By now, we all know about the magic of Super Bowl props. They let you wager on nearly every element of the big game, giving you an opportunity for action on every down, during reviews, and even while the anthem is playing. Without props, you’d be stuck betting your friend Clark that he can’t eat an entire bowl of bean dip year after year (although that bet always pays off in hilarity). Thanks to all these props, you can find a rooting interest in the game even though your team isn’t in it.
So this year, instead of cheering for the overrated Atlanta Falcons or the spoiled New England Patriots, root for obscure things like tie colors and Deflategate references, using our handy Super Bowl LI odds.
Super Bowl LI Odds
Odds to win MVP
- Tom Brady: 1/1
- Matt Ryan: 9/5
- Julio Jones: 14/1
- Julian Edelman: 20/1
- LeGarrette Blount: 22/1
- Devonta Freeman: 22/1
- Dion Lewis: 30/1
- Chris Hogan: 35/1
- Danny Amendola: 70/1
- Any Defensive Player: 30/1
- Field: 28/1
Go figure, the guy with three Super Bowl MVPs to his name is the odds-on favorite to claim a fourth. An honor that has gone to a quarterback more often than not, this year’s award will once again go to a signal caller should this game explode into the high-scoring affair we all expect.
Once in awhile, a total longshot like Malcolm Smith will come out of nowhere to get the nod, but that’s more likely to happen in a blowout. In the last ten Super Bowl’s decided by one score, a quarterback won MVP in eight, and a wide receiver got the award the other two times. So unless you think Super Bowl LI is going to devolve into a terrible game (which would be par for the course these playoffs), then stick to pitchers and catchers.
Odds to pass for the most yards
- Matt Ryan: 5/6
- Tom Brady: 6/5
Ryan averaged 10 more passing yards per game this season. The belief in Vegas is that New England will win this game, which would mean Matty Ice is playing from behind and throwing even more than usual.
Odds to rush for the most yards
- LeGarrette Blount: 2/1
- Devonta Freeman: 5/2
- Tevin Coleman: 7/2
- Dion Lewis: 6/1
- Field: 22/1
Atlanta doesn’t possess the most stout rush defense around, allowing 104.5 yards per game this season. Its strategy to stop the run is to jump out to big leads and force opponents to abandon it. Blount usually does his best work in the fourth quarter, but if the Pats are trailing, he may not get the chance.
Odds to have the most receiving yards
- Julio Jones: 8/5
- Julian Edelman: 5/1
- Chris Hogan: 7/1
- Mohamed Sanu: 7/1
- Martellus Bennett: 10/1
- Taylor Gabriel: 10/1
- Field: 15/1
New England did a good job covering Antonio Brown last week, and he still managed 77 yards. So even if they cover Jones decently, he could still put up a stat line worthy of leading the game. If they do a poor job covering him, this one’s over.
Odds of a missed extra point
- Stephen Gostkowski: 17/2
- Matt Bryant: 15/1
Over/Under number of coach’s challenges: 1
The Super Bowl coaches, Bill Belichick and Dan Quinn, barely threw the red flag this year, combining for just four challenges on the season. There’s been an average of 1.4 challenges in the Super Bowl over the last ten years, even with all scoring plays getting automatically reviewed starting back in 2011.
Odds of successfully making a Super Bowl-winning kick in the final minute (assuming they have the opportunity)
- Matt Bryant: 1/8
- Stephen Gostkowski: 1/5
Odds to score the first TD
- Julio Jones: 9/2
- Devonta Freeman: 5/1
- LeGarrette Blount: 6/1
- Mohamed Sanu: 7/1
- Martellus Bennett: 9/1
- Chris Hogan: 11/1
- Julian Edelman: 11/1
- Tevin Coleman: 14/1
- Dion Lewis: 16/1
- Field: 12/1
The Falcons have notched an opening drive touchdown in eight straight games, meaning the odds of an Atlanta player finding pay-dirt first are pretty good, even if they have a tendency to defer when they win the coin toss.
Odds on which Patriots wide receiver will be deactivated for the Super Bowl
- Michael Floyd: 1/6
- Malcolm Mitchell: 12/1
- Neither: 18/1
- Both: 32/1
Floyd was benched after a rough outing in the Divisional Round, but Mitchell didn’t inspire a ton of confidence in his first action in three weeks, dropping a pass and corralling just one of four targets for five yards. Still, Mitchell had a productive year with New England, and should be in the lineup over a guy they picked off the scrap heap a month ago.
Odds the fullbacks score a TD
- Patrick DiMarco: 30/1
- James Develin: 55/1
DiMarco is slightly more involved in the offense with 12 targets on the year to Devlin’s nine. DiMarco has also found the endzone three times over the past two seasons. The Super Bowl is often a time to dial up some trick plays for unexpected recipients, but for New England, it’s just as likely that play-call could go to Nate Solder as Devlin.
Over/Under height of the tallest player to score a TD: 6’3″
Julio Jones is listed at 6’3″, so that’s a perfect cut off. Players that are taller than that include Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Martellus Bennett, Matt Lengel, Levine Toilolo, while players shorter than that include every other Patriots wide receiver.
Over/Under weight of the heaviest player to score a TD: 249.5 lbs
LeGarrette Blount or bigger hits the over.
Odds of a TD being scored via kick return, punt return, interception return, or fumble return: 20/1
New England only had one non-offensive touchdown all season, Dion Lewis’ return against Houston in the Divisional Round. Atlanta mustered five, but all were scored by the defense off of turnovers. Trying to do that against Brady is a fool’s errand.
Odds on what color hoodie Bill Belichick wears
- Blue: 4/11
- Grey: 3/1
- Red: 40/1
- Field: 50/1
Thanks to devoted fans with a lot of time on their hands, we have all the data required to make an informed decision here. Apparently, he’s been favoring blue all season, riding with it in all but three games, including both playoff wins. Blue was also the color of choice in the Patriots last Super Bowl win in 2015, too. As for red, it’s pretty much out of the question. That was the color of choice during the dreaded 2008 loss to the Giants, and hasn’t been seen on the sidelines since.
Odds that Fox replay official Mike Pereira is wrong on the first coach’s challenge: 7/3
Pereira is no Mike Carey. In fact, he’s usually right; it’s just a matter of whether the referees on the field share the same view as him.
Odds of Joe Buck being clean shaven for the Super Bowl broadcast: 10/1
Clean-shaven Joe Buck looks weird. He probably won’t subject America to that on such a big day.
Odds on the primary color of Joe Buck’s tie
- Blue: 1/5
- Purple: 14/1
- Red: 16/1
- Field: 9/1
Odds on the primary color of Troy Aikman’s tie
- Blue: 2/3
- Purple: 6/1
- Red: 6/1
- Field: 7/1
Odds on the pattern of Joe Buck’s tie
- Solid: 9/8
- Stripes: 3/2
- Polka-Dots: 12/1
- Field: 14/1
Odds on the pattern of Troy Aikman’s tie
- Stripes: 8/7
- Solid: 5/3
- Polka-Dots: 13/1
- Field: 9/1
Over/Under Troy Aikman references to one of his Super Bowl games: 1.5
Odds on the first DeflateGate reference by Buck /Aikman (or sideline reporters)
- 1st quarter: 7/4
- 2nd quarter: 5/3
- 3rd quarter: 5/1
- 4th quarter: 8/1
Odds the word DeflateGate is not mentioned by Buck/Aikman (or the sideline reporters) during the game: 8/1
Over/Under number of sideline reports from Erin Andrews during the game broadcast (between the opening kickoff and the final play): 5.5
Odds all four Fox Studio analysts (Terry Bradshaw, Howie Long, Michael Strahan, Jimmy Johnson) pick the Patriots to win: 3/1
Over/Under on the length of Luke Bryan’s National Anthem: 1 minute 58 seconds
He was slightly over two minutes at the MLB All-Star game in 2012, but the Super Bowl is a whole new kettle of fish. (I don’t really understand that idiom at all, I just really wanted to use it). Seven of the last ten anthems have gone under the total.
Odds on the color of Luke Bryan’s shirt
- Black: 5/4
- White: 3/1
- Red, White & Blue: 8/1
- Field: 4/1
Odds Luke Bryan wears cowboy boots and blue jeans: 4/1
Odds Luke Bryan puts his hand on his heart during the anthem: 1/6
Odds Luke Bryan uses a cheat sheet during the anthem: 19/1
In the smallest offense that I guess could still be considered a controversy, Luke Bryan was caught checking the lyrics to the Star Spangled Banner during his MLB All-Star Game rendition. I guess ensuring you don’t screw the song up is just as bad as actually screwing up?
Odds Lady Gaga sings …
- Bad Romance: 1/1
- Born This Way: 13/2
- Edge of Glory: 10/1
- Poker Face: 22/1
- Paparazzi: 30/1
- Perfect Illusion: 35/1
- Million Reasons: 40/1
- Field: 4/1
Odds of a surprise guest joining Lady Gaga on stage at the Super Bowl show: 1/2
Odds of Lady Gaga making an anti-Trump political statement during her performance (visual or vocal): 10/13
Over/under number of Lady Gaga wardrobe changes during the performance: 2
Odds on the primary color of Lady Gaga’s hair when she’s first on stage
- Blond: 2/3
- Brown: 3/1
- Pink: 10/1
- Field: 14/1
Odds of Lady Gaga’s belly button being visible when she begins her performance: 5/8
Feature photo credit: Peter Bond (Flickr)[https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.0/]
Let's have fun and keep it civil.