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Sharp Bettors Love the Bengals Over Jaguars as 4-Point Home Dogs in Week 7

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in NFL Football

Updated Apr 13, 2020 · 10:25 AM PDT

Cincinnati Bengals fans cheering
Can the Cincinnati Bengals win or cover against the Jacksonville Jaguars this week? Photo By Chris Breeze (Flickr)
  • 76.3% of the ATS bets are on the Jacksonville Jaguars this week
  • 16% of all of this week’s sharp money is on the Cincinnati Bengals
  • The Bengals will be without several offensive linemen and four starters on their defense

The Cincinnati Bengals visit the Jacksonville Jaguars this week in a Pros vs Joes setup. According to the sharps love the Bengals while the public loves the Jags. Are the Bengals in good shape here to finally get their first win of the year – or at least cover?

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Jacksonville Jaguars -4 (-105) -200 Over 43.5 (-110)
Cincinnati Bengals +4 (-115) +170 Under 43.5  (-110)

*Odds taken 10/19/19

Sharps on Bengals, Squares on Jaguars

Dive deeper into the numbers, the Jags are seeing 76.3% of the bets ATS and 64.3% of the money. However, that’s mostly bets from squares. In terms of the sharp money, 16% of all of their sharp action this week is on the Bengals. The next-closest side that the sharps like is the Washington Redskins, which accounts for 9.8% of the sharp action.

The Jaguars vs Bengals odds actually opened at Jags -4.5 and dipped as low as -3, but we’re now sitting at -4. Of course, sharp money on one side doesn’t guarantee that the side wins or even covers. However, it is a good indication of value as the pros clearly believe the Bengals are the play here.

Bengals Have Been Competitive

Although the Bengals are 0-6 and there’s no real way around that, it’s worth noting that they have been competitive in many of their games. Many people will remember them getting blown out in primetime by the Mason Rudolph-led Pittsburgh Steelers but that was mostly a one-off.

The Bengals nearly won in Seattle in Week 1, pushed the Buffalo Bills to their limit in Week 3 (also on the road), lost at home by three to Arizona and kept it close in Baltimore last week. They’re 0-6 but they’ve at least been competitive against good teams this year. This isn’t a Miami or Washington situation.

How Good Are the Jaguars?

If you didn’t know the records, you’d probably think that the Jaguars are significantly better than the Bengals but that’s not true. They’re 2-4 and while they’ve been close in a number of games, the Jaguars simply aren’t very good. Their wins have come against Denver and Tennessee, who are also two-win teams.

Last week, we saw Gardner Minshew II post his worst game as a pro, throwing for just 163 yards at home against the Saints while completing just 48.3% of his passes with no touchdowns and a pick. A lot of his traditional stats look great – nine touchdowns, two interceptions – but the analytics are not as strong. His QBR ranks him 20th.

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There’s no question that Minshew II has given this team a shot in the arm and he might be their future franchise quarterback. However, the rest of the team isn’t great. Their defense has allowed the eighth-most yards this season and ranks 25th in the NFL in rush defense. They’ve coughed up 389 rushing yards in the last two weeks.

On top of that, they just traded away cornerback Jalen Ramsey. While he hasn’t played in the last few games since demanding a trade, shipping him off for future draft picks does signal that this team is waving the white flag on the season a little bit.

What’s the Best Bet?

It’s important to note here that the Bengals have a ton of injuries. Cordy Glenn, Andre Smith and John Miller are out, which removes key Bengals’ offensive linemen from the mix. On defense, Carlos Dunlap, Carl Lawson, William Jackson III and Dre Kirkpatrick are out. That’s four starters missing from their defense.

It’s hard to bet the Bengals here but laying four with the Jaguars on the road doesn’t make a ton of sense to me. They haven’t proved that they deserve to be laying these types of numbers away from home. I actually like the “Under” in this game but if I had to play a side, I’d slightly lean with the Bengals.

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