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Steelers vs Browns Week 11 Thursday Night Football Props: Landry in Line For Big Game

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Updated Mar 25, 2020 · 12:24 PM PDT

Cleveland Browns fans in the crowd
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns clash on Thursday Night Football in Week 11. Photo by David Freeman (Flickr).
  • Week 11 kicks off with the Steelers versus the Browns on Thursday Night Football (Nov. 14)
  • Our TNF props were 3-0 last week for +3.17 units (+3.47 units for the season)
  • Jarvis Landry has been targeted 33 times over the last three games

Our Thursday Night Football props were hot fire in Week 10, and we’re looking to carry that momentum into Cleveland for the Steelers vs Browns tilt to kickoff Week 11.

Pittsburgh enters the game as a small underdog, despite having covered in six of their last seven outings. Much of their recent success is thanks to a defense that has produced 26 turnovers this season, but they’ll have their hands full trying to contain Jarvis Landry in the slot.

Prop #1: Jarvis Landry Over/Under 4.5 Receptions

Receptions Odds
Over 4.5 -120
Under 4.5 -120

All odds taken Nov. 13.

Landry has seen at least six targets in all but one game this season, and has target counts of 10, 13 and 10 over the last three weeks. He’s converted those opportunities into 20 catches and his short-to-intermediate route tree should yield plenty of targets in Week 11 given the amount of pressure Baker Mayfield will likely face.

The Steelers defense generates the most pressure in the NFL, and the Browns offensive line is a bottom-11 pass blocking unit according to Pro Football Focus. Expect Mayfield to look for his favorite safety valve early and often.

Pick: Landry over 4.5 Receptions (-120)

Risk: 1 unit to win 0.83 units

Prop #2: James Washington Over/Under 2.5 Receptions

Receptions Odds
Over 2.5 +100
Under 2.5 -140

It took a while, but the James Washington and Mason Rudolph connection that flourished at Oklahoma State is now making an impact at the NFL level. The duo hooked up for 74 receptions and 1,549 yards in their final season together in college, and Washington has emerged as Rudolph’s favorite target over the last two weeks.

Washington has caught 10 passes in Pittsburgh’s last two games, and has has three or more receptions in three of his past four outings. The Browns are a bottom-9 coverage unit and given that the Steelers are expected to be trailing in this game, we can project more than enough volume for Washington to exceed 2.5 catches.

Pick: Washington over 2.5 Receptions (+100)

Risk: 1 unit to win 1 unit

Prop #3: James Conner Touchdowns (At Least)

 Touchdowns (At Least) Odds
1 +120

James Conner’s return will be a welcome sight to Steelers fans who witnessed back-to-back weeks of dismal rushing performances in his absence. Prior to his injury, Conner had scored six touchdowns in his previous six games, and now gets a matchup with a Browns defense that has struggled versus running backs.

Cleveland is surrendering 4.9 yards per carry and five receptions per game to opposing running backs . Given the lack of quality options behind him, Conner should assume a bell cow role which will likely lead to plenty of opportunities to get in the box.

Pick: Conner At Least 1 Touchdown (+120)

Risk: 1 unit to win 1.2 units

 

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