Rams vs Seahawks Picks, Predictions & Closing Odds

• The Seahawks are 1.5-point favorites over the Rams on Thursday Night Football
• These two teams rank first and second in the NFL per DVOA
• See below for my Rams vs Seahawks picks and predictions, plus the closing odds for TNF

We’ve got an absolute banger on Thursday Night Football tonight as the Rams (11-3, 5-2 away) visit the Seahawks (11-3, 5-2 home). The winner of this matchup will move into sole possession of not only first in the NFC West, but first in the conference standings as well.

Online sportsbooks began the week favoring LA, but the line has since flipped in the latest TNF odds. Seattle is now a slight home favorite, but I’m bypassing the spread altogether to focus on the total for my Rams vs Seahawks picks.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 pm ET / 5:15 pm PT from Lumen Field, in Seattle, WA, and on Amazon Prime. Here are my Rams vs Seahawks picks and predictions, as well as the closing odds.

Rams vs Seahawks Picks and Predictions

• Under 43.5 (-122 at BetRivers)

These are the two best teams in the NFL, and the numbers bare that out. They rank first and second per DVOA, and boast the shortest and second shortest Super Bowl odds. They faced off earlier in the season, with LA emerging with a 21-19 victory. That game fell short of the total thanks to some great defense, and I’m expecting this game to underwhelm offensively as well.

Let’s start on the Rams side of the ball. Matthew Stafford enters play as the NFL MVP odds favorite, but he’ll be down his top red zone threat Davante Adams.

The TD machine suffered a hamstring injury last week, and his absence greatly reduces the Rams touchdown efficiency. LA has gone from scoring touchdowns at a 51% clip inside the opponent’s 20 last year, to a 67% TD rate this season with Adams.

Points will be tough to come by without him, as Seattle brings one of the top rated defenses into play. The Seahawks defense ranks number one in yards per play, and number two in EPA/play. Only the Texans surrender fewer points per game, while no team is stingier against the pass. Seattle yields a league-low 6.0 yards per attempt, and held Stafford to his lowest output of the season in their first meeting.

Stafford vs Seahawks in Week 11

It may be nothing, but if you want another reason to fade the Rams consider the following. Sean McVay has been sick this week with the flu and his wife just gave birth to their second child. It would be understandable if he wasn’t 100% locked in on a short week.

As for the Seahawks offense, they started showing leaks against the Rams and it’s continued over their last four games. Since their Week 10 victory, Seattle ranks 19th in EPA/play, and 22nd in rushing success rate. Sam Darnold was picked off four times in his first meeting with LA, and has as many INT (5) as TD passes (5) over his last five starts.

Life won’t get any easier with the Rams in town, who bring a top-five defense of their own into play. LA ranks fifth in EPA/play allowed and opponent success rate, and has surrendered a league-low 5 rushing TD. Yes, Darnold still has all-world talent Jaxon Smith-Njigba to throw to, but the cupboard is bare behind him, while the running back duo of Kenneth Walker III and the Zach Charbonnet is one of the least efficient in football. In other words, points are going to be tough to come by.

Looking for more Rams vs Seahawks plays? Check out the following:

• Rams vs Seahawks same-game parlay
• Rams vs Seahawks player props
• Rams vs Seahawks expert predictions and picks

LAR vs SEA Closing Odds for TNF

As always, make sure you check out the best football betting apps if you’re wagering on the total or any other market. The best book to bet the under at is BetRivers, who are offering the lowest juice on a 43.5 point total. As for the spread, BetMGM has the shortest odds on both sides, while BetMGM is also offering the best payout on a Rams upset victory.

Odds as of Dec. 18 at 5:30 pm ET. Claim the BetMGM promo code before wagering on Thursday Night Football.

Per the NFL public betting trends, beware of betting against LA. The Rams are 10-3 ATS against the Seahawks since 2019, and 11-4 against the spread in the Stafford era when the spread is less than 3.