Steelers vs Jets Picks, Predictions & Props to Target

• The Pittsburgh Steelers are 3-point road favorites over the New York Jets in Week 1
• QB’s Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields will each square off against their former teams
• Keep reading for my Steelers vs Jets Picks, Predictions and Props to Target

The Aaron Rodgers era in Pittsburgh begins Sunday when his Steeler face his most-recent team, the New York Jets. Rodgers’ play has fallen off a cliff over the last few years, but that isn’t stopping online sportsbooks from siding with the Steelers in the latest NFL betting odds.

Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 pm ET at MetLife Stadium, in East Rutherford, NJ, with CBS providing the broadcast coverage.

PIT Steelers vs NY Jets Odds

Pittsburgh is currently favored by 3-points, and -155 on the moneyline. New York comes back as a +130 underdog, while the total sits at 38.5. I’m of the belief that the over/under is too high given the state of both of these offenses, and I’m not alone. According to the NFL public betting percentages, 70% of the tickets are backing the under, as is 62% of the money.

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Steelers vs Jets Picks & Predictions

• Under 38.5 (-110 at BetMGM

Rodgers may be in a new situation, but it’s impossible to shake what we saw last year. Simply put, he looks like a 41-year-old man who doesn’t want to get hit. As someone the same age, I can certainly relate.

His decline started in his final season in Green Bay and has only gotten worse. Over the last three years, Rodgers is 31st in success rate, 33rd in expected points added plus completion percentage over expectation, and 41st in air yards. He finished 25th in QBR in 2024, and averaged career-lows in yards per throw and yards per dropback.

You might hear some argue he actually played well during the second half of last season, but let me tell you that’s fool’s gold. The bulk of that production was in garbage time. Rodgers ranked last among qualified QB’s in EPA per dropback last season in the first 3 quarters of games.

Aaron Rodgers 2024 Stats

I don’t expect much to change in 2025, given the personnel in Pittsburgh. The Steelers lack a true number one running back, and DK Metcalf is the antithesis of the kind of receiver Rodgers likes. Metcalf is a one-trick pony that excels on vertical routes, while Rodgers loves versatile receivers who can win quickly off the ball, and dominate the middle of the field.

As for the matchup, it’s not great for Rodgers’ ceiling. The Jets are going to take on the identity of their head coach Aaron Glenn, and blitz Rodgers relentlessly. The 41-year-old was one of the worst QB’s last season versus the blitz, and I can see him getting rid of the ball quicker than he should to avoid contact.

New York also features a true lockdown corner in Sauce Gardner, who should be able to take Metcalf completely out of the equation.

The Jets offense meanwhile, is going to be bad yet again. Former Steelers QB Justin Fields is under center, and is prone to taking far too many sacks. That’s a huge issue versus T.J. Watt and Co, who grade out as one of the best defensive fronts per Pro Football Focus. To make matters worse, Fields has the fourth worst success rate on throws of at least 8 air yards since entering the league, and is 12-29 in 41 career starts.

With New York’s passing attack stuck in mud, expect Fields to use his legs often, while leaning on his RB’s Breece Hall and Braylon Allen.

The bad quarterback play, combined with the strong defenses of both teams scream a low total game. Both defenses will also be very familiar with the opposing quarterback from practice last year, which also helps the under.

I’m making my Steelers vs Jets pick under 38.5, something that the trends support. Pittsburgh has seen each of its last six season openers fall under the total, while the under is 58-31-1 in road games for Mike Tomlin led teams since 2014.

Steelers vs Jets Props to Target

• Justin Fields Under 173.5 Passing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Another reason I’m looking to fade success for Fields in the Steelers vs Jets NFL props is due to his offensive line. The Jets just lost their best offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker to IR, while starting rookie right tackle Armand Membou was a train wreck in the preseason. Fields isn’t going to have any time to throw versus the Steelers vaunted front, making it unlikely he produces a big day with his arm.

Fields has failed to exceed 173.5 passing yards in seven of his last 10 starts dating back to 2023, and has been sacked 28 times during that span.