Raiders vs Broncos Picks, Predictions, Props to Target & Odds for TNF

• Riding an NFL-best six-game win streak, the Broncos host the struggling Raiders on TNF in Week 10
• Las Vegas QB Geno Smith has thrown an NFL-worst 11 interceptions this season, and at least one pick in six of eight games
• See the top Raiders vs Broncos picks and predictions, the best player prop to bet, and the latest TNF odds

It’s first-vs-worst in the AFC West in Week 10 as the division-leading Denver Broncos (7-2, 4-0 home, 4-5 ATS, 3-6 O/U) host the two-win Las Vegas Raiders (2-6, 1-3 away, 3-5 ATS, 3-5 O/U) on Thursday Night Football at Empower Field at Mile High. Kickoff is scheduled for 6L15 pm MT/8:15 pm ET with Amazon Prime Video carrying the broadcast.

Denver’s six-game win streak is tied with New England for the longest extant streak in the league. Las Vegas enters on a two-game skid and 1-6 in the last seven.

If the Raiders hope to keep this game from turning into a rout, their anemic offense will need to find a way to produce against Denver’s league-leading pass rush. I don’t see it happening, which is why my Raiders vs Broncos picks start with a wager on Denver to cover the sizable spread.

Raiders vs Broncos Expert Picks & Predictions for Week 10

The statistical gulf between these AFC West rivals, particularly red-zone efficiency and defensive-pressure metrics, make it impossible for me to back the Raiders, despite Las Vegas catching a ton of points and Denver’s ATS record at a subpar 4-5. Denver’s superior offensive production combined with their dominant pass rush establishes a foundation for covering the substantial spread as home favorites.

LV vs DEN ATS Pick: Denver Broncos -8.5 (-110)

The case for backing the Broncos at this number centers on fundamental offensive and defensive advantages that should manifest throughout four quarters of football.

Offensive Efficiency Breakdown:

Denver’s red-zone superiority represents the game’s most critical mismatch. The Broncos convert touchdowns on nearly 68% of their red-zone opportunities compared to Las Vegas’s dismal 45.5% rate. This 22-point differential in touchdown conversion translates directly to scoreboard separation, as the Raiders settle for field goals while Denver finds the end zone.

Defensive Pressure Advantage:

The Broncos’ pass rush is the best in the league with 40 total sacks, averaging 4.4 per game. Despite the presence of Maxx Crosby, the Raiders have just 16 sacks on the season, a paltry 1.8 per game. This relentless pressure should force Smith into quick decisions and potential turnovers. The over/under on Smith’s interceptions sits at 0.5 with heavy juice toward the over (-175), indicating market expectation for defensive takeaways.

Situational Trends Supporting Broncos ATS Bet:

• The Broncos are 7-2 ATS as home favorites of 7+ points over their last nine games
• Denver is 4-1 ATS following wins by 14+ points in their last five such instances
• Las Vegas is 2-6 ATS as road underdogs of 7+ points this season
• The Raiders are 1-4 ATS in divisional road games over their last five attempts

Raiders vs Broncos Over/Under Pick: Under 43.0 Points (-110)

Despite Denver’s offensive capabilities, the combination of Las Vegas’s scoring struggles and potential game script favors a lower-scoring affair.

The Raiders average just 16.2 points per game and managed only 95 total yards in their shutout loss to Kansas City. Even with garbage-time production, Las Vegas lacks the explosive playmakers to consistently move the ball against Denver’s opportunistic defense. The Broncos should control field position through their pass rush advantage.

Game script considerations support the under as Denver builds an early lead and transitions to clock management with their ground attack. The Broncos’ balanced rushing approach allows them to shorten the game in the second half.

Best Raiders vs Broncos Player Prop to Bet: Geno Smith Over 0.5 interceptions (-175)

Smith has been exceedingly generous with the ball all season, throwing a league-worst 11 picks in just eight games. He’s only been clean in two of eight games this year, and now he faces the league’s best pass rush. He’s been making bad decision all season and that’s only going to get worse with relentless pressure from all sides; four members of Denver’s front seven have four or more sacks already.

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos Odds

Odds as of November 5, 2025 at 9:39 AM EST from MGM.

As of Wednesday afternoon, the Broncos are -474 favorites at BetMGM (and shorter elsewhere). The Raider moneyline is as long as +385 at FanDuel. Without the vig, the moneyline odds give Denver a 79.2% implied win probability, and Las Vegas just 20.8%.

The spread ranges from DEN -8.5 to -9.5. Bet365 and ESPN Bet have the best ATS number for Denver bettors, while FanDuel against is the best option for Las Vegas backers.

The total also shows a one-point range still. Under bettors can get 43.5 (-125) at DraftKings. Over bettors can get 42.5 (-110) at bet365.

Odds commentary as of 12:41 pm ET, November 5th. Check out SBD’s guide to online slots if you’re interested in leaning about iGaming.

LV vs DEN Public Betting Trends: Sharp Money Aligns with Denver

The betting market shows overwhelming support for the Broncos across all markets, with both casual and professional money seeming to be on the home favorites.

Spread & Moneyline Handle:

• 87.8% of moneyline money backing Denver (-420)
• 81.6% of ATS handle on Broncos -8.5
• 74.2% of ATS bets favor Denver to cover

Total Points Split:

• 57.1% of money on Over 42.5 points
• 52.8% of individual bets on Under 42.5 points

This reverse line movement on the total suggests sharper money expects higher scoring than the general public anticipates. But that’s not enough to put me off the under.