Rams vs Seahawks Picks, Predictions & Odds for NFC West Showdown on TNF
By Sascha Paruk in NFL News
Published:
- The Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks meet in a massive NFC West game on Thursday Night Football
- Tied at 11-3, the winner will have top spot in the division and the conference with two games to play
- See my Rams vs Seahawks picks, predictions, and best bets, plus the latest betting lines and money splits
The NFC West title race reaches its crescendo on Thursday Night Football in Week 16 as the Los Angeles Rams (11-3, 5-2 away, 10-4 ATS, 7-7 O/U) travel to Lumen Field to take on the Seattle Seahawks (11-3, 5-2 home, 10-4 ATS, 8-6 O/U). Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 pm ET.
The teams have identical 11-3 records but the Rams hold the tiebreaker due to a head-to-head win in Week 11. If the Seahawks win on TNF, not only would they move a game up on the Rams in the NFC West, they would also take over the #1 seed in the conference – and put themselves in position to earn the lone bye – with just two games to go.
Adding intrigue to the proceedings, former Rams icon Cooper Kupp will face his old team for the second time since his trade to Seattle. He was limited to 23 yards on three catches back in Week 11. The emotional subplot underscores the intensity of a rivalry that’s been rekindled with championship implications.
Below, check out my Rams vs Seahawks picks and predictions, plus the latest betting lines and money splits.
JUMP TO: PICKS || ODDS || BETTING SPLITS
Rams vs Seahawks Picks, Best Bets & Predictions for TNF
LAR vs SEA ATS Pick: Rams +1.5 (-120) at DraftKings Sportsbook
This as essentially a pick-em game, but the statistics reveals meaningful edges that separate these two NFC West contenders. While Seattle enjoys home-field advantage at the notoriously loud Lumen Field, Los Angeles has superior execution in the game’s most-critical aspects.
Los Angeles demonstrates superior red zone execution at 66.7%, significantly outpacing Seattle’s 57.4% conversion rate. In what projects as a possession-by-possession battle, the team that maximizes scoring opportunities inside the 20-yard line will gain a substantial edge.
Los Angeles also boasts a remarkable +8 turnover differential compared to Seattle’s concerning -2 mark. In a game projected to be decided by a field goal or less, protecting the football will be paramount.
The Rams have been particularly disciplined this season, committing just 12 turnovers while forcing 20. Conversely, the Seahawks have coughed up 23 turnovers, including several costly interceptions in crucial moments.
LAR vs SEA Game-Total Pick: Under 43.0 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
This total has plummeted from 46.5 in the opening Week 16 odds all the way to just 43.0 at some books. One of the primary reasons for the steep decline is weather: there is an 87% chance of rain in Seattle tomorrow with moderate crosswinds. Downfield throws are going to be difficult to complete, allowing both defenses to stack the box more than usual.
The NFL over/under trends also support an under bet here. Over the last ten LAR/SEA games, the total has only exceeded 43 on four occasions, staying under in the other six, including Week 11 (40 points).
Best Player Prop: Puka Nacua Anytime Touchdown (+110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Nacua represents exceptional value at +110 to find the end zone. As the focal point of a Rams offense that converts red-zone opportunities at an elite 66.7% rate, the third-year receiver is a key scoring threat. His receiving-yards prop sits at 94.5, indicating oddsmakers expect heavy target volume, as he’s seen all season long (9.9 per game, third in the NFL).
Nacua projects as the most-likely candidate to capitalize on the Rams’ red-zone efficiency.
Latest LA Rams vs Seattle Seahawks Odds & Betting Lines
The moneyline and spread have held relatively steady over the week. The best LAR moneyline is currently -104 at FanDuel, while the best SEA moneyline is -110 at a few different books, including bet365 and DraftKings.
The total, as mentioned, has dropped precipitously, sitting as low as 43.0 (bet365). The highest total still on the board is 43.5 at Caesars Sportsbook.
Odds and commentary as of 12:27 pm ET, Dec 17. The lines in the table will update automatically if the TNF odds move before kickoff.
SEA vs LAR Public-Betting Breakdown
The NFL public betting data shows a clear verdict in this NFC West rivalry, with significant handle flowing toward the visiting Rams across all major markets.
Current Betting Splits:
- Spread: 62% of money backing Rams -1.5
- Moneyline: 67% of handle on Rams to win outright
- Total: 65% of money on Over 43.5
My analysis aligns with market sentiment, as both my primary ATS and game-total picks match where the smart money is flowing.
Injury Report: Key Players to Monitor
Considering the late-stage of the season, both teams are in relatively good health heading into Thursday Night Football. The final injury reports should have little to no impact on the betting lines. Any changes to the weather forecast will be of much greater interest to bettors.
Statistical Matchup Analysis
The season-long numbers reveal why Los Angeles enters as road favorites despite Seattle’s home-field advantage. The Rams demonstrate superior efficiency across multiple offensive categories while maintaining better discipline.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
