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Seahawks vs Eagles Props: It’s All on Wentz’s Shoulders

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Jan 4, 2020 · 7:00 AM PST

Philadelphia Eagles pre snap
The Philadelphia Eagles host the Seattle Seahawks in the final Wild Card game on this weekend's NFL playoff slate. Photo by All-Pro Reels (Flickr).
  • The Seattle Seahawks and Philadelphia Eagles clash in the NFC Wild Card Playoffs Sunday (Jan. 5, 4:40pm ET)
  • Philadelphia has been decimated by injuries to their skill position players
  • Despite the rash of injuries, Carson Wentz has averaged 301.8 passing yards in his last five outings

The Seattle Seahawks and Philadelphia Eagles clash on Sunday (Jan. 5, 4:40pm ET) in the final Wild Card game on this weekend’s NFL playoff slate. Both teams have been hit hard by injuries, especially the Eagles who will play this game without their number one, two and three receivers, and likely without their number one tight end.

The rash of injuries to Philly’s pass catching corps has not slowed down Carson Wentz, who put up big numbers down the stretch to lead the Eagles to a division title. Wentz’ passing prop for the Wild Card game looks very juicy, and doesn’t appear to take into account his soft matchup or the major increase in his passing volume.

Prop #1: Carson Wentz Over/Under 260.5 Passing Yards

Passing Yards Odds
Over 260.5 -113
Under 260.5 -113

All odds taken Jan. 3.

Wentz has thrown the ball at least 40 times in seven straight games and has eclipsed 265 passing yards in five straight. A matchup versus Seattle is by no means daunting, as the Seahawks have allowed 269 or more passing yards in four of their last five.

Seattle ranks middle of the pack in coverage grade according to Pro Football Focus, but they generate pressure at one of lowest rates in the league. They rank 30th in pressure rate and the extra time and clean pocket only heightens Wentz’s outlook.

Carson Wentz Last Five Games

Week Opponent Completions Attempts Passing Yards Touchdowns
17 NYG 23 40 289 1
16 DAL 31 40 319 1
15 WSH 30 43 266 3
14 NYG 33 50 325 2
13 MIA 28 46 310 3

He’s completing 70% of his passes this season when not pressured, and has a sparkling 83.7 PFF grade. Featured running back Miles Sanders is also banged up, and with Seattle favored by 1.5-points, it all adds up to a pass centric game script for Wentz and the Eagles.

Pick: Wentz Over 260.5 passing yards (-113)

Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units

Prop #2: Travis Homer Over/Under 23.5 Receiving Yards

Receiving Yards Odds
Over 23.5 -113
Under 23.5 -113

Raise your hand if you’d heard of Travis Homer prior to last week. The sixth round pick in last year’s NFL Draft was primarily a special teams contributor up until Week 16, when he was thrust into action thanks to injuries to Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny and C.J. Prosise.

One of the most athletic running backs in last year’s class, Homer has been impressive over the last two weeks and has earned high praise from head coach Pete Carroll. He’s caught 11 of 13 targets during that stretch, and last week he out-touched Marshawn Lynch 15 to 12.

The Eagles are far superior against the run than versus the pass, and Homer should dominate the backfield targets. Last week versus San Francisco, he hauled in all five of the running back targets, and with Lynch and recently signed Robert Turbin effectively zeroes in the passing game, Homer’s volume should be locked in. Over the course of the regular season, Russell Wilson targeted his running backs an average of 5.7 times per game, and even if Homer only gets 80% of those looks he should easily exceed 23.5 yards.

Pick: Homer Over 23.5 receiving yards (-113)

Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units

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