- The Buffalo Bills begin a 2021 season of Super Bowl aspirations by hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers (1pm ET, Sunday, Sept. 12)
- The Steelers try revive an offense that crashed and burned late in 2020, while Josh Allen will make his first argument for what could be an MVP season
- See the odds, spread, analysis, and best prop bets below
Bills Mafia will be in a table shattering frenzy this Sunday, as they get to see their Super Bowl hopeful team host another AFC contender, when the Pittsburgh Steelers visit Buffalo’s Highmark Stadium.
Both playoff teams from a year ago, the Steelers ended the 2020 season in a tailspin, losing five of their last six games, including a 26-15 loss to these very Bills in Week 14. That’s partly why the spread has Buffalo favored by 6.5 points.
There’s also a lot of hype around Western New York, as the Bills look to take the next step following an AFC Title Game appearance last winter. Led by fourth-year QB Josh Allen, this Buffalo offense will be a test for loaded Pittsburgh defense that figures to be one of the top units in the league.
Which strength will win out on Sunday? Let’s explore those matchups by looking at some player props.
Steelers vs Bills Player Props
|Passer||Completions||Passing Yards||Passing TDs|
|Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers)||24.5 (Ov -135 / Un +100)||265.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||1.5 (Ov -150 / Un +115)|
|Josh Allen (Bills)||24.5 (Ov -105 / Un -125)||284.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||2.5 (Ov +145 / Un -200)|
|Rusher||Rushing Attempts||Rushing Yards||Total Yards|
|Najee Harris (Steelers)||14.5 (Ov -130 / Un -105)||59.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120)||84.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)|
|Devin Singletary (Bills)||8.5 (Ov +100 / Un -135)||32.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||50.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120)|
|Zach Moss (Bills)||7.5 (Ov -125 / Un -110)||29.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120)||38.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)|
|Josh Allen (Bills)||NA||28.5 ( Ov -120 / Un -110)||NA|
|Receiver||Receptions||Receiving Yards||Longest Reception|
|Diontae Johnson (Steelers)||5.5 (Ov +105 / Un -140)||57.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||21.5 (Ov -105 / Un -125)|
|Juju Smith-Schuster (Steelers)||5.5 (Ov +120 / Un -160)||52.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||19.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)|
|Chase Claypool (Steelers)||4.5 (Ov +115 / Un -155)||48.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)||20.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)|
|Eric Ebron (Steelers)||3.5 (Ov +125 / Un -165)||31.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||15.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)|
|Stefon Diggs (Bills)||7.5 (Ov +115 / Un -155)||90.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||26.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)|
|Cole Beasley (Bills)||4.5 (Ov +105 / Un -155)||49.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||20.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)|
|Emmanuel Sanders (Bills)||2.5 (Ov -180 / Un +145)||32.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||16.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)|
|Dawson Knox (Bills)||2.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120)||24.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||13.5 (Ov -125 / Un -105)|
Odds taken Sept. 11 from DraftKings
Stefon Diggs’ first year in Buffalo was everything Bills fans could’ve hoped for and more when they shipped a first rounder to Minnesota for the disgruntled wide receiver. He led the league in receiving and had an immediate connection with Allen, drawing double digit targets in over half his games.
Stefon Diggs Reception Prop over was 14-1 (!!) during the 2020 regular seasonpic.twitter.com/J14k3qNgEu
— Bets Trends (@betstrends) September 7, 2021
All the talk of the Steelers great defense begins with their front seven, because behind them … it’s actually pretty rough. They have a ton of questions at corner behind Joe Haden, who himself is 32 and has trouble keeping up with the top talents in the game.
Pittsburgh allowed Diggs to rack up 10 catches, 130 yards and a TD last year — and that was with a better situation in the secondary than they have now.
Steelers Defense… what’s your level of concern? pic.twitter.com/tEHZYxvif0
— The Air Raid Hour (@TheBillsGuys) September 4, 2021
The Bills have a new weapon in Emmanuel Sanders and they’ll look to get Gabriel Davis more involved this year, but I still think Diggs is going to get plenty of work. I like all of his overs here against a suspect Steeler secondary, but particularly the extra juice on receptions.
The Pick: Diggs Over 7.5 Receptions (1 unit to win 1.15 units)
Steelers vs Bills Scoring Props
|Player||First Touchdown Scorer||Anytime Touchdown Scorer|
|Stefon Diggs (Bills)||+750||+100|
|Najee Harris (Steelers)||+850||+120|
Josh Allen (Bills)
|Zach Moss (Bills)||+1200||+180|
|Cole Beasley (Bills)||+1200||+180|
|Chase Claypool (Steelers)||+1200||+190|
|JuJu Smith-Schuster (Steelers)||+1400||+210|
|Diontae Johnson (Steelers)||+1400||+190|
|Gabriel Davis (Bills)||+1500||+225|
|Dawson Knox (Bills)||+1500||+225|
|Emmanuel Sanders (Bills)||+1500||+225|
Who Finds the Endzone?
There hasn’t been a ton of offensive TDs in the last two meetings between these teams: the Bills have scored four while Pittsburgh has three. While I’m not expecting offensive fireworks this weekend either, I think there’s a pretty reliable redzone option to play here.
If you wondered why neither Devin Singletary or Zach Moss went particularly high in fantasy drafts this fall, you’ll surely get a reminder this weekend: when it comes to red zone carries, Allen is the guy who most often gets short TDs in this Bills offense. His 49 carries in the red zone last year were more than Moss (28) and Singletary (20) combined.
2 passing. 2 rushing.
Josh Allen's FOURTH TD of the day! @JoshAllenQB
— NFL (@NFL) December 19, 2020
Allen has 23 rushing TDs in three years and has never finished with less than eight in a season. He’s always a good bet to find the endzone, so we’ll wager that it happens to kick off his fourth year as well.
Pick: Josh Allen – Anytime Touchdown Scorer (1 unit to win 1.25 units)