Stafford vs Maye MVP Odds & Picks

• Matthew Stafford is a -750 favorite to win 2025 NFL MVP, with Drake Maye at +600
• Stafford led the NFL in passing yards (4,707) and touchdowns (46) this season
• Check out the full MVP odds, stats breakdown, and our betting picks below

The 2025 NFL MVP award gets handed out Thursday night at NFL Honors. Unless something wild happens behind the scenes, Matthew Stafford is taking home his first career MVP.

What looked like a coin flip a few weeks ago has completely blown open. Stafford sits at -750 in the NFL MVP odds, while Drake Maye has drifted to +600. Over on Kalshi, the prediction market has Stafford trading at 91 cents on the dollar with more than $29 million in total volume behind it.

2025 NFL MVP Odds: Stafford vs Maye

You can track the live odds movement in the Kalshi graph above. Stafford has been climbing steadily since the All-Pro announcement, while Maye continues to slide.

This wasn’t always so lopsided. Going into Week 18, Maye was actually the favorite at -295 after dropping five touchdowns on the Jets in Week 17. Stafford answered with a four-TD game against Arizona and took the lead back at -165. Then the All-Pro votes came in, and it was a wrap. Stafford won First Team All-Pro by 13 first-place votes, and the odds blew open from there.

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Odds as of February 5. Kalshi market volume: $29.16 million. Claim a Kalshi referral code to place a trade.

Stafford vs Maye: 2025 MVP Stats Comparison

Put those numbers next to each other, and it’s easy to see why this race stayed close for as long as it did. Maye led the league in passer rating, completion percentage, QBR, and yards per attempt. He tacked on 450 rushing yards and four scores on the ground too, compared to Stafford’s one total rushing yard on the season. One. Maye was the more efficient quarterback by just about every measure.

But Stafford’s counting stats are on another level. He led the NFL in passing yards, passing touchdowns, total touchdowns, and TD-to-INT ratio (5.8). Only seven quarterbacks in NFL history have thrown for 4,500-plus yards and 45-plus touchdowns in a single season. Six of them won MVP. The only exception was Drew Brees in 2011, and that’s because Aaron Rodgers also hit those marks in the same year.

Stafford also ripped off 28 consecutive touchdown passes without an interception during the middle of the season. That’s the longest streak since play-by-play tracking began in 1978. And at 37 years old, his 46 passing touchdowns are the second-most ever by a QB that age or older, trailing only Peyton Manning’s 55 in 2013.

The narrative works in Stafford’s favor too. He’s 37 years old, 17 years into his career, and has never won the award. Voters tend to reward that kind of long-overdue recognition, especially when the stats back it up. Tom Brady even said on a broadcast that Maye will have more opportunities ahead, but you have to hand it to the veteran. That kind of talk carries weight with a voting body that loves a career-capping moment.

Can Drake Maye Still Win NFL MVP?

Give Maye credit. He led New England to a 14-3 record and an AFC East title after the franchise went 4-13 a year ago. His completion percentage over expected was the best single-season mark in NFL Next Gen Stats history dating to 2016. If you’re going strictly by “most valuable to his team,” Maye has Stafford beat. The Patriots are a bottom-five roster without him.

But the All-Pro vote already told us where voters lean. Stafford took First Team honors by 13 first-place votes, and there’s massive overlap between the All-Pro and MVP voter pools. Winning MVP without First Team All-Pro is almost unheard of for a quarterback. Josh Allen pulled it off last year, and Steve McNair did it back in 2003, but those are the exceptions, not the rule.

Schedule strength also works against Maye. The Patriots benefited from a softer slate, and even though QBR adjusts for opponent quality, that narrative sticks with voters.

NFL MVP Prediction: Any Betting Value on Maye at +600?

At +600, you’re getting implied odds of about 14% in what is still a two-man race. That’s not a terrible number for a guy who topped the league in QBR and completion percentage. If you believe voters went a different direction than the All-Pro ballots, there’s a scenario where Maye pulls the upset.

But the Kalshi market at 91% for Stafford with $29 million in total volume says the smart money isn’t buying it. That 13 first-place vote margin in All-Pro voting is too wide, and 15 more touchdowns is 15 more touchdowns. You can spin efficiency numbers all day, but voters love counting stats and a good legacy moment.

The betting value is long gone in the NFL odds and prediction markets, but the pick is clear. Stafford is winning his first MVP on Thursday night