San Francisco 49ers vs Indianapolis Colts Odds, Picks and Predictions for MNF
By Chris Amberley in NFL News
Published:
- The 49ers are 5.5-point favorites versus the Colts on Monday Night Football
- Indy has failed to score 20 points in three straight games
- See the 49ers vs Colts odds, picks and predictions for Monday Night Football, below
Week 16 wraps up with the 49ers (10-4, 6-2 away) visiting the Colts (8-6, 6-1 home). 44-year-old Philip Rivers is slated to make his second straight start for Indy, as the Colts try to stay alive in the NFL playoff bracket.
Online sportsbooks are siding with the Niners in the latest MNF odds, but I’m avoiding the spread market all together to focus on the total. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm ET/5:15pm PT from Lucas Oil Stadium, in Indianapolis, IN, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.
Below, you’ll find the latest 49ers vs Colts odds, plus my picks and predictions for Monday Night Football.
SF 49ers vs IND Colts Odds
Before making any Monday Night Football wager, be sure to consult the best football betting apps. Bet365 is currently offering a 46.5-point total, while most other commercial books have moved the over/under down to 46.
As for the spread, San Fran opened up as 6-point chalk, but the number has moved half a point in the Colts favor. If you want to lay the points, DraftKings has the shortest odds on Niners -5.5, while BetMGM is the book to wager at if you want to grab the points with Indy.
Per the NFL public betting percentages, the under is likely going to be a popular bet. That side of the total is 3-1 in the Colts last four games, and Indy is projected to play extremely slow and run heavy with Rivers under center.
Odds as of Dec. 21. New customers can claim the DraftKings promo code and get a bonus to bet on MNF.
49ers vs Colts Picks and Predictions
With the Colts determined to keep Rivers upright and limit possessions, I’m running to bet under 46.5 points. Indy let Rivers drop back just 27 times last week, and he attempted only eight passes of at least 10 yards. The wiley vet completed only two of those throws, and averaged just 4.8 yards per attempt overall. Indianapolis put up 16 points, marking the third straight game they’ve failed to reach the 20 point mark.
Philip Rivers Week 15 Stats
The Colts did their best to play keep away from Seattle, and for the most part it worked. They ran the ball 30 times and limited the Seahawks offense to just 59 offensive plays. Indy wasn’t particularly effective posting just a 38.7% rushing success rate, but they bled the clock and kept themselves in the game. A similar strategy will be deployed on MNF, and they should find more success against the Niners bottom-12 run defense.
On the other side of the ball, the Colts dialed up a fantastic defensive game plan that stymied Seattle’s offense. The Seahawks and 49ers rate similarly in Total EPA and EPA/pass, which suggests Indy can slow down Brock Purdy and Co. It doesn’t hurt that Purdy will be missing one of his top targets for this game, as Ricky Pearsall is hurt yet again. Also working in favor of Indy is the return of DeForest Buckner. The Colts top defensive lineman will suit up for the first time in nearly two months, and significantly boosts their defensive prowess.
San Fran comes in on quite a roll, having won four straight. A top-10 preseason Super Bowl 60 odds contender, they’re still alive in the hunt for the NFC West title and the conference’s top seed. They’ll need to win out to give themselves a chance, and they can clinch a playoff spot with a victory on MNF. They’ve been ravaged by injuries all season, especially on defense, but that side of the ball has turned things around recently.
They’ve allowed an average of only 16 points per game over their last four games, ranking eighth in EPA/play allowed, and 12th in defensive success rate. Their biggest weakness is against the pass, but a 44-year-old Rivers isn’t going to expose that.
Ultimately, this game profiles as a slow paced slog. Indy is going to try and drag San Fran into the mud, and the Colts defense should be able to limit explosives and keep the Niners big play threats like Christian McCaffrey in front of them. That sounds like the perfect recipe for an under, especially when the total is as high as it currently is.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
