Rams vs Panthers Closing Odds & Picks

• The Rams are 10-point favorites over the Panthers in the Wild Card Round
• The total dropped two points before climbing back up a point on Saturday
• See my Rams vs Panthers picks and closing odds for the Jan. 10 Wild Card matchup below

The NFL playoffs kick off Saturday afternoon with the Rams (12-5, 4-4 away) traveling to face the Panthers (8-9, 6-3 home) in the Wild Card Round. LA enters as heavy favorites despite Carolina pulling off the upset back in Week 13, and online sportsbooks expect a much different result in the latest NFL odds.

The line has moved throughout the week, but the total has seen the real action. Sharp money is talking, and I’m listening.

Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 pm ET from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC, and on FOX. Here are the closing odds and my Rams vs Panthers picks.

LAR vs CAR Closing Odds

The Rams opened as 9.5-point favorites on January 5, then climbed to -10.5 throughout the week. Most books have settled at Rams -10 (-108 to -112), with the Panthers coming back at +10.

The total has moved the most. After opening at 46.5, the number dropped to 44.5 before climbing back to 45.5 as of Saturday afternoon. That late buyback doesn’t shake my confidence. DraftKings has Under 45.5 at -112.

Moneyline has the Rams at -535, with Carolina at +425. That 10-point spread in a playoff game is rare. Oddsmakers expect LA to dominate wire-to-wire.

Odds as of Jan. 10 at 2 pm ET. Check out the best football betting apps before wagering on Wild Card Weekend.

Per the NFL public betting trends, sharp money is all over the Panthers +10. The public hammered LA on the spread early, but 59% of the handle is now backing Carolina. Classic sharp vs. square action.

On the total, the public is backing the Over with 76% of tickets and 67% of handle. However, the Under is seeing larger bets with 32% of handle on just 24% of tickets. The Under is a clear contrarian play, and fading heavy public consensus on totals pays long-term.

Rams vs Panthers Picks

• Under 45.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

The total opened at 46.5 and dropped to 44.5 before late money pushed it back to 45.5. That buyback tells me some over bettors got greedy, but I’m not backing off. Wild Card contests feature playoff intensity defense, and history backs that up.

Since 2020, Wild Card games have averaged just 47.2 combined points. Last year’s slate produced a measly 39.2 average across three games. Teams tighten up in do-or-die scenarios. Both coaching staffs will lean conservative.

Wild Card Round Scoring Trends

Carolina’s offense is the main reason I’m hammering this under. The Panthers averaged just 18.3 points per game during the regular season, one of the worst marks in football. They scored 17 or fewer points in 10 games this year, and 14 or fewer eight times. That’s brutal for a playoff team.

LA’s defense will only make matters worse. The Rams rank fourth in pressure rate despite blitzing at a bottom-five clip. They allowed just 20.4 points per game with 47 sacks and a +11 turnover differential. Carolina’s 36.1% third-down conversion rate won’t cut it.

The Rams defense is nasty on third-and-long. LA allowed just 17.7% conversion rate on third-and-7-plus, third best in the league. They also allowed just 36.3% on third down overall, second best in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Panthers surrendered a league-worst 37.1% conversion rate in third-and-long situations. Carolina allowed 36 third-and-long conversions this season, most in football.

Weather won’t be a factor either. It’s 61 degrees at Bank of America Stadium on artificial turf. Neutral conditions that favor defensive execution over explosive plays.

Game script also favors the under. The 10-point spread means LA builds an early lead and shifts to clock management. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum combined for 1,998 rushing yards this season. Sean McVay will lean on that duo to milk possessions. Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard give Carolina a similar ground attack.

Both teams rank among the most disciplined in football, averaging among the fewest penalties per game. Fewer clock stoppages means more game time burned. Add in the Rams 18.4% blitz rate (second lowest) and Carolina’s 23.1% rate (20th), and you get two teams content to play base defense and keep things tight.

For Carolina to cover, they need to keep this game in the 20s. For the over to hit 45, LA needs to score 30-plus. I don’t see either happening.

Looking for more Rams vs Panthers plays? Check out the following:

• Rams vs Panthers Props
• Rams vs Panthers Same-Game Parlay