Texans vs Chargers Expert Picks & Predictions (Dec 27)

• The Chargers are 2-point favorites over the Texans on Saturday
• Houston ranks first in total defense this season
• See my Texans vs Chargers expert picks and predictions for Dec. 27

Underdogs were a perfect 3-0 on Christmas Day, and I expect the ‘dogs to keep barking in Saturday’s Houston Texans (10-5, 4-3 away) vs Los Angeles Chargers (11-4, 6-2 home) showdown at 1:30 pm PT/4:30 pm ET.

Houston is currently catching a couple points in the NFL odds, but I’m confident their ferocious defense is going to be able to silence Justin Herbert and company, just like they did in last year’s Wild Card game.

Keep reading for all of my Texans vs Chargers expert picks and predictions for Saturday’s AFC matchup below.

Texans vs Chargers Expert Picks

• Houston Texans +2 at Fanatics

This game has implications for both teams in the NFL playoff bracket. Houston can clinch a postseason berth with a win, while LA needs a victory overt the Texans and a win at Denver in Week 18 to claim the AFC West.

Both Houston and the Chargers enter play riding winning streaks of at least four games, but I believe the LA run is a bit of fool’s gold.

Prior to last week, the Chargers offense had been in a total funk thanks to their offensive line injuries, most notably to stud tackle Joe Alt. LA is a top-five offense per most metrics when Alt suits up, but a bottom-five unit when he sits.

The Chargers averaged less than 19 points per game in Weeks 11 through 15, while Herbert threw for more than 151 yards only once. In Week 16 however, LA lit up Dallas 34-17, but there’s a big difference between the Cowboys and Texans defense.

Dallas ranks last in defensive EPA/play. Houston ranks first. The Cowboys have surrendered the most passing yards and touchdowns to enemy QB’s. The Texans on the other hand, rank top-five in both of those categories. Houston is also second in pass rush win and third in coverage grade, and destroyed the Chargers with a healthy Alt in last year’s Wild Card Game 32-12.

The Texans limited LA to 261 total yards in that outing, and picked off Herbert four times. They also racked up four sacks and five tackles for loss, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they have Herbert running for his life all game. The Chargers surrendered 16 sacks in Weeks 11 through 15, all to teams who boast inferior pass rushes than Houston.

Houston Texans Defensive Stats

As for Texans side of things on offense, don’t be fooled by last week’s underwhelming performance versus the Raiders. Houston was uninspiring in their victory, but it was a big let down spot after four straight dominant wins, and with LA on deck.

CJ Stroud has been excellent since returning from injury, ranking sixth in EPA / play and ninth in completion percentage over expectation since Week 13. The Texans should get running back Woody Marks back for this game, whose explosiveness they severely missed last time out.

The matchup versus the Chargers top-five defense is no picnic, but Houston would be wise to mimic division rival Jacksonville’s game plan from their blowout victory over LA a few weeks ago. Jacksonville ran the ball relentlessly, wearing down the Chargers front. The Jags rushed for nearly 200 yards and four scores in that matchup, while leaning on their stout defense to give Herbert fits.

Ultimately, I see a low scoring battle between these two Super Bowl 60 odds longshots. I’ll take the team with the better defense, and the much healthier offensive line, placing most of my action on the Texans +2, with a sprinkle on their +110 moneyline as well.

Texans vs Chargers Predictions

• Justin Herbert Under 1.5 Touchdowns (-154) at DraftKings

Moving over to the NFL player props market, where I’m betting under 1.5 touchdowns for Herbert. He’s fallen short of this line four times in his last six starts, while no team gives up less total production to opposing QB’s than Houston.

In Herbert’s last four outings versus top-15 pass defenses (KC, PHI, PIT, JAX), he’s averaged only 137.5 passing yards and 1 TD per start.

HOU Texans vs LA Chargers

Before making any NFL wager, be sure to consult the top football betting apps. The best place to bet Houston against the spread is at Fanatics, who are offering a +2 line at -110 odds. If you want to buy the hook, you can do so at DraftKings for a -123 price, but most commercial books have lowered the spread to +1.5.

Odds as of Dec. 26. New customers can claim the DraftKings promo code and get a bonus to bet on Week 17.

Per the NFL public betting percentages, the Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five outings, and have covered in three straight as underdogs.