Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals Picks, Predictions & Odds (Week 7)

• Losers of four straight, the Cincinnati Bengals host the Pittsburgh Steelers on TNF in Week 7
• Joe Flacco makes his second start for the Bengals against a Pittsburgh team that’s won three in a row
• Below, find my Steelers vs Bengals picks and predictions, plus player props to target and the latest TNF odds

A classic AFC North rivalry is renewed in Week 7 as Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 O/U) visit the Cincinnati Bengals (2-4, 2-4 ATS, 4-2 O/U) at Paycor Stadium on Thursday Night Football. With the rest of the division in shambles, the Steelers have a chance to stretch their lead to 3.5 games

Can Cincinnati protect its home turf and pull off an upset, or will Pittsburgh continue their recent dominance in this head-to-head series? This betting preview will dive into the stats, trends, and key matchups to find the best value. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:15 pm ET on October 16.

Steelers vs Bengals ATS Pick: PIT -4.5

The betting trends for this AFC North clash paint a stark picture, with one team trending up and the other in a significant slump. Pittsburgh enters this matchup with a 4-1 record, while Cincinnati is reeling from four consecutive losses. When dissecting the situational data, the path to our best bets becomes clear.

The Steelers have not just been winning games; they’ve been covering against the Bengals with remarkable consistency. This historical dominance, combined with Cincinnati’s current struggles, forms the foundation of our primary prediction.

Key Betting Trends

The Bengals have not only lost their last nine games outright as an underdog, but they are also just 1-4 against the spread in their last five opportunities in that role. Conversely, Pittsburgh is 4-1 over their last five games and has covered in four straight against Cincinnati. While the Steelers have struggled to cover on the road recently (1-4 ATS in their last five), the sheer volume of trends pointing against the Bengals is too overwhelming to ignore.

Steelers vs Bengals O/U Pick: Over 43.5

The trends for the game total are even more one-sided. Both teams have been consistently involved in high-scoring affairs under specific conditions that apply to this matchup.

• The over has hit in 10 of the Bengals’ last 11 games against opponents with a winning record
• The over has cashed in 8 of Cincinnati’s last 9 home games
• The over is a perfect 8-0 in the Bengals’ last eight home games against winning teams
• For Pittsburgh, the over has hit in each of their last four road games against teams with a losing record

With both offenses possessing red-zone efficiency ratings above 71% and a deluge of trends pointing towards points, the over presents strong value.

Best PIT vs CIN Player Prop: Ja’Marr Chase Over 73.5 Receiving Yards

The Bengals are averaging only 16.8 points per game, but they will likely be playing from behind in this one, forcing a pass-heavy game script. With key tight ends Mike Gesicki and Tanner Hudson battling injuries, Chase’s target share is set to be massive. He is the undisputed top option in the passing attack, and volume alone should carry him over this number against a Steelers defense that will be focused on stopping the run first.

Same-Game Parlay Suggestion:

• Steelers Moneyline + Over 43.5 + \Ja’Marr Chase 60+ Receiving Yards (+275 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Key Betting Trends Supporting Picks

Several trends strongly favor the visitors and the over.

• Pittsburgh is a perfect 4-0 against the spread in their last four games versus Cincinnati
• The Bengals have lost their last nine consecutive games when positioned as an underdog
• Cincinnati is just 1-4 against the spread in its last five games as an underdog
• The over has hit in 10 of the Bengals’ last 11 games against opponents with a winning record
• The over is a perfect 8-0 in Cincinnati’s last eight home games against opponents with a winning record
• The over has cashed in Pittsburgh’s last four road games against teams with a losing record
• The Steelers are 4-1 straight up as a favorite over their last five games

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals Odds for TNF

As of Wednesday night, the Steelers were -240 moneyline favorites at FanDuel (and slightly shorter elsewhere). The Bengals were as long as +220 at DraftKings. The point spread was Pittsburgh -5.5 across the board with only very minor variations in price.

The game total ranged from 44.0 to 44.5. Over bettors can find the best price at BetMGM (O 44.0 at -110). Under bettors can find the best price at bet365 (U 44.5 at -110).

Steelers vs Bengals Public Betting Analysis: Sharp Money Indicators

The NFL public betting splits show the most significant action is on the moneyline. Here is a breakdown of where the handle (total money wagered) is going for each key market:

• Moneyline: A staggering 87.67% of the handle is on Pittsburgh, leaving just 12.33% backing Cincinnati at home
• Spread: The action against the spread is nearly an even split, with 50.32% of the money on the Bengals and 49.68% on the Steelers
• Total: A slight majority of the handle (56.6%) is on the under, compared to 43.4% on the Over

The moneyline betting presents a classic “sharps vs. public” scenario. While the public’s money (12.33%) is taking a chance on the Bengals, the overwhelming majority of the handle from professional bettors is backing the Steelers to win outright.

This flood of sharp money on Pittsburgh’s moneyline strongly supports our primary prediction for the Steelers to cover the spread. Interestingly, our pick for the Over 43.5 goes against the slight lean of the handle, which favors the Under. However, the most telling indicator from the betting markets is the professional conviction behind a Steelers victory.

Steelers vs Bengals Injury Report: Key Players to Monitor

Steelers vs Bengals Key Statistical Metrics

A deep dive into the season statistics reveals clear advantages for the Steelers. Pittsburgh has established a more productive and disciplined identity, while Cincinnati has struggled to find consistency, particularly on offense.

Here’s how the two AFC North rivals stack up against each other in key statistical categories:

Pittsburgh’s offense is putting up a respectable 23.4 points per game and has a significant edge in generating a pass rush, averaging 3.3 sacks per contest. This disruptive defensive front could be a nightmare for a Bengals offense that has scored just 101 points all season.

One of the most telling disparities lies in ball security. The Steelers have been remarkably disciplined, committing only three turnovers this season. Conversely, the Bengals have turned the ball over 11 times. That turnover battle will be a critical factor and heavily favors Pittsburgh. While Cincinnati has been slightly more efficient in the red zone (76.9% to 71.4%), their inability to move the ball consistently (235.2 yards per game) and avoid mistakes may prevent them from reaching that area of the field often enough.

This statistical mismatch supports a game script where Joe Flacco and the Bengals are forced to play from behind. That should mean a heavy dose of targets for star wideout Ja’Marr Chase, making his receiving yards prop (over 73.5) a compelling play. For Pittsburgh, the efficiency of Rodgers, who has a passing yards line set at 217.5, should be enough to capitalize on Cincinnati’s struggles and control the game.

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