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Spread in Titans vs Ravens Reached BAL -10, Now Down to 9.5; Who Should You Bet?

Lamar Jackson running with football
Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens are 9.5-point favorites over the Tennessee Titans in their AFC Divisional Round playoff game. Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire.
  • The Baltimore Ravens are 9.5-point favorites over the Tennessee Titans in Saturday’s AFC Division Round playoff game
  • The line opened at Baltimore -9.5, went as high as Ravens -10 and as low as Titans +9
  • At one sportsbook, 76 percent of the handle and 84 percent of sharp money is backing Baltimore

The Baltimore Ravens are the best team in the NFL, as their 14-2 regular-season records indicates. If the Tennessee Titans require any more evidence of how tough a task they face in their AFC Divisional Round playoff game against the Ravens, they only need look to the Ravens for evidence.

The Titans are the first team to beat the New England Patriots in the Wild Card round since the 2009 Ravens dumped the Pats 33-14 in 2009.

The following week, Baltimore faced the top-seeded Indianapolis Colts in the Divisional Round and were crushed 20-3.

Those Ravens were 6.5-point underdogs to the 14-2 Colts. These Titans are 9.5-point underdogs to Baltimore.

Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Tennessee Titans +334 +9.5 (-105) Over 47.0 (-110)
Baltimore Ravens -425 -9.5 (-115) Under 47.0 (-110)

Odds taken Jan. 9th.

Tennessee is 6-3 both straight up and against the spread on the road this season.

Public, Sharps Both Like Ravens

In terms of public wagering, Baltimore gets the nod in both overall wager count (65 percent) and handle (76 percent).

The sharps are backing Baltimore at an 84-percent rate.

The Ravens are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. But Baltimore was just 4-4 ATS at home during the regular season.

Tennessee’s last four games have all been against 2019 NFL playoff teams. The Titans are 2-2 both SU and ATS in those games. They’ve won the last two, and both were on the road.

Home Cooking Not All That Tasty

Home teams are 0-3 in previous playoff meetings between Baltimore and Tennessee. Favorites are 1-1-1 in the three games.

In a Jan. 7th, 2001 meeting, the Titans were the six-point favorites at home but the Ravens were 24-10 winners. A Jan. 10th, 2009 clash, also at Tennessee, saw Baltimore win 13-10 as three-point underdogs.

The Titans were the one-point chalk at Baltimore in a Jan. 3, 2004 AFC Wild Card game and won and covered 20-17.

Totally Underwhelming

The total on this game is established at 47 points, and the under is getting all the action.

Public bettors are leaning ever so slightly toward a low-scoring game, betting both 51 percent of the handle and all wagers on the under.

Sharps are much more solidly behind the under. They’ve placed 83 percent of their money on that being the winning wager.

Tennessee is 10-7 on the over/under this season, while Baltimore is 9-7. The Ravens are 4-4 at home, and the Titans are 5-4 on the road.

Henry’s Run of Success

Ryan Tannehill, who is 7-3 since replacing Marcus Mariota as Tennessee’s starting quarterback, gets much of the credit for the Titans being a playoff team. But they’d be nowhere if it wasn’t for running back Derrick Henry.

Henry led the NFL with 1,540 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground this season. He kept it going in the Wild Card round against the Patriots, rumbling for 184 yards and a TD. He’s run for 1,087 yards in his last seven games.

The Ravens can also move the ball on the ground. They led the NFL in rushing, averaging 206 yards per game. Lamar Jackson set an NFL record for rushing by a QB, going off for 1,206 yards, eighth overall in the league.

Mark Ingram, like Henry a Heisman Trophy winner at Alabama, gained 1,018 yards and scored 10 TDs. But his status is uncertain due to a calf injury. If he can’t go, Gus Edwards, who ran for 130 yards in the season-ender against Pittsburgh, will be the guy.

This is just the fourth time in NFL history that the league’s #1 rusher has faced the NFL’s #1 rushing team in postseason player. The individual is 3-0 against the team.

Titans Are the Bet . . . But

If Tennessee can get a jump on the rusty Ravens, and Henry does his usual damage, this one gets interesting.

In both of Baltimore’s losses this season, Jackson was forced to throw more than 30 times. He’s unbeaten when throwing under 30 times.

The Titans will keep it close, so take the points and play Tennessee. But Baltimore still gets the nod to win.

Pick: Tennessee +9.5 (-105).

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