Rams vs Bears Closing Lines, Weather Forecast & Final Picks

• The Los Angeles Rams and Chicago Bears kickoff in under two hours from Soldier Field
• As forecast, the weather in Chicago is well-below freezing with not-insignificant winds
• See the Rams vs Bears closing lines, odds movement, and my final picks for the game

The Los Angeles Rams and Chicago Bears are scheduled to kickoff their Divisional Round playoff game from Soldier Field at 5:30 pm CT/6:30 pm ET tonight. The temperature is just 19° with 12-15 mph winds and potentially 20-25 mph gusts.

Los Angeles opened as a favorite and remains sizable road chalk. Below, I have set out the Rams vs Bears closing odds (and line movement), the latest weather forecast, and my final Rams/Bears picks for January 18th.

Rams vs Bears Closing Lines

After opening as 4.5-point road favorites, the Rams have dropped to -3.5 at most sportsbooks just hours from kickoff. That line movement has come in the last couple hours, as Los Angeles was still laying 4.5 points as of Sunday morning. The best LA moneyline is now -195 at BetRivers, which is a modest change from -198 earlier today. The best Chicago moneyline, counterintuitively, is now +180 at BetMGM, which is slightly longer than the +176 price available earlier on gameday.

The NFL public betting percentages held explain the discrepancy between spread movement and moneyline movement: Chicago is getting 62% of ATS handle but just 53% of moneyline handle.

The game total still shows a one-point range from 48.5 to 49.5. The books that have it at 48.5 (e.g. FanDuel) have extra juice on the over, while the books that have it at 49.5 (e.g. DraftKings) have extra juice on the under. Both numbers represent a drop from the opening total of 50.5.

Odds and commentary as of 4:29 pm ET. The prices in the table will constantly update with the best-available price for each market.

Latest Rams/Bears Weather Forecast

The is likely to be some snow and moderate winds, but the cold is going to be the biggest factor.

Matthew Stafford, who started his career in the Ford Field dome before moving to the warmer climes to LA, has very little history in temperatures this cold: just four career starts when the game-time temperature is under 30°. And those starts have left a lot to be desired, as Chris Wright pointed out in his Divisional Round Weather Forecast article.

Final Rams vs Bears Pick

• First Quarter – Under 8.5 points (+110) at Fanatics

The final Rams vs Bears pick I’m targeting is under 8.5 points in the first quarter. FanDuel and DraftKings are offering under 9.5 at +106 and +105 respectively but, realistically, there’s no difference between 8.5 and 9.5 unless you think there’s a real chance of a safety in the first 15 minutes. I’ll gladly concede the extra point in favor of a slightly larger payout.

With the stakes so high and the weather forecast favoring defenses, don’t be surprised if we see run-heavy approaches from both teams out of the gate. The Rams tend to be a pass-first offense, but the Bears led the league in interceptions (23). Even if Sean McVay doesn’t exactly go “run heavy” early on, I don’t foresee a lot of deep shots. Expect more short throws equivalent to runs, which will keep the clock moving without gaining chunk yardage.

The Bears have been a run-first team (and, often, run-second team) all year long. Caleb Williams is arguably the most-dangerous QB in the league with his legs. Chicago had the third-most rushing attempts (505) and third-most rushing yards (144.5 per game) during the regular season. After Caleb Williams threw two interceptions against the Packers in his first postseason game last week, Ben Johnson is likely to give his young pivot a series of safe, easy throws early on.

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