Steelers vs Bills Odds, Betting Lines, and Picks for Week 1 of NFL Season
- The Buffalo Bills are 6.5-point home favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers in their Sunday, September 12 NFL game
- Buffalo was 5-2 against the spread as a home favorite during the 2020 NFL season
- Pittsburgh finished last season 1-5 straight up after opening the campaign 11-0 – see below for our betting prediction
Last season, a lot of football experts thought that the Pittsburgh Steelers were going to the Super Bowl. This season, plenty of football experts are projecting the Buffalo Bills as a Super Bowl team.
Both the Steelers (AFC North) and Bills (AFC East) were division winners last season. They will meet in Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season. It’s the only opening-week NFL matchup featuring two reigning AFC divisional champions.
The Bills beat the Steelers 26-15 last season in Buffalo. Oddsmakers have set Buffalo as a 6.5-point favorite over Pittsburgh in this game. Buffalo and the Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers each won an NFL-high 12 games against the spread last season.
Steelers vs Bills Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +220 | +6.5 (-113) | O 48.5 (-104) |
| Buffalo Bills | -270 | -6.5 (-106) | U 48.5 (-118) |
Odds as of September 10th at FanDuel
Kickoff for Sunday’s game at Highmark Stadium is 1pm ET. Clouds, 12 mph wind and a game-time temperature of 76 degrees is the projected forecast.
Line Movement
The point spread on this game opened at Buffalo -6.5 and has stayed there. The total has dipped slightly from its opening 49-point placement. Meanwhile, the moneyline has also been moving. Buffalo opened at -320, while the Steelers were +250.
Diggs and Allen going at it 🤣
Wholesome duo.
(via @BuffaloBills)pic.twitter.com/RB7JX2Gxcd
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) September 8, 2021
In terms of bets and money, 57% of all bets and 64% of the money placed against the spread are on the Bills. The moneyline splits show 77% and 90% of the money in the moneyline bets are on the Bills. As well, 84% of the public bets are on the under. Overall, 56% of all bets and 56% of all money in total wagering is also backing the under.
Run Harris, Run
When the Steelers have been great, their running game has traditionally led the way. Think about the glory days of the 1970s when the 1-2 backfield punch of Franco Harris and Rocky Bleier helped deliver four Super Bowls. In later years, Jerome Bettis drove Pittsburgh’s bus and Le’Veon Bell led the NFL in rushing.
Do yourself a favor and place some money on Najee Harris winning offensive rookie of the year. Thank me later
pic.twitter.com/n50cl3X4Ua— CJ 🌞 (@chrisburgh) September 6, 2021
Last season, the Steelers were rock bottom in NFL rushing. They averaged 84.4 yards per game on the ground.
To combat this dilemma, Pittsburgh spent a first-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft on Alabama running back Najee Harris. He’s moved right into the starting lineup.
Just Josh-ing
How much better can Josh Allen be? The Bills quarterback is being touted as NFL MVP material and why not? He was second in MVP voting last season.
Allen’s arm strength and athleticism were never in question. He completed 69.2% of his passes last season, silencing critics of his accuracy.
We asked and you voted.
The 2021 NFL MVP will be @BuffaloBills QB @JoshAllenQB 🔵 🔴 pic.twitter.com/mr8JFiqbnU
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) September 4, 2021
Allen is the NFL version of Shohei Ohtani. He’ll beat you with his arm (37 touchdown passes) or his legs (eight TD runs).
Might Allen deliver to Buffalo what the legendary Jim Kelly never could – an MVP award and more significantly, a Super Bowl title?
Injury Report
Bills left defensive tackle Star Lotulelei (calf) is out. Newly-added veteran wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders (foot) is listed as questionable. He was limited in practice on Friday.
#Bills HC Sean McDermott told @WGR550 that DT Star Lotulelei will not play this weekend against the Steelers. He's been dealing with a calf injury.
WR Emmanuel Sanders will be questionable with a foot injury.
— Joe Buscaglia (@JoeBuscaglia) September 10, 2021
Steelers strong side linebacker Alex Highsmith (groin) is also listed as questionable. Highsmith was a full participant in Pittsburgh’s practice on Friday, however.
Trendspotting
The Bills have won the past two games against the Steelers. However, Pittsburgh has won four of the past five games played at Buffalo.
The Steelers closed out last season 1-5 straight up. Meanwhile, the Bills went 8-1 SU to finish the 2020 campaign.
Buffalo is 9-2 against the spread over the past 11 games. The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. They are 7-0 SU in their past seven home games.
If it’s ok with Yinz, I’d like to stay a while!! LETS GO PITTSBURGH!!!! pic.twitter.com/itjnF7XNLd
— TJ Watt (@_TJWatt) September 9, 2021
In Pittsburgh’s last 22 games, the under has been the winner on the total 17 times. At the same time, the over has come in through four of the Steelers’ last five games.
Steelers weakside linebacker TJ Watt signed a new four-year, $112-million ($80 million guaranteed) contract extension this week. The training camp holdout was second in the NFL last season with 15 sacks. Even with just one day of practice, he’s expected to play on Sunday. However, it’s likely that his snap count will be limited.
Pick: Buffalo Bills -6.5 (-106), 1 unit.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
