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Sharps Loving the Under in Seahawks vs Browns Week 6 Matchup, Public betting the Over; Which Way Should You Bet?

Russell Wilson and the Seahawks travel to Cleveland to play the Browns in Week 6. Photo By Larry Maurer (Wiki Commons) [CC License].
  • The 4-1 Seahawks take a road trip to meet the 2-3 Browns at First Energy Stadium
  • The total has seen significant movement, going from 46 to 47.5, before moving back down to 46 again, then finally settling at 47
  • Check our preview below to see what side of the total to lean on

The 4-1 Seahawks go to Cleveland to meet the 2-3 Browns, who are looking to find momentum after a rocky start to the season. Seattle has been the stronger team through the first five weeks of the year, but this road trip to First Energy Stadium is an interesting matchup that has seen a lot of movement in the Seahawks vs Browns odds and stats.

Seahawks vs Browns Odds

Team Spread at BookMaker Total Moneyline
Seahawks -1 (-113) O 47 (-114) -119
Browns +1 (-107) U 47 (-106) -101

*Odds from 11/10/19

At BookMaker.eu, the biggest mover in this game has been the total. After opening at 46, it jumped as high as 47.5, before sinking back down to 46. It has now moved back up to 47.

Where’s the Money?

A big factor in the movement of the total has been where the money has come in. According to BookMaker, 83% of the total money has been bet on the over. The total bet count is also in favor of a high-scoring game, with 53% of bets coming on the over.

However, while the public is all over the Russell Wilson and Baker Mayfield-led offenses putting on a show, 89% of the sharp money is currently backing the under. That divide is a big reason that this total has gone up and down this week.

Sharps or Squares?

Many expect that, with Seahawks offense playing well and the Browns looking to bounce back with Mayfield and his cast of weapons, this game could be a high-scoring one that goes over the total. However, the sharp side is the one to go with for this Sunday’s matchup.

The Browns’ disappointing offensive numbers this year point to the under in this game. Cleveland’s offense ranks 25th in points per game with only 18.4, and 22nd in offensive yards per game with 340.2. For a unit that came into the year with so much hype, they’ve struggled through five games.

 

Seahawks Love a Low-Scoring Affair

However, it is Seattle’s tendencies that make the under especially appealing on Sunday. Seahawks offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer absolutely loves to run the ball. The Seahawks do so on 48% of offensive plays, the 4th highest rate in the NFL. They average 122.6 yards per game, which ranks 12th in league. Despite that disparity, Schottenheimer will run the ball regardless of the inefficiency at times. The Browns could construct a brick wall at the line of scrimmage, and the Seahawks would still send Chris Carson up the middle.

Seahawks vs Browns Head-to-Head

Seahawks
VS
Browns

4-1 Record 2-3
3-2 Over/Under 2-3
2-3 Record Against the Spread 2-3
26.6 (8) Points Per Game (NFL Rank) 18.4 (25)

The Browns, meanwhile, allow 150.8 rushing yards per game, which ranks 29th in the league. The Seahawks are certainly aware of that stat, and there’s no doubt that Schottenheimer will provide a heavy dose of the ground game in Cleveland.

With a big advantage in the turnover battle as well, the Seahawks will undoubtedly make it a goal to dominate the pace of this game. Seattle is +3 in turnovers, while Cleveland is -3 in 2019. Mayfield has already thrown eight interceptions this year, and if Seattle can add to that total while making this the kind of physical, grind-it-out game that they want, the under is the way to go.

The Pick: Under 47 (-114)

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