- The Seattle Seahawks clash with the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday Night Football (8:20 PM ET, Dec. 8)
- The game is a pick’em, but the Rams are drawing 66% of the money
- These two teams have averaged 63.3 points per game over their last three meetings – read below for our betting prediction
The stakes are high on Sunday Night Football (8:20pm ET, Dec. 8) as the 10-2 Seattle Seahawks visit the 7-5 Los Angeles Rams. The Seahawks enter Week 14 atop the NFC West and in contention for a first round bye, while the Rams begin Sunday a game behind the Vikings for the final NFC Wild Card spot.
Seahawks vs Rams Odds & Betting Handle
|Seattle Seahawks||PK (-105)||34.0%|
|Los Angeles Rams||PK (-115)||66.0%|
All odds taken Dec. 8
LA opened as a short home underdog, but the line has since moved in its favor and now sits at a pick’em. Oddsmakers are reporting that 66% of the betting handle is on the Rams, but 70% of the tickets are backing the Seahawks. There is no divide among the pros however, as 84% of the sharp money has been wagered on LA.
These two teams both rank top-10 in point differential, and have a history of playing high scoring, close games against each other.
A History of Firepower
For whatever reason, the Seahawks and Rams bring the best out of each other’s offenses. Over the past two seasons, the rivals have clashed three times and each matchup has produced a total of 59 or higher. Each of the three meetings has been decided by one score and the average margin of victory is just 2.66 points. No wonder the game is a pick’em.
— SNF on NBC (@SNFonNBC) December 6, 2019
Jared Goff has thrown for at least 318 yards in each of those contests, while Russell Wilson has produced 10 touchdown passes. Wilson owns a sparkling 25-5-1 record in primetime, which includes wins this season over LA, San Francisco and Minnesota. Seattle is 6-0 on the road this season, with only one of those games decided by more than 8 points. Their offense has been humming all season, but the defense is full of holes that the Rams can take advantage of.
No Pressure, No Problem
The one glaring weakness of the Seahawks’ defense is their pass rush. Seattle generates pressure at the sixth lowest rate in the league, and have recorded the fourth fewest sacks. That’s great news for Goff, who has some of the most severe splits when facing pressure compared to a clean pocket.
— Omar Ruiz (@OmarDRuiz) December 5, 2019
He has a 72.9% completion percentage when facing no pressure, but just a 42.2% rate with heat in his face. His Pro Football Focus grade dips from 83.3 to 50.7 when he’s under siege, and he has just four touchdown passes in 178 drop backs under pressure. Two of his eight highest passing grades over the last two seasons have come against the Seahawks, and Seattle is allowing the 10th most points in the league.
Also working in the Rams favor is the resurgence of Todd Gurley. The All-Pro running back has seen 20 or more touches in two of his last three games and historically owns the Seahawks. He’s scored nine touchdowns in his last four games versus Seattle, and has averaged over 100 yards from scrimmage per game during that stretch.
Side with the Sharps
It’s always a good idea to follow the sharp money, especially in this case where there appears to be an overwhelming consensus. It’s hard to argue when 84% of the pros are backing one side, especially when that team’s opponent is due for some negative regression. Seattle is 8-1 in one score games this season, and there’s no way that’s sustainable. Expect that trend to regress back to the mean starting on Sunday Night.