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Titans vs Jaguars Prop Bets: Finding Value On and Against Leonard Fournette

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Sep 19, 2019 · 8:00 AM PDT

Leonard Fournette
Leonard Fournette and the Jaguars host the Titans on Thursday Night Football. Photo from @PHLEaglesNation. (Twitter.)
  • Week 3 kicks off with Titans and Jaguars on Thursday Night Football
  • Our TNF props were 1-2 last week for -1.36 units (-2.46 units for the season)
  • There is value betting on and against Leonard Fournette

Week 2 was just as unkind to us as Week 1 from a betting perspective, but we’re on to Jacksonville now trying to find value in an AFC South slugfest.

Prop #1: Leonard Fournette Over/Under 3.5 Receptions

Leonard Fournette Receptions Odds
Over 3.5 -113
Under 3.5 -113

*All odds taken 9/19/19

The Jaguars spoke all preseason about how they wanted to get Leonard Fournette more involved in the passing game and so far they’ve stuck to their word. He’s hauled in four catches in each of the Jags first two games (on 12 total targets) and now gets to face a Titans’ defense that’s allowed ten running back receptions so far this season.

Fournette has played on 92% of Jacksonville’s offensive snaps and has run the fourth-most routes (62) of any running back in the league, ahead of prominent pass catchers like Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott and James Conner. Expect Fournette to draw plenty of targets from new quarterback Gardner Minshew who has shown a propensity to opt for short, high percentage throws.

Pick: Fournette Over 3.5 receptions (-113)

Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units

Prop #2: Leonard Fournette Over/Under 72.5 Rushing Yards

Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards Odds
Over 72.5 -113
Under 72.5 -113

Another reason to believe that Fournette will have a big role in the passing game versus the Titans is because he should struggle to run the ball. Through two games, he’s averaging just 4.0 yards per rush and hasn’t exceeded 15 carries in either contest.

The Jags grade out as the second worst run blocking unit in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus, and they rush the ball at the league’s 21st lowest rate.

The Titans meanwhile, are a top-12 run defense according to PFF’s metrics, and held number one backs Nick Chubb and Marlon Mack to an average of 3.4 yards per rush on 37 carries this season.

Pick: Fournette Under 72.5 rushing yards (-113)

Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units

Prop #3: Derrick Henry Over/Under 75.5 Rushing Yards

Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Odds
Over 75.5 -113
Under 75.5 -113

You’d be hard pressed to find someone who likes playing Jacksonville more than Derrick Henry does. The last time they met, he rocked them for 238 rushing yards and four scores on just 17 carries.

No team is more eager to establish the run than Tennessee and they should have no problem doing so against a defense that’s allowed well over a 100 yards on the ground in back-to-back games. Henry has eclipsed 80 yards on the ground in each of his first two starts this season and more importantly has dominated the Titans backfield work, earning 34 carries compared to just six for Dion Lewis. Tennessee also has a huge edge up front, ranking top-8 in run blocking according to PFF, while the Jags are a bottom-13 tackling defense.

Pick: Henry Over 75.5 rushing yards (-113)

Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units

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