Seahawks vs 49ers Picks & Closing Odds for Jan 3

• The Seahawks are 2.5-point favorites over the 49ers tonight
• The winner will claim the NFC West division title and the conference’s number one seed
• See below for my Seahawks vs 49ers picks, and the closing odds for the Jan. 3 showdown

There’s no bigger game on the Week 18 slate than tonight’s Seahawks (13-3, 7-1 away) versus 49ers (12-4, 5-2 home) tilt. Not only is the NFC West crown on the line, but so is the conference’s number one seed and a first-round playoff bye.

Online sportsbooks are siding with Seattle as short road favorites in the latest NFL odds, and I fully agree. I’m making Seahawks -2.5 my favorite Seahawks vs 49ers pick, while also throwing some action on Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s receiving yards prop.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8pm ET / 5pm PT from Levi’s Stadium, in Santa Clara, CA, and on ABC. Here are my Seahawks vs 49ers picks and the closing odds.

Seahawks vs 49ers Picks

• Seahawks -2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 94.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Seattle is definitely the right side here. The Seahawks are the number one team by DVOA, and are the second best defense by almost every metric behind the Texans. San Francisco, meanwhile, is a mess on that side of the ball, and while their offense is red-hot, they are dealing with significant injuries.

The biggest question is can Sam Darnold shed his turnover woes, and get the Seattle offense back on track. From Weeks 1-9, the Super Bowl odds favorites were second in EPA per drop back. Since Week 10, it’s been a different story. The Seahawks rank 23rd in that metric, with Darnold throwing just as many interceptions (9) as touchdowns (9) over that stretch.

The good news for Seattle backers, is the state of the Niners defense. San Fran has been decimated by defensive injuries, and have been leaking points over the last few months. Since Week 7, they rank 30th in success rate, and have surrendered 89 points in the last three games alone.

The 49ers are allergic to generating pressure, and play way too much cover 4. They yield over 9 yards per pass in that coverage, and that’s exactly the type of scheme JSN destroys. Smith-Njigba has 33 catches and 546 receiving yards versus cover 4 this season, over 200 yards more than anyone else.

He also leads the league with 1,196 receiving yards on throws of at least 10 yards, while no other player is even over a 1,000 yards on those passes. As a result, I’m hammering over 94.5 receiving yards for him tonight.

49ers Defense Since Week 7

As for the Niners offense, Brock Purdy has that unit humming. Purdy leads the league in EPA/play since returning from injury in Week 12, and ranks second in success rate behind NFL MVP odds favorite Drake Maye. San Fran has put up 37+ points in three straight games, and have five double-digit wins in their last six outings.

On paper, the Niners offense is a scary team to bet against. However, if we look closer we can poke holes in their recent success. Over the last six weeks, they’ve played one team ranked above 13th in defensive success rate. Five of those opponents ranked bottom-15 in scoring defense, and only the Bears are playoff bound at the time of writing.

Then there’s the injury concerns. Star left tackle Trent Williams is doubtful, while top-two receiver Ricky Pearsall is hopeful. Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle will play, but both are dealing with nagging injuries.

That spells trouble against this Seahawks defense. Seattle ranks fourth in pressure rate, despite blitzing at a bottom-five clip. They boast the league’s third highest graded coverage unit, and are the best team per EPA against the run.

The Seahawks stout defense, plus the Niners injury woes and atrocious defense make Seattle -2.5 the clear wager to make.

Looking for more Seahawks vs 49ers plays? Check out the following:

• Seahawks vs 49ers Player Props
• Seahawks vs 49ers Same-Game Parlay

SEA vs SF Closing Odds

As always, make sure you check out the best football betting apps if you’re wagering on tonight’s game. I bet Seattle -1.5 early on Saturday morning, but since then most commercial books have moved the line to Seahawks -2.5.

Total-wise, the over/under is down to as low as 47.5, after opening 2 points higher. Seattle is -143 on the moneyline, with San Fran coming back as +125 underdogs.

Odds as of Jan. 3 at 4:30 pm ET. Claim the BetMGM promo code before wagering on Week 18 NFL.

Per the NFL public betting trends, online sportsbooks will be rooting for the Seahawks as well. 68% of the ATS tickets and handle are on San Fran, meaning books will be Seattle fans tonight just like me.