- Week 6’s edition of Sunday Night Football sees the Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Los Angeles Chargers
- SNF props record: 0-3 in Week 5; 5-10 on the season (-6.68 units)
- Let’s have a look at three interesting props for the Week 6 SNF matchup
I’m sure the NFL didn’t expect a combined 3-7 record for the Chargers and Steelers when this game was scheduled. The injury bug has bit both teams hard, taking away a superstar from each team, along with many other key contributors across the board.
— Los Angeles Chargers (@Chargers) October 11, 2019
Speaking of struggles, after an 0-3 week, my SNF record has fallen to 5-10. Sure, Sunday’s primetime matchups have been more than a little disappointing, but no excuses, it’s time for a win.
Prop 1 has me feeling confident Week 6 will be a winning week so let’s get to it.
Prop 1: Team with Most 1st Downs
|Most 1st Downs||Odds|
*All odds taken October 13
Before looking at any numbers, logic would indicate an offense featuring Philip Rivers, Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, and Austin Ekeler will produce more than an offense forced to roll with their third string QB, and a couple of decent, but not spectacular, positional players.
Steelers & Chargers 1st Downs By Week
The first thing that stands out is the Chargers have always ended up with more first downs than their opponent this season. They gain an average of 22.2 first downs per game, good for ninth in the league.
The Steelers, on the other hand, average a paltry 16.2 first downs per contest, coming in at 29th in the NFL. They have only beat the winless Bengals in first downs this year.
Pick: Chargers -182
Risk: 4 units to win 2.2 units
Prop 2: Margin of Victory
|Team (Win Margin)||Odds|
Excluding blowout wins in Week 4 against winless teams, and a shellacking by the Super Bowl champs, the Chargers and Steelers have been involved in competitive games all year.
In total, seven of the teams’ combined ten games have been decided by a touchdown or less.
You will find the Chargers favored by a TD, or a little less, depending on where you bet. The game total sits around 41.5, so a low scoring affair is expected.
Steelers & Chargers Weekly Results
Sure, some guy named Devlin Hodges is starting for the Steelers, a guy who went 7/9 for 68 yards in relief last week, nearly bringing the Steelers from behind against the Ravens. The point is, no matter how many lemons have been thrown at these teams this year, they continue to produce some at least palpable lemonade.
Pick: Chargers (1-13) +136
Risk: 1 unit to win 1.36 units
Prop 3: James Conner Rushing Yards
As the injuries pile up, healthy bodies become a premium – healthy and able bodies, anyway.
The Steelers will be without RB Jaylen Samuels this week, as he had to go under the knife after last week’s game, leaving the running duties to lead back James Conner and rookie Benny Snail, sorry Snell.
Although Conner has only averaged just over 11 carries a game so far in 2019, I would expect he will receive the lion’s share of the workload, considering Snell has averaged just over one carry per game. And with third-stringer Devlin Hodges making his first start, expect there to be plenty of work for Conner.
the Steelers have:
-a 3rd QB in
-a top WR with a screwed up toe
-another WR who they counted on who can’t catch
-another WR w a shoulder
-their top TE who can’t stay healthy
-their second RB out a month
Is it OK now to ask James Conner be the 1st-team back they told us he was?
— Colin Dunlap (@colin_dunlap) October 9, 2019
Conner’s season, like the Steelers’, has been off to a slow start. But he is showing some signs of regaining his 2018 form the last few weeks. He has rushed for over 40 yards three games in a row and has seen his average YPC float around the four yard mark the last two games.
As for the defense Conner will be running against, the Chargers have been suspect against the run all year. Last week they gave up 114 yards on 15 carries to the Broncos lightning bug Phillip Lindsay.
But Conner is more of a plodding power back, you say? Okay, well Lindsay’s backfield mate Royce Freeman put up 61 yards on 13 carries.
The Charger D is giving up 119.8 yards per game good for a very average rank of 18th. Expect Conner to rack up the rushing yards in this one.
Pick: 75+ rush yards +116
Risk: 1 unit to win 1.16 units
Let's have fun and keep it civil.