Titans vs Patriots Wild Card Picks & Odds – More Bets on Tennessee, More Money on New England

• The New England Patriots started 8-0 but finished the season 4-4 in their final eight games
• Tennessee was 7-3 with Ryan Tannehill as their starting quarterback
• Derrick Henry finished the season as the NFL’s leading rusher

With a stunning home loss to the Miami Dolphins, the New England Patriots blew a chance at a bye week. Instead, they’ll host the Tennessee Titans this coming Saturday.

Bettors seem split on this game as more money is on New England, but more of the tickets are on Tennessee.

What’s the best bet in this spot?

Tennessee Titans vs New England Patriots Handle & Odds

Odds taken Jan. 2

Patriots Have Faded Down the Stretch

After their first eight games of the year, people were wondering if the Patriots could go undefeated this season. As we enter the playoffs, many are now wondering whether the Pats dynasty is coming to an end.

The team finished their final eight games just 4-4 and really faded down the stretch.

Quarterback Tom Brady still had a strong season with 4,057 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and eight picks, but consider the trajectory: he had 10 touchdowns in his first five games; he had just 14 touchdowns in his remaining 11 contests.

Over his final seven games, Brady averaged a measly 217.3 yards passing per game. He had completion percentages of 55.3% or lower in six of his final seven contests. As for the defense, the unit that allowed a total of 48 points in their first eight games allowed 21.6 over their final five.

The Patriots could have really used a bye to re-group. Now they’re forced to play an extra playoff game against a Titans team that has been a tough opponent this season.

Can Titans Regain Their Momentum?

The Titans got a huge spark from Ryan Tannehill under center when Marcus Mariota was benched. The team started 6-1 under Tannehill and grew into a playoff contender. However, they lost two of their final three games with the only win coming against a Houston Texans team that was resting starters.

Tannehill has given the passing game a huge shot in the arm as he finished the season with the league’s second-best passer rating, fifth-best QBR and averaged 9.6 yards-per-attempt (over a full yard better than any other quarterback). That’s given more room for Derrick Henry to run wild, which helped him finish as the league’s leading rusher.

Give them nothing! But TAKE from them EVERYTHING! ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/D4cN7eglFf

— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) January 2, 2020

Can Tannehill and the offense keep this up or is this mostly a flash in the pan?

The home losses to the Texans and New Orleans Saints in December suggest that it’s more of the former than the latter.

Where the Money Lies

The Patriots genuinely look vulnerable in this spot as their offense is struggling, Brady isn’t quite right and they have almost no running game to speak of (3.8 yards-per carry).

The question is are the Titans a team that can take advantage in this spot? We’re not quite sure – especially on the road.

Bettors seem to agree as 53% of the handle is on the Patriots but 52% of the wager count is on the Titans. 84% of the sharp money is on the Patriots but the line has moved in the opposite direction from Patriots -5.5 to Patriots -4.5.

Although I have a slight lean on the Titans here, I think the best play is the under. The Patriots defense is going to load up to stop Derrick Henry and if he’s cut-off or limited, the Titans passing game will be put in more predictable situations.

As for the Patriots, their passing game has been a mess over the last two months and they’re going up against a decent secondary. Safety Kevin Byard and corner Logan Ryan are among two of the best at their position and if Ryan can slow Julian Edelman even a little bit, the Patriots will have a tough time moving the chains.

What’s the Best Bet?

What I am expecting in this game is a defensive struggle with both teams having trouble moving the ball. The Titans are on the road in the cold and the Patriots defense – Week 17 aside – is generally pretty effective. As for the Pats, they’re not an explosive team, so they really have to grind out their points.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GL7PfZvzI74

Also remember that both teams have kicking issues as the Titans are now using Greg Joseph, who is the team’s fourth kicker of the season. He hasn’t been asked to try a single field goal as of yet.

As for the Patriots, they’re using Nick Folk, who was solid down the stretch but he’s had kicking issues in the past.

I like the under in this spot as I don’t think we’re going to see a lot of points in this game. This should be a defensive struggle from start to finish and I’d be surprised if both teams made it to the 20’s.