Steelers vs Texans Best Bets & Early Picks for Monday AFC Wild Card Game

• Houston has won 9 consecutive games entering the Wild Card Game
• The Texans are favored by 3.5 points on the road
• Pittsburgh hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2016 season

The Pittsburgh Steelers haven’t won a playoff game since the 2016 season.

The Houston Texans closed the regular season by winning nine games in a row. They have won AFC Wild Card games each of the past two seasons under C.J. Stroud.

Will those streaks continue or end when they meet Monday night in the AFC Wild Card Game in Pittsburgh? Kickoff is 8 pm, ET, Jan. 12 (ABC/ESPN).

The quarterbacks take center stage: Eventual Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers vs. the rising star, Stroud. This preview breaks down the betting odds, key matchups, and public sentiment to deliver expert predictions the final Wild Card Game.

Texans vs Steelers Wild Card Predictions and Best Bets

This playoff opener presents a fascinating contrast between momentum and experience. Houston is the hottest team in the NFL, but oddsmakers expect a grinding, defensive battle. With both squads healthy, this comes down to execution in critical moments and which team can better handle the postseason pressure.

Spread Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 (-118)

This line comes from BetMGM Sportsbook. Home playoff underdogs have historically been profitable bets, and the Steelers fit this profile perfectly. A team’s record as home underdogs suggests they can thrive in an undervalued role, especially with a quarterback as proven as Rodgers. More specifically, teams coming off division-clinching victories can perform well in their next game when getting points, as the emotional high often carries over while the betting public overreacts to their opponent’s hot streak.

The ultra-low total of 39.5 points tells the real story here. Every point becomes precious in these defensive slugfests, making the hook on 3.5 incredibly valuable. Player experience can give an edge in playoff debuts. Even if Houston wins 20-17, Steelers backers cash their tickets.

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Total Pick: Under 39.5 (-110)

The market is screaming defense with this historically low total, and the player props back it up.These lines suggest oddsmakers anticipate multiple field goals and red zone struggles.

Playoff defenses typically tighten up significantly, and both coordinators excel in big-game preparation. These teams didn’t meet in the regular season. First playoff games often feature conservative play-calling as teams feel out their opponents, favoring grinding drives over explosive plays. Weather won’t be a factor, but the playoff atmosphere typically leads to tighter execution and fewer big plays.

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers Odds

Odds as of January 6, 2026 from consensus sportsbooks.

The Texans enter this wild card matchup as 3.5-point road favorites, with their -182 moneyline indicating strong confidence in their ability to win outright. Pittsburgh’s +152 moneyline offers solid value for the home underdog role they’ve thrived in this season. The historically low 39.5-point total reflects oddsmakers’ expectation of a defensive battle befitting playoff football.

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers Statistical Comparison

As both teams enter their playoff opener, we turn to market projections and player props to understand how oddsmakers view each squad’s capabilities in this defensive-minded contest.

Projected Player Performance (Based on Market Props)

We’re not wagering on any of these, but it’s interesting to see what oddsmakers think about various players and key stats.

Critical Matchup Analysis

The market projections reveal telling insights about expected game flow. Houston’s offensive props suggest a slight edge in aerial attack, with Stroud projected for nearly 30 more passing yards than Rodgers. However, both quarterbacks face challenging touchdown props, with the market especially bearish on Rodgers (heavy -241 juice on under 1.5 TDs) signaling concern about Pittsburgh’s red zone efficiency against Houston’s defense.

The ground game projections are virtually identical, reinforcing the narrative of a tightly contested battle where neither team establishes clear rushing dominance.

For those reasons and others, we like the Steelers to cover the spread at home while both teams stay under the total.