Rams vs Bears Expert Picks, Betting Splits & Injury Reports
By Sascha Paruk in NFL News
Published:
- The Los Angeles Rams visit the Chicago Bears in the final game of the Divisional Round
- The Rams are sizable road favorites
- See my Rams vs Bears expert picks, plus the latest betting splits and injury news
A marquee NFC Divisional Round clash awaits as Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams (13-5, 6-4 away, 12-6 ATS) travel to the Windy City to face Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears (12-6, 7-2 home, 12-6 ATS) at 6:30 pm ET with NBC/Peacock providing national broadcast coverage.
The Rams enter Soldier Field as 3.5-point road favorites, a testament to their offensive firepower and playoff experience. The primary storyline revolves around contrasting quarterback philosophies: Stafford’s veteran precision against Williams’ explosive comeback artistry that has defined Chicago’s resurgence.
The winner will advanced to the NFC Championship Game where the top-seeded Seattle Seahawks await in the 2026 NFL playoff bracket.
Below, I have set out my data-driven expert picks, along with the latest odds, betting splits, and key injury news.
GO TO: PICKS || ODDS || SPLITS || INJURIES
Rams vs Bears Expert Picks & Predictions
ATS Pick: Bears +4.0 (-114) at BetRivers
I don’t love much about the Bears. They’ve been playing with fire all season long and their defense doesn’t really do anything particularly well except generate turnovers, which isn’t a sustainable statistic.
But I’m still backing the Bears to cover this sizable spread. The Rams haven’t played a truly complete game since early December, and now they’re walking into horrendously cold conditions at Soldier Field.
As I’ll discuss more below, I expect a relatively pedestrian night from Matthew Stafford and the Rams’ passing game in the inclement weather. Chicago’s run-based attack, which rated fourth in the NFL at PFF, is better suited to today’s conditions. They won’t run up the score on a Rams defense that rated third in rushing defense, but they are apt to control more time of possession and at least stay within striking distance against the fair-weather Rams.
Best Player Prop to Bet: Stafford Under 265.5 Pass Yards (-112) at DraftKings
This line has already dropped from its opening number of 270.5 and is as low as 260.5 at some sportsbooks. DraftKings still has it at a baseline of 265.5 and that’s entirely too high given the conditions Matthew Stafford is going to face and his previous performances in frigid conditions.
As my colleague Chris Wright pointed out in his Divisional Round Weather Forecasts article, Stafford has only played four career games in temperatures below 30° F. He has never thrown for more than 266 yards, and in three of the four games, his passer rating was below 90. In the 2025 regular season, he posted a career-best 109.2 passer rating, but that was in exclusively temperate conditions.
The Chicago secondary is vulnerable, rating 21st in coverage at PFF, and allowed 323 yards to Jordan Love and the Packers last week. Those 323 yards came on a staggering 42 pass attempts, though. In Stafford’s four cold-weather games, he’s attempted 32 or fewer passes three times.
Chicago’s run defense is just about as vulnerable as its pass defense (19th at PFF) and, as good as LA’s passing attack is, I expect a more run-centric approach from Sean McVay, especially with the brutal temperatures complemented by winds in the 10-15 mph range.
Updated LA Rams vs CHI Bears Odds: Divisional Round
As of Sunday morning, the Rams are now -198 or shorter on the moneyline (best odds at DraftKings), while the Bears are as long as +167 (best odds at Caesars). Based on current moneyline odds, the vig-free win probabilities are:
- Los Angeles Rams: 63.9%
- Chicago Bears: 36.1%
The spread ranges from LAR -3.5 to -4.0 with bet365 offering the best price on the Rams to cover (-3.5 at -110) and BetRivers offering the best price on the Bears to cover (+4.0 at -114).
The game total also shows a half-point range with the best over number at bet365 (Ov 48.5 at -110) and the best under number at BetMGM (Un 49.0 at -110).
Odds commentary as of 10:56 am ET, January 18. The lines in the table will update automatically if the NFL odds move before kickoff at 6:30 pm ET.
Rams vs Bears Public Betting Splits
Sunday’s NFL public betting percentages reveal a fascinating divide between casual public action and professional money, particularly evident in the moneyline wagering patterns. While recreational bettors gravitate toward familiar narratives, sharper money appears to be identifying value on the underdog.
Current betting splits across key markets:
- Point Spread: Heavy sharp money (67.3%) on Chicago Bears +4
- Moneyline: Majority of money (58.7%) supporting Chicago Bears (+165) outright victory
- Total Points: Public leaning toward Over 48.5 with 56.6% of handle
The most revealing split occurs on the moneyline, where 63.6% of individual tickets back the Rams to win, but 58.7% of actual dollars favor the Bears. This classic sharp-vs-public divergence suggests larger, more sophisticated wagers are taking Chicago plus the points and the moneyline value, which directly supports my best bets, above.
LAR vs CHI Injury Report Impact
Both teams enter the divisional round with notable players managing various ailments, though no franchise cornerstones appear in serious jeopardy of missing the contest.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
