- The Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs clash in the AFC Championship on Sunday (Jan. 19, 3:05 pm ET)
- Our Divisional round props were 1-3 last week
- Patrick Mahomes has thrown eight touchdown passes in his last two playoff starts
Championship Sunday in the NFL is upon us and there’s no better way to spend the day than making a bevy of prop bets.
The action kicks off with the Titans and Chiefs from Kansas City, in a game that is expected to produce plenty of points.
The AFC Championship carries a total of 53 which means online sportsbooks are expecting another big day from the 2018 MVP.
Prop #1: Patrick Mahomes Over/Under 2.5 Passing TDs
All odds taken Jan. 16th
Patrick Mahomes was the lone bright spot from last week’s prop article throwing for 321 yards and five touchdowns.
He easily eclipsed his passing TDs prop and he should be in line for an encore performance on Sunday. In his last two playoff starts, he’s thrown eight touchdowns and no interceptions.
KC is a 7.5-point favorite and carry an implied team total of 30.5. Before you start questioning whether or not the Chiefs will hit that mark, consider that just once in Mahomes’ career, KC has fallen short of 26 points at home in a game he started.
"Once Patrick Mahomes gets a rhythm it's over. Seven straight possessions and you get points, that's unheard of. I'm not taking a quarterback currently playing, Brady, Rodgers, Lamar or Russell, over that guy." — @ShannonSharpe pic.twitter.com/HkxpK62VkW
— UNDISPUTED (@undisputed) January 13, 2020
If the online sportsbooks expect four touchdowns from the Chiefs offense, the majority of them are likely to come from the arm of Mahomes.
The Titans generate pressure at the third lowest clip in the league, and KC’s top weapons (Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce) both have plus matchups.
These two teams met in Week 10 in Tennessee and Mahomes torched the Titans defense for 446 yards and three touchdown passes.
Pick: Mahomes Over 2.5 touchdown passes (+110)
Risk: 1 unit to win 1.1 units
Prop #2: Damien Williams Over/Under 3 Receptions
Williams came up 2.5 yards short of hitting his receiving prop for us last week, but it wasn’t for a lack of opportunity. He was on the field for 55-of-57 offensive snaps and drew six targets, two of which he caught.
He’s now seen 16 targets in the past three games and his matchup versus Tennessee is quite favorable.
Patrick Mahomes ? Damien Williams for the 17-yard TD. pic.twitter.com/6qSkpDhqEq
— Sporting News (@sportingnews) January 12, 2020
The Titans defense allowed 101 receptions to running backs this season and so far in two playoff games, they allowed five to Baltimore and 10 to New England.
If Williams continues to dominate the Chiefs RB snaps, and there’s no reason to think he won’t after scoring three touchdowns last week, he should definitely have ample opportunity to go over this prop.
Pick: Williams Over 3 receptions (-142)
Risk: 1 unit to win 0.7 units
Prop #3: Ryan Tannehill Over/Under 226.5 Passing Yards
This is the spot where Tennessee is finally going to have to throw the ball. Sure, Derrick Henry will get his touches, but there’s going to come a point in this game (probably early on) where the Titans are forced to air it out.
Ryan Tannehill has thrown the ball just 29 times this postseason, but Tennessee controlled both of their first two playoff games and that’s unlikely to happen again at Arrowhead. In wins this season, Tannehill has averaged just 21 passes attempts per start. In losses however, that number balloons to 34.
Tannehill in Losses This Season
Tannehill led the NFL in yards per attempt and passer rating this season, and the Chiefs defense is fresh off surrendering 348 passing yards to Deshaun Watson in the Divisional round.
His outlook is further boosted by the fact that KC is expected to be without Chris Jones, one of their most important pass rushers.
Pick: Tannehill Over 226.5 passing yards (-113)
Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units