Ravens Catching Steelers in Odds to Win AFC North
- The Steelers are still favored to win the AFC North at -260
- But Pittsburgh’s odds were a lot shorter before they lost to the Broncos and Chargers in Weeks 12 & 13
- The Baltimore Ravens have won three straight and improved to +175 in the AFC North futures
Two weeks ago, the Pittsburgh Steelers enjoyed a 2.5-game lead in the AFC North and another division title was all but certain.
Fast forward to Week 14 and it’s down to just half a game thanks to the Steelers losing back-to-back games and the Ravens stringing together two more wins.
Ahead of Week 14, here’s how the AFC North futures look.
Odds to Win the AFC North
| AFC North Teams | Odds |
|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -260 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +175 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +7000 |
| Cleveland Browns | +12500 |
This is the closest race on the board at the sportsbook, which makes some sense since it is the smallest gap currently held by a division leader.
However, the Steelers -260 odds, which carry an implied probability of 72.2%, undervalue their chances to win the North.
In order to win the division the Ravens will have to make up one full game over the last four weeks of the year.
Steelers and Ravens Remaining Schedules
| Steelers | Week | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| @ Raiders | 14 | @ Chiefs |
| vs Patriots | 15 | vs Buccaneers |
| @ Saints | 16 | @ Chargers |
| vs Bengals | 17 | vs Browns |
There’s no such thing as a guaranteed win in the NFL. Week 13’s Cardinals vs Packers game showed that. But facing the Raiders in Oakland in Week 13 plus a home date with the Bengals in Week 17 are as close as you can get. It is safe to pencil in the Steelers for 2-2 at worst. And given how different the Patriots have looked on the road this year (5-0 home, 3-3 road), the Steelers chances to win that game are no worse than 50/50.
Meanwhile, the Ravens face a tougher road. They will be sizable underdogs in their road games with the Chiefs and Chargers, and the Bucs and Browns are playing much better football than the Raiders and Bengals.
On the whole, their “hard” games are just as hard as Pittsburgh’s, and their “easy” games aren’t nearly as easy.
The various playoff projection systems out there all give Pittsburgh at least a 71% chance to win the division, and some put it much higher.
Steelers Division Title Chances
| Projection System | Steelers Division Title Chances (Dec. 4) |
|---|---|
| Action Network | 91% |
| Football Outsiders | 78% |
| Team Rankings | 71% |
| FiveThirtyEight | 71% |
My own math slots in somewhere around Football Outsiders (high 70s). There’s about a 50/50 chance that Pittsburgh goes 3-1 over the next four weeks, which would mean that Baltimore would have to go 4-0 to win the division. As serviceable as rookie Lamar Jackson has been under center, that’s not happening, not with games in Kansas City and LA remaining.
The Steelers Would Win the Tiebreaker
A tie atop the AFC North is extremely unlikely since Pittsburgh already has a tie on its record. But if it came down to that, Pittsburgh would win. The teams split their head-to-head (which is the first tie-breaker), so the team with a better record in divisional games would win.
At 3-1-1, Pittsburgh has already clinched a better divisional record than the 2-3 Ravens.
Betting Advice
Everything favors the Steelers winning the AFC North. They have a half-game head start, they have an easier schedule, and they are the better team statistically, ranking 6th overall in DVOA compared to 8th for the Ravens.
It’s never fun laying -260, but it’s the right play in the circumstances.
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
