kamara’s expected to play through his ankle injury.
Washington is decimated at receiver with both McLaurin and Brown ruled out. Samuel’s status remains uncertain for Monday night.
Buffalo’s run defense takes a big hit without their best linebacker. Against Bijan Robinson, this could be a problem. Atlanta loses a key piece of their passing attack.
Weather could significantly impact several Week 6 games from a betting perspective. The Ravens-Rams matchup faces the worst conditions of the weekend.
Ravens at Rams: This game faces an 80% chance of rain throughout with sustained winds in the upper teens and gusts into the low 30s. Both passing games will struggle significantly. The under looks strong here, and running backs should see increased volume. This weather makes the game nearly unpredictable but definitely keeps scoring down.
Browns at Steelers: Rain showers expected throughout with winds in the low teens. Teams will lean heavily on running games and short passes. Consider the under with both offenses already struggling.
Cowboys at Panthers: No rain but sustained winds in the low to mid-teens with gusts hitting low 20s. Deep passes and field goals could be affected. The wind adds another variable favoring the home underdog.
Bears at Commanders: Monday night brings potential rain showers with sustained winds in the low teens and gusts to low 20s. Another game where the under could have value.
The remaining 10 games should see minimal weather impact. The Bucs-49ers game in Tampa gets perfect conditions with clear skies and calm winds.
Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
Updated: 5 hours ago
